Around the Diamond

2006 All Bargain Team...so far

            Two months into the season.  Stats are starting to level off.  Hot starts are cooling down and cold starts are heating up.  Your stars, for the most part, are doing what they’re supposed to be doing.  Albert Pujols is proving worthy of his #1 pick status in most leagues and 26^th rounder Aaron Hill is showing why he went where he did in most drafts.  But what everyone loves, what wins fantasy championships, is that sleeper pick of yours that you squeezed by for a buck or grabbed in the super late rounds to a multi-owner chorus of “Who?”  That’s why this week is dedicated to the 2006 All Bargain Team…so far.  I’ll give you the winners for each position and we’ll see if they’re going to be members for the season, or just the first installment.

Catcher -- This was a close one, but the nod goes to Atlanta’s Brian McCann, who was given the starting job this year after the trade of Johnny Estrada (my next choice).  McCann got off to a hot start in April, and here we are in May and the only thing slowing him down is a sprained ankle suffered last week.  He is hitting .347 right now with 5 HR and 21 RBI. His .399 OBP ranks 4^th among active catchers (minimum 100 AB) and he leads them all in slugging (.554).  While I see these averages coming down through a full season, he will still probably hit .300 for the year with decent power; somewhere between 15-20 HR is probable.  Considering his average draft position was around 225 in mixed leagues, he has definitely become a solid value pick.

1^st Base – Drafted on the average of the 194^th position in mixed leagues (mostly as an OF), Oakland’s Nick Swisher has been on a tear.  His .299-14-37-40 is very impressive and the only guys with better power numbers are the guys who went in the first few rounds.  He has tremendous potential to be a solid 30 HR guy, but he is a free swinger and his 2 to 1 K/BB ratio is a bit disturbing.  Look for him to settle somewhere in the mid 20’s for the long ball with an underwhelming .260ish batting average.  Honorable mention goes to Boston’s Kevin Youkilis who has, so far, been earning his keep pretty well considering his lowly draft position.

2^nd Base – I’ve been waiting to say this for some time now, so here it is…that Dan Uggla is lookin’ real pretty right now.  Not even on most mixed leagues’ drafts at all and somewhere around the 200^th choice in NL-only leagues, Uggla has been very impressive with his .315-6-23-33-3 batting line.  Not to mention, he’s clubbing lefties (.378) better than he is righties (.293).  As long as he remains in the 2 hole, hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera, it doesn’t look like his numbers will drop off that dramatically.  He is slowly becoming a must start in all leagues.

Shortstop -- The honors here go to the other member of the Marlins middle infield, Hanley Ramirez.  Despite being a top prospect and given a starting position, Ramirez received no respect from owners being drafted somewhere around 238^th.  He’s answered them back by hitting .335 and is tied for third in the majors with 16 stolen bases.  With the exception of a bad year in Double-A last year he has always been an on-base machine and that looks to be the case this year with his .411 OBP, second only to Derek Jeter.  Despite the team’s overall struggles, Ramirez should blossom this year into an elite leadoff guy and his 84% success rate in stolen bases shows that we are going to see some great numbers from him by year’s end.

3^rd Base – Drafted on an average of 237th in most mixed leagues, White Sox third sacker Joe Crede wins with his current line of .292-8-30.  He also probably went pretty cheaply in most auctions so his value right now makes him the finest investment you never really need to make at third.  Unfortunately, this is Joe Crede we’re talking about and here in his 7^th pro season, we know what to expect.  Sure he’ll mash you between 20 and 25 HR this year, but thast average is going to drop…hard.  He’ll probably end up around 30 to 40 points lower than where it is at right now.  Honorable mention has to go to Ty Wigginton.  Probably a waiver pickup in every league, his 11 HR was more than anyone could have expected.  And don’t look now, but rumors are circulating that the Rays will bench Travis Lee and move Wiggy over to first for a full time gig.

Outfield – With so many outfielders, I was forced to give the award to the top 3 value plays.  The Devil Rays’ Jonny Gomes (185^th average draft position), Colorado’s Brad Hawpe (231) and Cleveland’s Casey Blake (241) make my top 3 as each one of them not only started out hot, but have sustained their production through the first 2 months.  We’ll start with Gomes, as his draft position average is slightly skewed.  He started off being drafted as low as 236^th, but with a little pre-season hype and the “super sleeper” tag most people started putting on him, he climbed up draft boards pretty quickly.  Still, the .274-14-39 is much more than what you would expect from a guy drafted so far down the line.  However, while most owners are probably trying to sell him at a premium, be careful.  They’ll point out his 31 walks and his current .389 OBP but what they won’t tell you is that he only hits .214 against right handed pitching and he’s struck out 56 times in 164 at bats.  What’s that, 34%?  I see 30+ HRs, but probably only an average around .260.  Hawpe, on the other hand, is a different story.  When was the last time you saw a member of the Rockies hit better on the road than at Coors Field?  While all the hype has been for Matt Holliday, this soon to be 27 year old is on pace for a breakout season.  He’s hitting .329 (.360 on the road vs .293 at home – the anti-Bichette) with 10 HR and 30 RBI and should probably come very close to 30 dingers on the year. You can’t ignore the Coors effect, so don’t expect that average to drop too far either.  He looks like a great choice all year long.   And finally, there’s Casey at the bat.  Wow.  .354-9-34 and now throw in 5 SB?  We’re getting a lot out of Blake for where he was drafted.  We’ve always known that he has great power potential, but where did this average come from?  He’s crushing right handed pitching (.387), he’s respectable against lefties as well (.288), and his strikeout to walk ratio is only 1.5/1.  While all very impressive, I’m still skeptical.  Let’s see how he responds to his first big slump of the year.

Starting Pitcher – For the starters, I thought it fair to give the award to one AL player and one from the NL.  I’ll begin with my NL choice, Bronson Arroyo who was traded to the Reds just prior to the season.  In his first go around in the National League, Arroyo has surprised most with his 6 wins, 53 K’s and 2.29 ERA.  What’s more impressive is the 1.061 WHIP, having issued only 14 walks in more than 70 innings.  His control is great and the switching of leagues has been great.  However, he remains a “sell high” candidate as his second go around the league may not be as kind.  Not to mention, Great American Ballpark plays like a sandbox and he may fall victim to the long ball.  Still, having been drafted on average of 206^th in mixed leagues, he has been a great value play.  My choice for the AL goes to Tigers rookie Justin Verlander.  While he was moderately hyped as a sleeper with his 100 mph fastball and his looping 12-6 curve, he fell as low as 350^th in some drafts; his average position was somewhere around 242.  Well, he also has 6 wins with 34 K’s and is the proud owner of a beautiful 2.70 ERA.  His 1.10 WHIP and low walk total of 16 in 60 innings are also making a lot of people take notice.  He has nasty stuff and the Tigers are playing great ball.  He probably will fall off the 20 win pace at some point, but 12-15 wins are a definite possibility.

Closer – I was going to do one for each league, but I just can’t allow anyone to share the honors with Jonathan Papelbon.  What this guy has done has been outstanding.  Virtually un-hittable.  16 saves, a 0.36 ERA and almost a strikeout per inning.  His average draft position was around 175, but again, slightly skewed as a lot of drafts took place after he was named the new closer for Boston.  Before that, he was drafted as low as 321^st in mixed leagues.  For those that took the shot on him, the benefits to reap are plentiful.  What more can I say about him other than I wish he was on my team?  He should do this all year long.

            So there it is…congratulations to the winners and congratulations to you if you were insightful enough to grab some of these guys.  We’ll watch all of these guys and see where they end up come mid-season when the “All Bargain Team…so far” continues.

We always hear from fantasy experts when they are right about some player you never heard of before, but do they own up to their mistakes?  It’s all about accountability when you’re trusting someone to give you fantasy advice. You can check mine out over at RotoBuzz.

Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and current 2005 Fantasy Baseball champion.  For questions, thoughts or comment, you can write to him at hbender26@yahoo.com.