Fantasy : Draft Prep: Busted : Fantasy Baseballese

I�m not generally one to hold grudges, so forgive me if I use this venue to air my grievances against a certain Astros� third baseman whose initials are Morgan Ensberg. You see, about this time last year, this Ensberg fella was quite the promising commodity in fantasy baseball circles, and I had my eye on him. There was, after all, reason to look.

Ensberg had just come off a rather impressive showing in 2003, hitting a solid .291 with a robust 25 bombs and 60 RBIs � in only 385 at-bats. Throw in his 69 runs scored, a sexy .907 OPS, and the fact that he was tucked in a lineup featuring proven fantasy studs like Lance Berkman, Jeff Kent, Jeff Bagwell, and Craig Biggio, and you can see why I was so high on Ensberg. Not to mention, he was playing his home games in a park that�s responsible for more yard work than Martha Stewart in May.

In short, Ensberg was primed for a monster year, so you might have imagined my excitement upon acquiring his services in the ninth round of my March draft. Needless to say, I was ready to reap the rewards of a breakout season waiting to happen.

Three months, 208 at-bats � believe me, I just counted � and 0 (that�s �z-e-r-o�!) home runs later, I knew I�d been had. By July, it was long past due to say good riddance to Ensberg. Annoyed for essentially bringing this embarrassment and aggravation upon myself, I could think of only one thing to say as I disposed of my Ensberg rubbish: My bad.

Or perhaps more appropriately: My bust. That�s just what Morgan Ensberg was � a bust. Lucky for me, I�d somehow managed to draft Aramis Ramirez, too, so I wound up okay at third base in the end. But that�s not the point. The point is that I�m here to try to prevent everyone from suffering through a similarly damaging experience.

Well, now that I�ve got that off my chest, here�s a look at some hitters that are primed for Pamela Anderson-sized busts.

Adrian Beltre (3B, SEA): It�s the unofficial Breakout Equation: Notorious Underachiever + Contract Year = Cha-Ching! But now that Beltre�s broken out and cashed in, don�t expect a repeat of his ridiculous, dollar-driven .334, 48, 121 performance.

Melvin Mora (3B, BAL): With so many studs at 3B, let another manager waste a fourth- round pick on this injury-prone player who, until last year, had failed to reach even 20 homers or 65 RBIs in a season.

Jeff Kent (2B, LA): Second base is a shallow position, meaning someone will overpay for the aging

Kent

. Let them, because you�re better off taking Mark Loretta or Marcus Giles later, especially since

Kent

now calls pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium his home.

David Wright (3B, NYM): Don�t get me wrong: Wright is good. But buying into the hype and taking him before Round 8 to be your starting third-sacker this year (based on only half a season) is the equivalent of drafting Jose Reyes as your starting 2B last year. And we all know how that turned out.

Mike Lowell (3B, FLA): Here�s a good example of a proven 3B I�d take instead of reaching for Wright. But what Lowell has proven is that he�s what I call a �Fourth of July Guy� because that date signals the end of his value. Be sure to trade him before the fireworks.

Carlos Guillen (SS, DET): There is a downside to being the biggest fantasy surprise of the previous season � being atop the list of candidates for biggest bust this time around.

J.D. Drew (OF, LA): Funny how a contract year can motivate an injury-riddled player to reach 500 ABs for the first time in his career. If that�s not suspicious enough for you, how about this: Drew still hasn�t reached the 100-RBIs plateau.

Mike Piazza (C, NYM): Here�s another unofficial formula: Accomplished Athlete + Famous Girl = Career Suicide (think: Tiger, Andre, Nomar). The fact that Piazza just married ex-Playmate and Baywatch actress Alicia Rickter � and the fact that he hasn�t accomplished much the past two years to begin with � should turn you off.

Paul Konerko (1B, CWS): Don�t let last year�s 41 homers and 117 RBIs lead you on � Konerko (.280, 27, 93 in six full seasons) is more Sean Casey (.305, 17, 83) than you think. And that includes Casey�s awful 2002: .261, 6, 42.

Michael Young (SS, TEX): Young won�t be a total bust. Just expect stats closer to 2003 (.306, 14, 72) than 2004 (.313, 22, 99), and draft accordingly.

Vinny Castilla (3B, WSH): Last year�s NL RBIs leader with 131 � yeah, you read that right � leaves the cozy confines of Colorado. That means you leave him off your roster.

Jose Guillen (OF, WSH): You need a head case like Guillen on your team like you need a hole in your head � and your lineup.

Jimmy Rollins (SS, PHI): Think 2005�s Edgar Renteria: a solid player at a shallow SS position whose overrated career year catapults him into an unjustifiably high draft spot, thus resulting in widespread disappointment among his owners upon outrageously overpaying for a season more in line with his career numbers.

Remember, if you do your homework and keep this list in mind, you just might avoid being �Ensberg-ed� on draft day.

Next week: pitcher busts.

Email comments, suggestions, advice, information, and hate-mail to JayCat11@aol.com