The This and That of Fantasy Football

Season Recap and Playoff Preview

2004 was one of the most interesting seasons for fantasy football players. There were many impressive stories and sub-plots that will make for an intriguing and deep draft next season. Many players stepped up out of nowhere like Muhsin Muhammad and many like Jamal Lewis sorely disappointed. Here are some interesting developments from this season.

Peyton was the best, but don’t forget about Daunte: Peyton Manning enjoyed a record-breaking season, as he tossed 49 TDs to go along with 4,557 yards passing. Peyton’s previous high for TDs in a season was 33 and his previous high in yards was 4,413. Manning also threw only 10 INTs. Obviously, the offensive line can never get enough credit, but the Colts also had three 1,000 yard receivers in Reggie Wayne (1,210 yards), Marvin Harrison (1,113 yards) and Brandon Stokley (1,077). The potent passing game allowed Edgerrin James to run all over defenses to the tune of 1,548 yards rushing and 483 yards receiving.

Lost in Manning’s brilliance was the play of Daunte Culpepper. Yes, the Vikings stink. But, it wasn’t Daunte’s fault. Culpepper led the league in passing with 4,717 yards. He also had 39 TDs and 11 INTs. Imagine what he could have done if Randy Moss (hamstring) hadn’t missed five games and parts of two others. Moss’ season was obviously affected by the injury, but he still scored 13 times in 13 games. Moss had 49 catches for 767 yards. Culpepper made Nate Burleson (68 catches for 1006 yards and nine TDs) his favorite target when Moss was out. Manning and Culpepper will make a lot of people forget the “you have to take a RB in the first round” theory for next season’s draft.

Don’t forget about the veterans: I admit I’m a guy that always looks past most veteran players in the draft. But, I’ll rethink that a little, especially considering that many times you can get veteran players late in the draft. The veteran that had the best year was Curtis Martin. Martin, at the age of 31, became the oldest player in history to lead the league in rushing with 1,697 yards. Martin also scored 14 TDs. In all the drafts I was in, Martin was dissed over and over as guys took RBs like T.J. Duckett and Michael Bennett before him. But, if you look at 2003 stats, Martin rushed for 1,308 yards. His ugly stat from 2003 was that he only scored two TDs, but his 1,308 rushing yards should have made him go higher than he did in most drafts.

Another veteran who got the job done in a big way was Muhsin Muhammad. After Steve Smith broke his leg in the first game of the season, Jake Delhomme looked to Muhammad with increasing regularity as the season went on. Muhammad, also 31, posted career highs in yardage (1,405) and TDs (16). Muhammad’s play was something I don’t think could have been forecasted at all. He has not had a 1,000 yard season since 2000 (1,183 yards). The big question is where to draft him next year. I think it depends what team he is playing for. Muhammad will be a free agent in March, and Smith has been lobbying management to resign him. But, Muhammad is due a $10 million roster bonus in March, which will probably lead to him signing elsewhere.

I have to mention the NFL’s all-time leading rusher Emmitt Smith and Jerome Bettis as well. I told my brother-in-law that I wouldn’t spend even a late pick on Emmitt. Well, Emmitt proved me wrong by rushing for 937 yards and nine TDs at age 35. Jerome Bettis at age 32 also came up big for the Steelers first as a goal-line specialist, then as a highly productive starter, Bettis scored three short TDs in week one. In week nine, he made his first start of the season for Duce Staley (hamstring) and rushed for 149 yards on 33 carries. Bettis started six games and recorded 100-yard games in all of them. Bettis finished with 941 yards rushing and 13 TDs.

The year of the TE: I used to ignore TEs for most of the draft, because someone always took Tony Gonzalez way too early in my opinion. But, you can’t ignore the position anymore. Antonio Gates set a record for most TDs by a TE in a season with 13. Tony Gonzalez, not to be outdone, set a record for most receptions by a TE in a season with 102. Gates had 964 yards receiving, and Gonzalez had the second 1,000 yard season of his career with 1,258 yards. Gonzalez led all TEs in catches in 2003 with 71, but Gonzalez, Jason Witten (87), Eric Johnson (82), Gates (81) and Randy McMichael (73) all topped that.

Drew Brees is the comeback player of the year: The Chargers drafted Phillip Rivers fourth overall and expected him to be the starter. But, Rivers held out and in the door came Drew Brees. Brees struggled last year passing for 2,108 yards, 11 TDs and 15 INTs in 11 games. This season Brees silenced all the criticism passing for 3,159 yards, 27 TD and seven INTs. Brees also rushed for two TDs and helped lead the Chargers to the playoffs with a 12-4 record.  

Young Guns: Next season’s draft for RBs will be as deep as any in recent memory. While usual reliables Ahman Green (one TD in his last seven games), Clinton Portis (career-lows in yardage and TDs), Jamal Lewis (1,006 yards) and Deuce McAllister (1,074 yards) struggled at times due to injuries and inconsistency, many younger RBs made strong cases to be drafted much higher next season. Rookie Julius Jones (seven TDs in eight games) showed the speed and cutback ability that should make him a huge star. Fellow rookie Kevin Jones chug-a-lugged his way to 1,133 yards. Second-year players Willis McGahee (1,128 yards rushing and 13 TDs) and  Domanick Davis (1,776 combined yards with 14 TDs) strutted their stuff. Second-year back Chris Brown was off to a great season before turf toe caused him to miss five games, but he still rushed for 1,067 yards, averaging 4.9 yards a carry. Third-year pro Rudi Johnson rushed for a club-record 1,454 yards and scored 12 TDs. Just writing about all these guys makes me wish I could draft right now.

Priest Holmes, LaDainian Tomlinson and Shaun Alexander: The debate for the number-one pick this past season was Priest or LaDainian. For next season’s draft, Tomlinson and Alexander will have to be strongly considered for the number-one spot, while Holmes will likely slip a little. Tomlinson (1,776 combined yards) scored in 12 straight games, had a total of 18 TDs and will turn 26 in June. Alexander (second in the league in rushing by a yard with 1,696 yards) is the only player in NFL history to score at least 16 TDs in four straight years. This season he had 20. Holmes’ stock will fall, because he missed eight games with a knee injury. When he played, he was brilliant scoring 15 TDs, but he’s also going to be 32 next season.

Wait on WRs next season in your draft: A total of 23 wideouts eclipsed the 1,000 yard mark this season. Players like Muhammad, Drew Bennett (1,247 yards and 11 TDs), Reggie Wayne (1,210 yards and 12 TDs), Donald Driver (1,208 yards and nine TDs), Michael Clayton (1,193 yards and seven TDs), Jimmy Smith (1,172 yards and six TDs), Rod Smith (1,144 yards and seven TDs) Eddie Kennison (1,086 yards and eight TDs), Ashley Lelie (1,084 yards and seven TDs), Brandon Stokley (1,077 yards and 10 TDs) and Nate Burleson (1,006 yards and nine scores) were drafted in the mid and mostly late rounds. Stokley may not have been drafted in many leagues. 

Speaking of WRs, I have to mention that Torry Holt (1,372 receiving yards) became the first WR in history to top the 1,300 yard mark in five straight seasons.

2004 NFL Playoff Picks

AFC Wild Card:

Chargers over Jets – The Jets’ are inept in the red zone, and the Chargers have enough weapons to overcome the Jets’ solid defense. The Chargers’ run defense will also be able to contain Curtis Martin. Take the Chargers at home.

Colts over Broncos – The Broncos’ best bet is to pound the ball on the ground and keep it away from Manning and company. But, the Broncos’ offense is not consistent enough to outscore the Colts. I also think that Mike Shanahan’s merry-go-round of RBs is not as effective, as if he picked one guy and stuck with him.

NFC Wild Card:

Seahawks over Rams – The Rams beat the Seahawks twice, helped by Seattle blowing a 17-point fourth quarter lead at home in one of those games. Seattle has three advantages in this game that will sway the game their way in my opinion. They have Shaun Alexander, Mike Martz is not their coach and they have homefield, which should matter this time. I think Mike Holmgren is smart enough to pound Shaun Alexander like a bowling ball against the weak Rams’ run defense.

Packers over Vikings – The Packers have beaten the Vikes in two games by a total of six points. The Vikes are dangerous on offense, despite their trying their best to not make the playoffs with their erratic and uninspired play. But, I think the Pack’s offense is more balanced, and I don’t think you can win a playoff game with a weak running game. Mike Tice is a bad decision-maker, and he’s also hurt the Vikes with his I guess I’ll start a different guy at RB as often as possible routine. It should be a high-scoring affair, because both defenses stink.

AFC Divisional:

Steelers over Chargers – I have been doubting the Steelers all season, but their 15-1 record tells me I must shut up. The Steelers are extremely physical on both sides of the ball and help rookie Ben Roethlisberger succeed with a strong running game and minimal passing attempts (23 a game). You also have to like the Steelers at home in the cold against a California team, although the Chargers did beat the Browns 21-0 in the snow in December. But, the Browns are horrible.

Colts over Patriots – I think the Pats’ defense is too banged up to stop the Colts. Their top corner, Ty Law (foot) has only played seven games this season and even if he can play in the postseason which I think he will; the real question is how effective would he be. Wideout Troy Brown has become the team’s nickel back and to his credit has played well. DT Richard Seymour is also battling a knee injury.

NFC Divisional:

Falcons over Packers – The Packers’ defense is very unimpressive, which doesn’t bode well against Michael Vick. I know the Pack beat Minnesota in Minnesota in week 16, but Brett Favre has traditionally struggled in domes and will again.

Eagles over Seahawks – I think Philly will be sluggish after resting their regulars the last two weeks, but Seattle’s defense will be porous enough for them to survive.

AFC Conference Championship:

Steelers over Colts – The Colts will not advance to the Super Bowl until they legitimately upgrade their defense. The Steelers will run all over them and stop Manning and company enough to win this game.

NFC Conference Championship:

Eagles over Falcons – The Eagles are not the same team on offense without Terrell Owens, but this is where the Falcons’ one-dimensional running attack catches up with them. The Eagles have been here before, and it will show as they finally make it to the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl:

Steelers over Eagles – The Steelers manhandled the Eagles 27-3 in early November and will do it again.

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