The This and That of Fantasy Football

Week 15

Decisions. Decisions. If you’ve played fantasy football for many years, you have probably made the wrong lineup choices in a playoff game that cost you a victory. I have some difficult decisions as most of you probably do. I have Tiki Barber, Domanick Davis and Onterrio Smith, and I need to start two. Of course, Domanick Davis is going to start. He’s been hot like fire the last six weeks. He’s scored at least once in his last six games. He had two TDs in two of those games. Last week, Davis had 128 yards rushing, a TD and 73 yards receiving. Many of us so-called experts are calling for Barber to be benched this week against a Steelers’ defense that allows a league-low 79.7 rushing yards per game. Not so fast. I say it depends who your other options are. Don’t forget Barber has 1,743 combined yards and 11 TDs, so don’t dismiss him so quickly. In the four games Eli Manning has started, the only time Tiki Barber has scored a TD is last week when Kurt Warner replaced Eli and moved the offense with the game out of reach. Could Manning get pulled? Sure, but that’s not the main reason I’m going to start Tiki. He is capable of posting decent receiving yardage or breaking a long one. And, I also think Eli Manning is bound to play better after going 4-for-18 for 27 yards and two picks, even though he’s playing the Steelers. Tiki has carried my team all year, and I think I’d rather go down fighting if need be with him, than crying if not playing him somehow costs me the game. The main factor for me though in starting Barber is that I don’t think Onterrio Smith is a worthy replacement. Smith has four TDs and has only once had 20 carries in a game. He averages 13 carries a game, and I can’t see sitting Tiki for that. Tiki faced the Ravens last week, another tough defense, and had 61 combined yards and a TD. I’m going to ride with Tiki. It’d be different if instead of Smith, I had something like Reuben Droughns playing KC.

I have another playoff game, where I’m deciding between fresh off the waiver wire Billy Volek and Drew Brees. This week there’s no waiting until game-time to see who’s starting for the Titans. Steve McNair will miss the final three weeks and will undergo surgery for his bruised sternum. Volek has played very well this season throwing for 13 TDs and seven picks. McNair has missed five full games and most of another one. In Volek’s last three starts, he has 1,029 passing yards and nine TDs. He also has developed a monster rapport with Drew Bennett. In Bennett’s last two games, he has 357 receiving yards (233 last week) and six TDs. I also like Volek’s matchup against the Raiders’ 28^th ranked defense. Then I’ve got Drew Brees, who has been very consistent with 23 TDs and six INTs. Brees only has one 300-yard game this season, but he does have games with five and four TDs respectively. Brees is also facing a Cleveland defense that has given up 137 points the last three weeks. In this case, I have made a decision to start Volek based on each team’s RBs. 1,000 yard rusher Chris Brown’s troublesome turf toe will keep him out of Sunday’s game, giving Antowain Smith the start. Smith is serviceable (90 and 95 yards his last two starts), but he’s more a straight-ahead plugger. San Diego has of course LaDainian Tomlinson going against a Browns’ defense that has allowed 19 rushing TDs, the most in the NFL. From all of this, I think it’s obvious the Chargers will run more meaning Brees’ stats will suffer a little. I also think the Titans will be in a more competitive game, helping Volek’s stats rise. Let’s hope it works. I hope your hard choices work too, unless you’re playing me.

Tidbits

Mike Martz says Chris Chandler (who threw six picks last week) will start for the second week in a row in place of Marc Bulger, who still has soreness in his sprained throwing shoulder.

Tatum Bell, who replaced fumbling Reuben Droughns last week, and rushed for 123 yards and two scores is questionable with a third-degree shoulder separation. Bell is a game-time decision, which is a shame because they’re playing the defenseless Chiefs. Droughns will likely start, and you can’t take a chance on Bell.

Duce Staley (hamstring) and Plaxico Burress (hamstring) are out. Jerome Bettis, who recorded four 100-yard games in Staley’s place before, should rumble again for yards and a TD against the Giants.

Joe Horn leads the NFL in catches (81) and receiving yards (1,184).

Torry Holt had 151 receiving yards and a TD last week, after 160 and a TD the week before.

Ahman Green hasn’t scored since scoring twice in week eight. I think he’s due. Don’t sit him.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh had two TDs in week 12, 171 receiving yards and a TD in week 13 and 12 catches for 145 yards last week. I know he’s playing the Bills this week, but he did just fine against tough defenses the last two weeks in Baltimore and New England. It’d be very hard to sit him down. Carson Palmer (knee) is questionable. But if he can’t play, last year’s comeback player of the year, Jon Kitna, can get the job done.

I missed you Todd Heap. Last week, Heap’s 76 yards and two TDs led me to a playoff win in one of my leagues.

Don’t dare sit Peyton Manning. I don’t care who he’s playing. Peyton needs two TDs to tie Dan Marino at 48 for the most TDs thrown in a single season.

Marshall Faulk (knee) is expected to start Sunday at Arizona, after he and Steven Jackson (knee) both missed last week. Jackson is questionable, and expects to play. But, that was also the story last week.

Maurice Hicks had 34 carries for 139 yards last week, and is probable with a rib cartilage injury. Don’t expect similar numbers against a Washington defense that is among the tops in the league.

Week 15 Picks

Last week straight-up: 13-3

Season: 125-83

Steelers over Giants – Poor Eli. This one could cause nightmares.

Washington over 49ers – Washington may be a bad team, but their defense is very good and they’ll put a beating on the 49ers.

Panthers over Falcons – The Panthers need this game to continue their playoff march. The Falcons have clinched the division, so they could have a letdown. Plus, I think the Falcons’ lack of a passing game catches up to them.

Texans over Bears – No Brian Urlacher (hamstring), and the Texans have more weapons in Domanick Davis and Andre Johnson.

Bengals over Bills – This is one of my upset picks. The Bengals are playing better, and I don’t think Drew Bledsoe can continue much longer without having a bad game.

Vikings over Lions – It’s tough to take the choke artists, but I think they win this game with more offense. Randy Moss has six TDs in his last five games against the Lions. How the Lions stay close in games I’ll never know.

Chargers over Browns – The Browns have given up 137 points the last three weeks.

Jets over Seahawks – The Jets allow 14.8 points per game, plus they’ll be able to run all they want on Seattle.

Eagles over Cowboys – The Eagles will trash the Cowboys again and clinch homefield.

Broncos over Chiefs – The Chiefs’ lack of defense will catch up with them.

Rams over Cardinals – This one will be close, but I think the Rams will reverse Mike Martz’s philosophy of throwing the ball and pound the ball on the ground to protect Chris Chandler from throwing picks.

Buccaneers over Saints – The Bucs are a more balanced team that can actually play defense. Brian Griese will pick apart the Saints.

Packers over Jaguars – Brett Favre is 30-0 when the temperature is 34 degrees or lower, and the Jaguars aren’t used to the cold.

Titans over Raiders – I’ll take the team that can run the ball a little (Chris Brown is out) and pass the ball over the team that can pass but not run at all.

Colts over Ravens – Don’t believe the hype. I’ll take Peyton and crew over the Colts’ defense.

Patriots over Dolphins – Pleassse. The Pats will take the error-prone A.J. Feeley to school. Bet this isn’t the Monday night matchup the league though they were getting.

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