Swing for the Fences

Not Looking Ahead to the Second Half

Of course, anybody can tell you the guys who hit and pitched like crazy are going to slow down. Bret Boone is not going to hit 40 home runs or drive in 150. Barry Bonds is not going to hit 71 bombs, Tim Wakefield won’t lead the league in ERA and Luis Gonzalez is not going to push Bonds toward McGwire and Sosa numbers (or is he? Damn Luis!). It is finding the other guys who are going to let you down that is the hard part.

With that, a list of guys to keep an eye on, and perhaps, a short leash as well.

Kevin Brown (8-4 / 2.95 ERA) continues to pile up the great numbers… and the injuries. Of course, what else do you expect from a 36-year-old power pitcher? Brown is on the shelf with his latest ailment at least until September. If you can coast that long without a pitcher as valuable as Brown, you don’t need these fantasy tips. Most likely, though, Brown has killed your staff this season. If you can get anything of value for Brown at this point in the season, you should take it.

A.J. Burnett (7-5 / 3.13 ERA) has seen his earned run average climb almost a run in his last four starts. While still pitching well on occasion, Burnett will not be a consistent force on your fantasy staff. I would expect Burnett to finish the year with double-digit wins and an ERA over four, not terrible numbers but considering where he was at a month ago, it may not be good enough to hold a spot on your staff.

Omar Daal (10-2 / 4.53 ERA) has seemingly been on the verge of implosion all season. And yet just like his team, Daal has continued to marvel the world of baseball. But the end of the run can’t be far now, and you probably don’t want to harbor the pitcher when things sour. Even when he won 16 in 1999, Daal’s ERA was half a run higher in the second half of the season than the first. Keep an eye on the Phillies. If they start to slip, Daal will be right in the middle of collapse.

Carlos Delgado (.251 AVG / 24 HR / 59 RBI) has slumped to just a .222 average since the All-Star break with no home runs. It does not appear Delgado is going to get the average up this year and he may be hard-pressed to reach 40 home runs. While many first baseman’s numbers have slipped this year, there could be hot alternatives (Andreas Galarraga, Derrek Lee) available in your league that could unseat a struggling Delgado until he gets hot.

Benji Gil (.347 AVG / 8 HR / 30 RBI) has made a push in the last week or so for more playing time, and possibly a starting role. However, if Gil cracks the lineup for the Angels or is traded to a team in need of a shortstop, don’t expect the power and average to hold up. Gil hit .239 last year, and granted it was his first in the big leagues, but the rigors of playing every day will drag down his hot bat. You can take a chance on Gil, just don’t bank on it.

Ken Griffey (.242 AVG / 7 HR / 19 RBI) had a spurt last week that made fantasy owners giddy about 'The Kid' coming around and helping their teams. Unfortunately, Griffey is not near top form and won't be this year. If someone is willing to bite on Griffey, and you are not in a keeper league, make the deal.

Billy Koch (1-3 / 4.95 ERA / 3 BS) has never really appeared comfortable on the mound this season. Koch was accused earlier in the year of messing around with too many pitches, but as of late, is getting beat off his fastball. With relief appearances becoming scarce in some leagues as staffs have built up a lot of innings, it might be a good idea to let Koch sit. The Blue Jays don’t figure to contend down the stretch, which means Koch’s save chances will not come regularly.

Joe Mays (11-7 / 3.37 ERA) is 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA in the second half so far. Mays is fast approaching his career-high in innings pitched. Often with young pitchers, there is a significant dropoff in their performance as they rack up the innings for the first time in their careers. The Twins will not go away in the race for the A.L. Central, and Mays will contribute if they are to make the postseason for the first time since 1991. Still, his performance will be far from what it was in the season’s first half.

Rick Reed (8-5 / 3.45 ERA) has had two disastrous outings in his last four starts. No pitcher in baseball came out of the gates this year hotter than Reed. But while Reed is capable of stretches where he really pitches well, he also appears to be tiring. He has never made more than 31 starts in one season and is on pace for 32. Plus, the Mets’ offense is showing no signs of coming to life to support its pitchers.

Shane Reynolds (8-9 / 5.42 ERA) appeared for a while to be regaining his late 90s form, posting some very good outings in May and June. But Reynolds has lost four straight decisions and looks very hittable, giving up 24 hits in just over nine innings his last two starts. Reynolds is a key to the Astros’ Central Division title hopes, so they will stick with him. Just don’t expect to see the Reynolds of old for too long.

Todd Walker (.303 AVG / 13 HR / 44 RBI) was a hyped commodity this spring. A second sacker with a little pop getting a shot in hitter heaven Coors Field. Now that dream is over, and with it, so is Walker’s stay among the elite. In Cincinnati, Walker will still start but gone is the home field hitter’s advantage. Walker will struggle to reach 20 home runs now.

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