Going Deep

MLB Team Previews: Edition 7

2003 Finish: 87-75, 2nd in NL Central

Key Additions: RP Brandon Backe, SP Roger Clemens, SP Brandon Duckworth, OF Orlando Palmeiro, SP Andy Pettitte, RP Dave Veres

Key Subtractions: 3B Geoff Blum, OF Orlando Merced, SP Ron Villone, RP Billy Wagner, RP Rick White

The Yankees lost not one, but two battles with the South this winter, as they watched starters Clemens and Pettitte bolt for the Lone Star State. Their impact can’t be underestimated, as they join staff stalwarts Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt to create one of baseball’s best and deepest rotations. The lineup is full of question marks, from Lance Berkman’s subpar 2003 to Jeff Bagwell’s age, to whether or not Morgan Ensberg will continue his emergence as an offensive star into this season. In most divisions, the Astros would be favored, but contending with the Cubs will make a wild-card berth a solid option for Houston. They’ll contend for one, but a division title may be out of reach, despite the star power.

STRENGTHS: The Astros’ starting rotation was terrific before the arrival of Clemens and Pettitte. Now, it’s positively scary. Oswalt is the opening day starter, followed by Pettitte, Clemens and Miller, with Tim Redding bringing up the rear. Throwing Pettitte in the No. 2 spot creates a right-left-right combo, any manager’s dream. With Wagner in Philadelphia, Octavio Dotel takes over as closer. He has filthy stuff, and has been preparing for the role for two seasons. There shouldn’t be much dropoff, though filling his vacated spot in the ‘pen becomes a concern.

WEAKNESSES: “Bags” is now 35, and though his production remained consistent in 2003, he isn’t going to hit .300 anymore. Berkman’s power numbers dipped, though he had a strong second half and will be out to prove his first two seasons weren’t flukes. OF Craig Biggio’s offensive contributions are waning, and the arrival of Palmeiro could mean more bench time for Biggio. With Clemens and Pettitte on board, starters Carlos Hernandez (who missed 2003 due to injury), Jeriome Robertson and Kirk Saarloos with either be jettisoned to Triple-A, or banished to the bullpen. That can’t be good for their development; they’ve all proven their worth as major-league starters.

WHO TO WATCH: Ensberg swatted 25 homers in fewer than 400 at-bats in ’03, and with Blum out the door, the job is all his. Ensberg will have plenty of opportunity to drive in runs with “The Killer Bs” hitting in front of him, though he’ll have to avoid the kind of slump he suffered through last season, when he had just 16 RBI after the All-Star break. Knowing he’ll have a full-time position should help his confidence greatly, and a .291 average as a sophomore can’t be ignore. Consider him in the second tier of fantasy third basemen, far behind A-Rod, but catching up to Rolen, Glaus and Aramis Ramirez.

THEY COULD WIN IF…: Clemens can prove his return to the bigs was a good one, and Pettitte uses his spot in the rotation to take advantage of baffled hitters. Offense is a small concern; the bullpen, a moderate one. If healthy, the Astros should give the Cubs a run atop the Central, while feasting on weaker divisional opponents. Without a doubt, this year’s NL Central is a two-team race.

PROGNOSIS: 90 wins isn’t out of the question, which would have left them just one game out of the wild-card last season. With Florida and Atlanta worse off, and with a weaker West in 2004, Houston should be able to snag this year’s NL fourth and final playoff berth.