Fantasy Baseball : Looking ahead to the Second Half : Swing for the Fences

If you are one of the many people who believes the baseball season is a tale of two halves (I�m talking to you, Johnny Damon), then we are on the precipice of opening day. While the big leaguers take a couple days to celebrate the game in Seattle, let�s take this time to celebrate a re-birth for many of the huge disappointments in the first half of the season. There is clear history behind many of the guys who are set to explode in the second half of the season. Others are just hunches. And that is the way of fantasy baseball.

Edgardo Alfonzo (.237 AVG / 9 HR / 25 RBI) was a legitimate candidate for National League MVP honors last season. This year, Alfonzo has been a legitimate bust for fantasy owners. Alfonzo is back from the disabled list, and although off to a slow start, will likely comeback with a vengence before the season is out. His value is as low as it will get, so now is the time to make a move to acquire the powerful second sacker.

James Baldwin (5-5 / 4.70 ERA) broke down in the second half last year. In 1999, though, Baldwin exploded onto the fantasy radar with an 8-4 mark and ERA under 3.60. Baldwin has pitched well at times this season and could be due for a monster second half, especially if the White Sox are to make any kind of run at a playoff spot. Keep an eye on Baldwin, probably a free agent in most leagues.

Adrian Beltre (.246 AVG / 6 HR / 23 RBI) put up a second half last season that jumped him to the top of many offseason fantasy wishlists. Beltre hit 80 points higher than in the first half of the season and blasted 12 home runs. However, his devastating stomach problems in spring training really set back Beltre�s progress. Look for Beltre, just now rounding into form, to have a big second half.

Dave Burba (8-6 / 6.45 ERA) posted an 8-2 mark with a 3.13 ERA during the second half of last season. While generally it is a good idea to avoid 35 year-old pitchers with fastballs around 85 mph and ERAs in the middle sixes, Burba could blow up again. Plus the potent Tribe lineup is due to give even the worst pitchers a few wins. Take a flier on Burba if your staff is thin.

Johnny Damon (.231 AVG / .295 OBP / 50 RS / 14 SB) may be headed out of Oakland soon, and fantasy owners hope that could be the spark to get Damon on his usual second half tear. Damon has batted 50 points higher in second halves during his career. If he lands in Chicago with the Cubs, he�ll bat leadoff in front of a strong Cubs lineup and have the opportunity to score some runs. Of course he was batting leadoff in front of the likes of Jason Giambi and Miguel Tejada but couldn�t get on base to be driven in. Still Damon will take off as usual and may be available in your league for little.

Tom Glavine (6-5 / 4.85 ERA) has seen his numbers slip farther and farther each year toward the norm in the majors. But Glavine is still a premier pitcher and his numbers have been better each of the last three seasons in the second halves. Last season, Glavine posted 12 wins after the break. Glavine�s fantasy owners will need him to do much the same to salvage their seasons.

Livan Hernandez (6-11 / 6.20 ERA) is on pace to eclipse the 20-loss mark for the first time since Jerry Koosman in 1977. Livan and the Giants are looking to last year�s second half instead, when he posted a 10-4 mark with an ERA around 3.00. The momentum has definitely swung in Hernandez�s favor, as he has pitched at least seven innings in seven of his last eight starts.

Derrek Lee (.249 AVG / 11 HR / 38 RBI) was supposedly on the verge of great things after last season�s 28 home runs and .281 average. Lee has regressed, though, and perhaps is not much more than a .250 hitter. But Lee has looked better of late, raising his average 35 points since June 16. Lee is a young hitter and will have streaks, but he could provide a nice bat in the second half of the year.

Edgar Renteria (.228 AVG / 5 HR / 27 RBI) has completely fallen off the map as far as fantasy contributions go. Renteria is a career .280 hitter who is laboring this season. He looks uninterested on the field and his numbers show it. Even of more concern, Renteria has usually been much worse in the second half of the season rather than the first half. Still, expect Renteria to improve somewhat, and if he gets hot, he has enough talent to put up good numbers for a shortstop.

Tim Salmon (.206 AVG / 9 HR / 26 RBI) has been an anchor in the middle of the Angels lineup � dragging them toward the bottom of the league in offensive statistics. But last year, Salmon hit 60 points higher in the second half. He has always hit for power, and the rest of the Angels bats have to come alive too at some point. If he gets healthy, he will make a nice addition to your roster as a third or fourth outfielder.

Barry Zito (5-6 / 4.75 ERA) only pitched in the second half last season but his turnaround this year is based more on a hunch than history. Oakland has won Zito�s last five starts, even though Zito only received decisions in two of those games. Zito is one of the game�s finest young pitchers, and his stuff is too good to continually get wasted in no-decisions. Look for Oakland to come on in the second half and for Zito to be a big part of that.

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