Tales From Beyond

Common Sense Spoken Here

Q - Are third-year wide receivers likely to breakout?

A – Yes. No. Depends on how you define breaking out. And if you can define breaking out. Since many people will have different definitions of breaking out, we will get different answers. It is only common sense that most players will take a leap forward in year two, three, or four because if they don’t it is back to working the door at the Tic-Toc Club. However, we are looking in the wrong direction. It doesn’t matter which year a wide receiver will breakout, it only matters if we can pinpoint the precise player that will breakout. That is the problem. When someone devises a system that can accurately tell us which wide receivers will bust loose, then we have something. If we are just going to say that some of these players will break out, but have no way of telling which ones, we have nothing.

Q – Is it a good idea to play a WR-QB combo from the same team?

A – My mother will take this question. Mom. “Don’t put your eggs all in one basket.” Thanks, Mom. Now I’m no chicken farmer and the only eggs I have handled come in a convenient little carton but it makes sense that if you don’t want to take a risk, you don’t play the same combo from the same team. Can it work? Sure. And I could ride an elephant down the Golden State Freeway without injury, but it ain’t sensible. This type of combo gives a team a roller coaster effect. The roller coaster effect is wonderful on the up weeks but the plunge can be quite painful. And it isn’t predictable, which means that at the worst times you can go belly-up. It is much better to get a QB1 and WR1 from different teams as the possibility of painful weeks diminishes with players on opposite squads. My best source on this comes from Anita Bryant who said that players from the same team should never commingle.

Q – What is up with drafting players with weak schedules at the end of the year?

A - I’ve been hearing this a lot lately. Take the schedule and figure out the players with the best schedules that end the season. The theory is that when the playoffs arrive you have all your good players in good matchups. Great. Hey Lumpy, that means the tougher part of their schedule is during the regular season. Now, I am going to shock each reader by saying this, but the regular season is more important than the playoffs. Let’s take a second to compose ourselves. Ok. If you don’t do well in the regular season, then you watch the competition dance during the playoffs while you scrape vomit off your shoes. That is not fun. What makes better sense is taking players with easier schedules early on. This way the player’s value is exaggerated. Then you can trade them for the players with deflated values because they are playing the tough part of the schedule early. Makes sense to me.

Q – Are Mock Drafts a good learning tool?

A – Yes, if you have never played the game before it is a good idea to try and get your feet wet. Plus, they keep psychopaths, like myself, tied to the computer instead of walking the streets in search of a fantasy fix. But…if you feel that such drafts are good study tools, well I have some oceanfront property in Kansas to sell. Mock drafts are not controlled environments. Anyone from Grandma Nelson to George W. Bush could be involved. Mopes, with little idea of how to play, draft Michael Vick in the fifth round, and unless pine time or interceptions are a category, that is not good. Play, get the monkey off your back, but don’t take the results seriously. Unless, of course, you are Grandma Nelson.

Q – Should an owner pay attention to bye weeks?

A – I used to pay attention to bye weeks, now I’m not sure I should care. It is more important to take the best players than try and set it up so you have one player a week missing a game. Leave the schedule at home and pick good players, not good players that fit time zones. Next season this may all change, as the NFL will have an even amount of teams and it is likely that four teams at a time will be on bye, not this insanity where one team doesn’t start the season until Week 2.

Q – How can I dominate my league?

A – You can’t. Sorry. There is too much luck involved for a team to dominate unless, of course, you are in the league with George W. Bush.

Q – I should never draft a tight end before the third round, should I?

A – That has been the talk for years. Even during the heydays of Ben Coates and Shannon Sharpe, drafting a TE before the fourth round was pushing it. Why would you wait until after the 24th player, or later, is taken to draft a top-10 player, like Tony Gonzalez?

A.) You feel it is a time-honored tradition that can’t be broken without a secret handshake.

B.) You have a serious allergic reaction to husky men with great athletic ability?

C.) There is a gnawing feeling, in the pit of your stomach, that Jerome Bettis is this year’s sleeper.

Unless you seriously feel that the Chiefs are going to ignore the most valuable player on their team, Gonzalez is prime to be drafted somewhere in the mid-to-late second round. If you are at that point in the draft, you can let the other positions rest, grab Gonzalez, and still get the same player in the third round that was available at the end of the second. Wait until the third round and he will be gone.

Q – Does all the best inside info come from people close to the game?

A – No. Coaches, GMs, owners, and players all have their own agenda and, unless it meshes with what a fantasy football jockey needs, what they say may be worthless. This is particularly important when evaluating young talent, as every rookie is wonderful according to their bosses. That type of mojo can be seductive to a fantasy owner with a bent to young boys. All they have to hear is that so and so is having a great camp and -- BAM – they are taking a rookie in the upper reaches of the first round. Seeing is definitely believing and the more you learn to watch first, and listen second, the easier it becomes to figure out what will happen. As far as injuries are concerned it all comes down to whether they are practicing or not. That is the key, not what comes out of anyone’s mouth. Except for Brett Favre, of course.

Q – Can I pooch my draft and still win?

A – Yes, but only if mom and dad let you. If you completely dunce the draft so that you are bleeding from every orifice, and play in a competitive league, there is little chance of winning. The one hope for a bad draft, in a tough league, is scheduling luck. You can improve a team through waivers and trades but if the other owners know what they are doing it will be tough without luck to move forward.

Q – Do bad professional teams yield only bad fantasy players?

A – No, not at all. While it may be easier for a good team to propagate a slew of good players, bad teams can produce a few on their own. No, not the St. Louis Rams, we are talking the Arizona Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals. We are talking the most odorous, skank-riddled, groups of uncoordinated humanity ever assembled. Each produced a reasonable player last season. The best part is that their players are generally underrated and can be cheaper than like players on better teams.

Q – Will using VBD secure a winning season?

A – Sure, if you are the only owner in the league. All VBD does is coordinate your projections into a cheatsheet giving equal weight to all positions. That way an owner can tick off the players taken and always be looking at the best player available. Supposedly. See, if your projections were the rantings of a tequila-soaked madman – hey, stop pointing – then VBD is just going to spit that right back in your face. It is a tool, like a blender, not the decoding of a fantasy football Rosetta stone.

That’s enough for this session of common sense as it’s 4-for-1 at Barfly and I’m falling behind.

Mark Bond can be found, most days, listening to Stevie Ray Vaughn, eating hot sausage sandwiches topped with BBQ chips, chili, and coleslaw, slapping back Cuervo shooters, and rambling on about those warm evenings spent with Janet Reno. He is not related to James Bond but has the same air of sophistication of Sean Connery. Mark is currently annoying his workmates at Jackpot Sports<\/A>, home of the first daily fantasy baseball game, the Reggie Jackson Fantasy Baseball Challenge, plus weekly and seasonal Fantasy Football games.
Irritate him by sending e-mail to: Mark Bond<\/A>