Swing for the Fences

Slumping through May: NL

Edgardo Alfonzo (.261 AVG / 8 HR / 19 RBI) got off to one of the worst starts of any high-priced fantasy pick. His average floundered around .100 for the first few weeks of the season but has risen dramatically since then. Alfonzo appears to have been over-priced a bit based on last season’s explosive performance, but he is one of the best second sackers in the league.

Ryan Dempster (4-6 / 5.45 ERA / 1.65 WHIP) was thought of as the key to the resurgence of the Florida Marlins. Well the Marlins are playing well at times, and doing it with pitching, but Dempster is the worst starter on the staff. His stuff is too good for his earned run average to be above five. Go get him if a GM in your league shies away from him.

Scott Elarton (4-4 / 5.91 ERA / 1.56 WHIP) won 17 games last season on an awful Astros team. Many figured the Astros would improve and Elarton would stand to benefit from that. Of course, Elarton benefited from great run support last season and won despite a high earned run average and walks/hits ratio. Elarton will win some games but the cost on your team ERA and WHIP may be too high.

Steve Finley (.219 AVG / 2 HR / 15 RBI) could be in the same boat with Karros if not for the fact that Finley still looks young out there. His bat may be slowing down some and he may not have the power he flashed the past four seasons, but Finley will get on base and score some runs. He is in a season-long slump, but if he breaks out, could get hot for a month. Watch for Finley floating on the waiver wires in July and snatch him up.

Rafael Furcal (.240 AVG / 3 HR / 17 RBI / 9 SB) was expected to be among the top middle infielders in the majors this season, but the proverbial sophomore slump has risen up and taken a bite. Furcal is one of the primary reasons why the Braves have started slowly, and if on your team, while your squad has slumped as well. The little man can run and he will produce steals for you but is striking out and not drawing any walks. He needs to be more patient in order to really establish himself as a great table setter.

Livan Hernandez (3-7 / 7.06 ERA / 1.66 WHIP) is one of those ballplayers who is notorious for starting slow. Hernandez’s earned run average in April the past four seasons is over five and a half. Last season, Hernandez really came on late and posted 17 wins and an ERA under four. Although some have questioned why his fastball is slow this year, there appears to be no signs of any arm troubles. The Giants are loaded on offense and will contend for the division title, making Hernandez very valuable. Keep him on your bench for now but do not get rid of him.

Todd Hundley (.216 AVG / 4 HR / 18 RBI) is an enigma wrapped in a shroud wrapped in an enigma. Hundley used to either strike out or hit a home run. Now he either strikes out or sits on the bench with a DNP. The Cubs thought they were getting a slugger to protect Sammy Sosa but instead got a leaning post for Don Baylor in the dugout. Hundley may be pressing too much to justify the free-agent deal and his return to his hometown. He is a proven power commodity, though, and should come around a little. The average will stay below .240 though, and the strikeouts will remain high.

Eric Karros (.232 AVG / 5 HR / 24 RBI) is on his way to retirement. He has the look of a tired, aging veteran who makes minimal contributions but is kept around for clubhouse chemistry. Karros is still a decent run producer but will not hit 30 home runs this year and will not hit more than .250. Many first baseman in the league will produce more for your team than Karros.

Todd Ritchie (0-6 / 4.62 ERA / 1.36 WHIP) has been a decent pitcher on a terrible team. Luck and the law of averages would think to benefit Ritchie at some point this season, but he has never been terribly consistent. With Kris Benson out and PNC an apparent hitter’s park, all Pirates pitchers should be last resorts, including closer Mike Williams.

Scott Rolen (.253 AVG / 4 HR / 25 RBI) is no longer a future fantasy stud at third base – he IS the now. Rolen has put up excellent numbers the past four years, and there is no reason to doubt him now. The Phillies are making a great run out of the gates so far in the National League East and have done much of it without production from Bobby Abreau or Rolen. If you are looking for help at third, make a play for Rolen in your league. Frustration could push his value down and make him a nice pick up for the rest of the year. His batting average has come up from .229 in the past two weeks, get him while he is hot.

John Smoltz (0-2 / 8.64 ERA / 2.04 WHIP) may have returned from the Tommy John surgery of last season but he has not really returned yet. Smoltz, despite the high earned run average, has looked pretty good. His velocity and movement has been impressive. It appears Smoltz should be fine once he gets back in rhythm but be weary the arm. Injuries are never out of the picture for aging hurlers.

Fernando Tatis ( .254 AVG / 2 HR / 11 RBI) was on a lot of lists for comeback player this year. Tatis struggled with injuries last season with the Cardinals and figured to get healthy hitting in front of Vladimir Guerrero. However, Tatis appears to have lost all power in his swing and ended up on the disabled list. It does not look like Tatis is ever going to be the same player who hit 34 home runs in 1999.

Ugueth Urbina (0-1 / 5.73 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / 7 for 9 in saves) may yet be saved from Expos’ obscurity but will not be worth the space on your roster. Over the last few outings, he has appeared to have lost some velocity on his fastball and slider. Also, Urbina cannot pitch on consecutive days because of his arm. I would not make a play for Urbina thinking he will end up closing for a contending team.