Swing for the Fences

Slumping through May: AL

The question each owner has to wrestle with early in the season is how long to stay with slumping guys. Each year, impatient owners discard to the waiver wire or trade away gems for little in return. Understanding that superstars will eventually put up numbers isn’t hard to grasp, but watching your team struggle in the overall standings is tough.

There are some guys who may just be due for a bad year, but others who start slow, can really turn it up and put up nice numbers. The following guys have all struggled so far, and the question their owners want answered is will they justify their price:

Tony Batista (.217 AVG / 11 HR / 27 RBI) is headed for Rob Deer land real fast. Batista is a strikeout machine, and if he is not hitting above .260, he is a problem at the plate. Batista will hit for power regardless of his average. Can the Blue Jays afford to have him in the middle of the lineup if all he is doing is hitting home runs and striking out? This situation is worth watching. May be tough to swallow for some owners if he sees the pine in a platoon situation.

Johnny Damon (.202 AVG / 3 HR / 15 RBI / 5 SB) was a huge offseason pickup by the A’s to try and take over in the American League. Fantasy owners were drooling over the thought of Damon on base in front of Giambi and the rest of that lineup. But overlooked was the fact Damon has never had a tremendous on-base percentage. He only walks once every 12 at-bats in his career. Of course, Damon has always started poorly in April and come on later in the season, but he will be hard-pressed to match last year’s numbers. That prognosis is not comforting to owners who spent so much on him this season.

Darin Erstad (.238 AVG / 2 HR / 17 RBI) challenged for the all-time hit record for a while last season before getting hurt in August. This year has been very different. Erstad has had some nagging injuries, and they have really hampered his performance thus far. Erstad is a career .298 hitter and has only hit below .280 once. In 1999, he hit .253 in over 500 at-bats. Could this be another season like that for Erstad? Chances are he’ll rebound but expecting another run like he had for most of last season is unreasonable.

Rick Helling (1-5 / 7.33 ERA / 1.87 WHIP) has completely busted this season. He averaged 16 wins the past three seasons while never posting an ERA under 4.41, so the writing was on the wall. Helling was the premier example in the league of guys with good run support being valuable, but this season, he and the rest of the Rangers’ staff have failed to take advantage of A-Rod and the boys with the bats. Helling could win 10-12 games, but he is also on the verge of a 7-17 season too. Stay far away from him.

Orlando Hernandez (0-4 / 5.11 ERA / 1.57 WHIP) has combined with his brother, Livan, for a family collapse so far this season. ‘El Duque’ was 29-13 his first two seasons but has gone 12-17 since. It is hard to tell if Hernandez will rebound this season consistently. Last season he was not reliable and should not be counted on unless you are desperate for pitching. Being in the Yankees rotation will assure him some wins and some good outings, but prepare for the roller coaster if you take a chance on him.

Roberto Hernandez (0-2 / 7.23 ERA / 1.86 WHIP) has blown three saves for the team that brought him to add stability to the bullpen. Hernandez, if you remember, was this bad early last season as well, and rebounded with 27 saves and ERA close to two after May. If someone has cut him loose, pick him up and keep him on the pine. He’ll be there when you look to him in June.

Derek Lowe (2-5 / 5.40 ERA / 1.63 WHIP) has already lost his closer’s job twice this season. Lowe has uncharacteristically struggled with the strike zone so far, walking half as many as he did all of last season. Lowe’s stuff is too good to stay down all season long. However, knowing Jimy Williams, I would not expect him to regain the full-time closer’s role any time soon. Williams is very happy with platoons and will go with Rolando Arrojo, Rod Beck and Tim Wakefield at times for the next few months. Stay away from Lowe as a closer in your league.

Bernie Williams (.221 AVG / 3 HR / 14 RBI) is surprisingly off to a slow start. Few would have expected Williams, a career .303 hitter, to struggle so much. Keep the faith; Bernie is setting himself up for a big second half of the season. Last year, he hit .386 in June, so unloading him would be foolish.

Barry Zito (3-3 / 5.89 ERA / 1.58 WHIP) has made plenty of owners look like fools. This is a guy who pitched superbly in the second half last year for the A’s. He did not command a high price in a lot of leagues, as many owners either forgot about him or never knew too much about him to begin with. So those who drafted him in the middle rounds of their draft were thinking steal. Not so fast my friends. Zito has been up and down, though mostly down with four straight awful outings. Although the A’s will not continue to sputter, Zito is obviously not going to be the ace many of owners thought. I would push Zito to the bench for the time being until he proves he is more than just an average pitcher.