Fantasy Baseball : Spring Stats Mean Little : Swing for the Fences

As of March 18, Alex Rodriguez is the leading hitter this spring with a .464 average. No surprise there, A-Rod is capable of contending for the batting title this season. Also in the top five, Tony Graffanino is pacing the White Sox with a .436 average. Russ Branyan hit for some power last season in his stint with the Indians. He is tearing the cover off the ball with six home runs so far in 47 at bats this spring. But John Mabry, who has hit more than 10 home runs once in his seven-year career, has also blasted seven so far this spring for the Cardinals. Basically, these events of the spring combine to tell us one thing. It is called exhibition baseball for a reason � the stats don't count.

I remember following the Braves spring last season firsthand down at Disney World. There was a guy in camp named Steve Sisco. Sisco is a career minor leaguer who played his tail off for last spring and hit the ball really well. I thought the guy might have a shot at making the team as a utility infielder and pinch-hitter specialist. Sisco made some sporadic appearances with the Braves last season but barely caused a ripple. Now Sisco may be the extreme case but as more and more fantasy general managers look for the sleeper, many will look to guys who get hot in the spring to carry the momentum over into the start of the season. And for the most part, it rarely translates.

It does not mean spring statistics are completely worthless. If that was the case, many a fantasy geek would cry uncontrollably at the thought of wasting time scouring box scores from split squads. The key though is to know what you are looking for when checking out the box scores. You can gain the advantage on other owners by scouting what guys coming back from injuries are looking like early in the spring. Reports on the movement, top speed and location of Billy Wagner's pitches this spring give fantasy owners encouragement that Wagner is ready to return to his 1999 form. Conversely, Rick Ankiel's struggles in his latest game (8 bases on balls in a little over an inning) should immediately raise the red flag. Ankiel was very wild and looks to be in for some serious control issues throughout the season.

But putting too much on the news from spring training can hurt as well. Juan Gonzalez has blasted four home runs and is hitting over .300 but that does not mean Juan Gone will stay healthy. It means what has always been known about Juan is still true... he can hit the cover off the ball when healthy. Who can predict how many games are in store for the Indians slugger.

Another thing to keep an eye out for in spring is guys looking to bounce back after down seasons. Troy O'Leary is hitting .400 with four home runs and 10 RBI this spring. O'Leary struggled last year and is trying to stake a claim for the third outfield spot or some DH work with the Red Sox. While his numbers don't relay how igh Jimy Williams is on O'Leary, they do show O'Leary is working toward improving his game. A couple of second baseman battling to return to productivity are putting together good springs as well. It may not be a stretch to pick up Carlos Febles or Marlon Anderson as insurance policies for your front line starter.

It is always important to monitor the progress of young studs in the spring. Guys who are highly touted and have monster seasons can make a statement for not only a spot on the opening day roster, but also a spot in the starting lineup. Rafael Furcal went from Single A ball to the bigs in one spring because he made an impression on Bobby Cox. Cox knew what the kid brought to the team, something they were lacking. Now with one season under his belt, Furcal is one of the top shortstops in the game who can swipe 60 bases each season. He probably could have been had as a free agent in most leagues at the beginning of the season last year, and in keeper leagues was a complete steal, pun intended. This year's candidates, guys like Ben Sheets in Milwaukee and Corey Patterson in Chicago, will get the chance to show what they can do. If they perform lights out in spring, it may signal a promising start to their major league careers.

Lastly, position battles can be decided in the spring and that should determine how you build your team. The Cardinals third base job is open, with many expecting Craig Paquette to edge out Placido Polanco. Polanco is hitting .429 with nine RBI. Paquette is not doing badly either, though, at .290 with six RBI. Tony LaRussa may decide to platoon the two throughout the season but at least keep an eye on the rest of the spring to find out if one really gets hot and wins the job to start the season.

A good rule of thumb is to enjoy the spring for what it is. Hot dogs covered in chili, steaming hot pretzels, ice cold beer and keeping score with an extra long score sheet. Spring is not for statistic freaks. Just don't tell that to the fantasy geek in your league..