IntroductionWhen making any type of ranking list, you inevitably have to leave some qualified candidates off your list. As a few of you have noticed, Derek Lowe isn’t even in the RotoRank list of top 25 starting pitchers published in the Cheat Sheet Section of Addict Fantasy Sports.
When you look at my projections for the following pitchers, keep in mind that a slight adjustment in any one category can catapult a player up or down the rankings. Most publications focus on the top 100 players, but usually there are top quality players available through pick 144 of a twelve team mixed league draft and its only very minor differences that keep certain players from cracking the top 100. I classify players between picks 100 and 144 as being on the bubble.
The Starters
Odalis Perez<\/A> - Perez was one of the primary reasons why the Dodgers were able to stay in the NL West pennant race last year. He really showed why Peter Gammons kept touting his ability over the last few years. Since 2002 was his first outstanding year, you can’t necessarily assume he will improve or repeat that performance. He will likely move into the number 2 slot of the Rotation making it harder for him to get wins. By taking a conservative approach and slightly lowering his 2002 numbers (which will be much harder to duplicate in 2003), he just misses the Top 100 players.
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 79 | 222.3 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 155 | 2.996 | 0.990 |
| 2003 | 109 | 200 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 150 | 3.330 | 1.100 |
Randy Wolf<\/A> - Wolf had his third consecutive 10+ win season in 2002. His ERA has been getting better in each of the last three years. With the Phillies acquiring Millwood, it may have kept Wolf safe from the pressure of becoming a number 1 starter. Look for him to continue to improve, and quite possibly bust out in the Wins category, especially if the new Philadelphia offense lives up to its potential. Of the pitchers on this list, I think Wolf has the biggest potential upside beyond my predictions in 2003.
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 117 | 210.0 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 172 | 3.204 | 1.116 |
| 2003 | 110 | 210.0 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 172 | 3.429 | 1.176 |
Derek Lowe<\/A> - In Derek’s first chance to start since 1998, he put up Cy Young caliber numbers. Lowe really had a phenomenal season in 2002, but no one was expecting that kind of performance from him. This year he is slotted as the number 2 pitcher and Boston, and everyone expects an encore performance. He had a slight setback this off-season needing surgery to remove a cancerous growth from his nose, and I’d be a little reserved about predicting another 200+ innings from this former bullpen standout. I think the added expectations and pressure will affect him, so I lowered his win total and made his ERA and WHIP a little more realistic for a starter in the AL.
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 42 | 219.6 | 21 | 8 | 0 | 127 | 2.581 | 0.974 |
| 2003 | 115 | 190.0 | 15 | 8 | 0 | 127 | 3.065 | 1.157 |
Jason Schmidt<\/A> - In his first full season as a member of the San Francisco Giants, Jason realized the potential the Pittsburgh Pirates had always hoped he’d achieve. There is no reason to think his numbers will improve over 2002 though, since he will likely become the Ace of the Giants staff after the departure of Russ Ortiz. I’m playing it safe and keeping his 2003 projected numbers similar to that of his final 2002 statistics.
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 107 | 185.3 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 196 | 3.448 | 1.192 |
| 2003 | 124 | 175 | 13 | 8 | 0 | 175 | 3.651 | 1.400 |
Rodrigo Lopez<\/A> – This Baltimore pitcher could possibly do better than his 2002 numbers this year or more likely he could do a whole lot worse in 2003. When in doubt, I always assume that at best a player may possibly repeat his previous year’s performance. As you can see, I slightly altered his ERA, and he dropped 7 spots in the rankings. Just imagine how far he’d slip if I made his projected 2003 record to be 12 Wins and 12 Losses (which is not far out of the realm of possibility).
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 126 | 196.6 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 136 | 3.570 | 1.190 |
| 2003 | 133 | 196.6 | 15 | 9 | 0 | 136 | 3.890 | 1.190 |
Vincente Padilla<\/A> - Going into 2002, Padilla was on everybody’s sleeper list. He was the key player that Arizona had to give up to get Curt Schilling. In his first full season as a starter, Padilla put up very good numbers without getting much run support. With the addition of Jim Thome, David Bell, and Marlon Byrd his support should improve; however, I’m always leery to add wins to any young pitcher (even if his team improved). I’m going to play it safe and keep his numbers constant for 2003.
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 132 | 206.0 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 128 | 3.277 | 1.218 |
| 2003 | 134 | 206.0 | 14 | 11 | 0 | 128 | 3.277 | 1.218 |
Paul Byrd<\/A> – Does the move of Paul Byrd from one of the worst teams in baseball to one of the best MLB teams make him an instant 20 game winner? I wouldn’t bet on it! I’m actually thinking he will get less wins this year, since Bobby Cox manages his pitching a little differently than the KC Royals could afford to do. The shift of leagues may hurt him as well…
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 120 | 228.3 | 17 | 11 | 0 | 129 | 3.902 | 1.147 |
| 2003 | 138 | 228.0 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 129 | 3.902 | 1.147 |
The Closers
Eddie Guardado<\/A> – Although Every Day Eddie isn’t truly a bubble player based upon my original definition, he does fit the profile because his 2002 season was his first dominant fantasy performance. I don’t think he will hold up as well this year, especially with the raised expectations that will be on the Twins ball club. Minnesota seems to burn out their closers, so expect Guardado to slip a little and lose some saves to his talented core of setup men.
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 45 | 67.6 | 1 | 3 | 45 | 70 | 2.926 | 1.049 |
| 2003 | 56 | 56 | 1 | 3 | 37 | 70 | 3.536 | 1.268 |
Scott Stewart<\/A> – Stewart should be the closer right from the beginning of the season this year in Montreal, as long as he doesn’t suffer any setbacks from his off-season surgery. As you can see, all I did was modify his Saves total from 17 to 28, and he jumped to the 98th rated player in the RotoRank system based on my 2003 forecasts. I’ve found it very interesting how just a slight adjustment to one category really changes the value of some players, especially in the Saves and Stolen Bases categories. If you haven’t downloaded my free demo of RotoRank yet, I urge you to give it a try. Just modify one player’s 2002 final statistics up or down and see how his rankings change. I think it gives an excellent insight into the importance of breaking players into talent groups.
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 178 | 64 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 67 | 3.234 | 1.109 |
| 2003 | 98 | 64 | 4 | 2 | 28 | 67 | 3.234 | 1.109 |
Mike Dejean<\/A> – Another interesting case study is Mike Dejean. I did not make any changes to his stats within the RotoRank database, but he still gained 15 spots in the 2003 rankings as compared to his final 2002 value. Basically his 2003 rankings improved because I didn’t project Smoltz and Gagne to completely outclass everyone else again. By lowering the bar a little on the top closers, all of the remaining closers gained a little ground. Dejean makes the perfect case for realizing that all projections are relative to one another. Placing a value on a player without comparing him to all other possible candidates will likely lead to you selecting him too early in a standard draft or over-paying for his services in a salary/auction based league.
| Year | Rank | IP | Wins | Losses | Saves | K | ERA | WHIP |
| 2002 | 142 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 65 | 3.120 | 1.400 |
| 2003 | 127 | 75 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 65 | 3.120 | 1.400 |
Conclusion
There are many reasons why players will be on the bubble. The bubble is the stepping ground for youngsters to ascend to stardom and legends to fall into obscurity. 2003 should prove to be an interesting season. Feel free to take any one of these pitchers before my 25th rated Starting Pitcher, Roger Clemens<\/A> (who chimes in as the 105th ranked player in my 2003 RotoRank projections); however, don’t be completely surprised when Clemens wins 16 games for the playoff bound Yankees and your player selection has his bubble popped!
