RotoRank Roundtable

Draft Like a Fantasy Baseball Expert

Over the last 13 years I’ve been through over 100 live drafts and I’ve come up with a system that helps me effectively read the flow of the draft and allows me to better use my draft research during the frenzy of a draft.

Organizing Your Research
Compiling a draft list is an essential part of the draft, but knowing how to properly use that list is something that usually takes years of experience. I’ve come up with a grading system that allows you to reorganize your draft list into a more effective drafting tool. By breaking your list into player groupings rather than just a pure ranking, you increase your drafting flexibility and you are able to make spontaneous draft selections.

Once you have compiled your final draft list, you must determine how to group players that have similar “statistical” value within your league. I like to group players based upon the projected round of selection within the draft.

You could determine a different method of grouping players on your draft list, but the goal is to create a group of players that you feel are similar enough in “statistical” value that it doesn’t matter which player you pick from the group as long as he is the best fit for your team at that point in the draft.

Using Your Draft List and Player Groupings
If you look at the 2003 Fantasy Baseball Draft Cheat Sheets on this site for Shortstop, you see that Alex Rodriguez, Miguel Tejada, Nomar Garciaparra, and Derek Jeter are all slated to go within the first two rounds of the draft, so they would all be considered members of Group A. After the clear-cut first draft pick of Alex Rodriguez is made, the other three shortstops are practically interchangeable; therefore, based upon the plan you have for your team, you simply need to select the one guy you thinks fits best into your plans. If you prefer to have speed in your middle infield positions, then Jeter is the best choice for you, but if you believe speed is more suited to your outfield then grabbing a power hitting shortstop like Nomar Garciaparra or Miguel Tejada better fits into your plan. Or, you may want to start your draft by drafting a starting pitcher, so you would then need to choose between Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, or Pedro Martinez. All of the players will have similar “statistical” impacts on your team and are theoretically interchangeable.

In reality, the player groupings in the draft won’t drastically come into play until the beginning of the 5th round of your fantasy baseball draft. After each team has made their first 4 picks, you should be able to determine the premise behind how each owner is building their team. Some owners will have a corner man, a middle infielder, an outfielder, and a starting pitcher, which is a well-balanced beginning to the draft. Other owners may have two starting pitchers and two outfielders on their team, which seems to indicate that they are attempting to maximize their value, and are likely to be making trades early in the season to fill their needs. And finally, a few teams will have four power hitters or three stud pitchers on their roster already, and they are probably trying to use the domination theory to winning the league (hoping that they get a lot of bargains late in the draft to fill in their pitching or hitting needs).

If you want to build a completely balanced team to begin the season, you need to assess the picks made during the first four rounds and begin using the scarcity theory to drafting. For example, using the above grouping algorithm and the RotoRank.com 2003 projected draft valuations; the scarcity chart for a 12-team 5x5 category league can be created as follows:

Based on the above scarcity chart, you can easily see the positions with the least amount of depth in Player Group. Catcher is by far the weakest position with only 5 players ranked in the top 18 rounds (Group A represents rounds 1 and 2; Group B represents rounds 3 through 6; Group C represents rounds 7 through 12; and Group D represents rounds 13 through 18). The middle infield positions don’t fair much better with only 11 Second Basemen ranked in top 18 rounds and 12 Shortstops ranked in top 18 rounds. Third Base rounds out the scarce positions by having only 13 players ranked in top 18 rounds. The traditionally deeper positions seem to be Outfield, Starting Pitcher, Relief Pitcher, and First Base, as you would expect.

To illustrate the importance of the scarcity chart, let’s explain its application to one of the most common pit falls made by owners on draft day, the player “position runs”. In every draft there will be one or two instances where a group of consecutive picks will all be made from the same position. When a “position run” occurs in a scarce position, all of the owners in the draft take notice of the fact that a position is “drying up” and they begin to panic, concentrating too much about the quality players left at that position rather than the draft as a whole. I guarantee there will be at least one run on closers, starting pitchers, and probably second basemen in every 2003 fantasy baseball draft. The key to you having a great draft is knowing when to participate in the “position run” and when to ignore it.

The easiest example of this “group think” pitfall is Shortstop. It is likely that Miguel Tejada, Nomar Garciaparra, and Derek Jeter will all get selected very close together in the first two rounds. As you can see in the scarcity chart, after the top 4 shortstops, the next Shortstop expected to be taken should be in rounds 7 – 12 (according to the 2003 RotoRank projections); however, I’d be willing to bet that some owners in 2003 will draft Jimmy Rollins, Edgar Renteria, or Rafael Furcal before round 7. When an owner falls into this trap, he actually helps out all of the other owners in the league, and he really gives an advantage to the owners who selected the top 4 shortstops. When an owner selecting a player before his actual value dictates it, for example selecting a Group C player (rounds 7 through 12) in rounds 3 through 6 (Group B) of the fantasy draft, he then reduces his return on investment. The owners already with a shortstop will benefit the most, because there will be one extra “B” type player, at another position that they need to fill, available to them in the 7th round or later. Now you might be able to get away with making a Group C selection during rounds 3 through 6 at certain points in the draft, but if you would select Jimmy Rollins, Edgar Renteria, or Rafael Furcal in the 3rd round (the beginning of the “B” group range) instead of the 6th round (the end of the “B” group range), that could really set back your team, just because you wanted a “popular” player from the dwindling talent pool!

The only time I’d consider selecting a player earlier than his targeted group is if the draft is at a point where two groups are meeting, like rounds 2 and 3; rounds 6 and 7; rounds 12 and 13; rounds 18 and 19; or rounds 24 and 25. If you select a player who is hovering around each group’s breaking point, you can flip him into the earlier group, as long as you pick up the player you should have selected in the very next round. The reason you would want to flip players like this is to prevent other owners in a similar situation from “stealing” your player.

The “player run” pitfall is more likely to cause owners problems during a starting pitcher or relief pitcher run, because the impact is usually more subtle at the time the pick is made since you are in the middle rounds of the draft (rounds 7 through 18). There is a great tendency to panic when every team already has 2 starters and 2 closers, and you are sitting there with only one of each. If you attempt to match other team’s current allocation of players by dragging players from a lower group into a higher group just to make a pick in the “position run”, then you missing out on the opportunity to select the most valuable player available from your well researched draft list! Just imagine the impact that this effect can have if there are 4 fantasy experts using this drafting system and 8 rookie fantasy owners who consistently select players from weaker groups in earlier rounds just because they are trying to mimic the veteran owners. With all that extra higher quality talent available to veteran owners later in the draft, I’d be willing to be that at the start of the season, the 4 experts will be in top 5 slots in that league’s standings…

Shameless Self-Promotion of RotoRank Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep Software
It takes a lot of time and effort to compile an accurate Scarcity Chart for your league, especially if your league doesn’t use the typical 5x5 statistical categories. The custom ranking feature in RotoRank easily converts your draft list into a scarcity chart based on your personal rankings or RotoRank's 2003 fantasy baseball projections. RotoRank will allow you to print a report that will group players by position and player grouping, allowing you to have a quick reference guide for your live draft. The Scarcity Chart feature is available in version 1.2 of RotoRank that is available to all registered users. You can become a registered user of RotoRank for only $10 by visiting www.RotoRank.com

Conclusion
Although you can have a good draft by simply using your draft list to select the best available player on your list, you will likely need to put more effort into making some trades early on in the season to make a run for the title (which I’ve needed to do quite often). But, by putting a little extra time into your draft preparation and creating a scarcity chart, you will have the flexibility to build a more balanced team during the draft without sacrificing much value. If you use this fantasy draft system, I'm confident that you will have one of the best fantasy baseball drafts of your life. After completing your draft, you will have a sense of how well you did, but how your team will actually perform during the regular season will then be up to lady luck and your competition!