Around the Diamond

Draft Advice -- Notes from the NL East

by Howard Bender

New York Mets

From a fantasy perspective, drafting Mets is like fishing in freshly chummed waters.  From top to bottom, starters to hitters, there are plenty of options for you on draft day.  You can go pricey and go after no-brainers like David Wright or Jose Reyes or you can go cheap and find success with Ryan Church and Luis Castillo.  Either way you decide, you're going to find some quality numbers.

While Wright and Reyes anchor the infield from the left side and are easy first round selections, the right side is a little different.  I'm just not sold on a repeat from Carlos Delgado.  We can talk about his age; we can talk about his injuries; we can talk about his overall decline.  Yes, last year's numbers were great.  I won't take anything away from that.  But I see 2008 as his last gasp of greatness in an otherwise downward career spiral.  If you draft him hoping for even equal stats, you're goin gto be disappointed.

Castillo, I think, will be a somewhat different story.  Somewhat in the sense of "same story, just a year later".  He's out to prove last year's atrocity was a fluke and I can see his "last gasp" happening in 2009.  He looked great in the Dominican League this winter and he's come into camp looking solid.  There's definitely some injury risk attached, but there could still be some magic left in those legs.  With more talk of Reyes spending some time in the 3 hole, Castillo could find himself hitting some leadoff for a very strong offensive club.

The outfield is looking a little better than even just 2 weeks ago.  Carlos Beltran is a staple in center and a solid fantasy asset. But even the corners are looking good.  We'll have to monitor  this more as spring training progresses, but manager Jerry Manuel did a nice thing for us fantasy geeks by putting an end to the platoon talks.  Both Daniel Murphy and Church get a small boost in value as they're now the designated starters.  You won't get eye-popping numbers from either, but you could do a lot worse int he later rounds.  It's pretty safe to cross Fernando Tatis off your lists as he moves to full-time bench duty.

The Mets pitching has some interesting aspects to it.  Francsico Rodriguez comes in to take over the closing duties and remains a top tier closer in the fantasy world.  His presence, coupled with the addition of J.J. Putz to the middle relief corps, could mean a nice increase in wins for the starters.

And how about those starters?  I like John Maine and Oliver Perez as a couple of mid to late round pickups, and I think Mike Pelfrey could be an interesting late round addition.  All three have been showing signs of progress, and some people are talking about Citi Field playing as a better pitcher's park than Shea Stadium was.  That's yet to be determined, but I'd still keep the three of them on your depth charts.

But now for the big gun.  I'd say Johan Santana is a lock for a first round pick, but in all honesty, these recent elbow problems are making me a little nervous.  Now I'm not saying that he's done or that he's going to be hurt all year, but is that even a risk you want to take?  He's thrown over 200 innings for 5 straight seasons and maybe, just maybe it's caught up to him.  To draft him is to spend big auction bucks or to use a first round draft choice.  I'd rather spare myself the potential aggravation, grab a top notch hitter and look elsewhere for my pitching staff.  You'd be wise to follow suit.

Philadelphia Phillies

Last year's World Series champs took the ol' "if it ain't broke, don't fix it," mentality.  With virtually the same personnel, the Phils hope to produce another successful season and will again be a good source for fantasy power.  The ball park is a hitter's paradise and the lineup offers you three possible first rounders with a good mix of mid-level guys as well.  To continue the metaphor, drafting Phillies is like fishing from a boat 30 miles offshore as opposed to sitting on the dock with a piece of string and a stick.

Let's start with the one change the Phils did make this offseason.  After deciding against bringing back cult favorite Pat Burrell, the team made a real nice move as a replacement.  So nice, that I actually consider it an upgrade.  A big upgrade in fact.  Raul Ibanez finally makes his way out of the doldrums of Seattle and will take his career .286 batting average and 20+ HR for the past 4 seasons and move on to the city of brotherly love.  He's durable, he doesn't strike out a lot, and will provide much better protection than his predecessor.

The rest of the Phillies line up the same.  Jimmy Rollins is the catalyst at the top of the lineup, Ryan Howard will continue to hit bomb after bomb, Chase Utley, who will make it back in time for Opening Day, will be back to his old self, and I even think we'll see a little more from the Flyin' Hawaiian Shane Victorino.  I'm hoping that Greg Dobbs eventually beats out Pedro Feliz, and Carlos Ruiz should improve behind the dish.

The only guy I really don't see repeating a sound performance is Jayson Werth.  Everyone's going to be real high on this guy since he joined the coveted 20-20 club last season, but I'd be very wary if I were you.  First of all, he's a huge injury risk.  It's been a black eye on him since his ealry days with the Dodgers.  Second of all, there's nothing in his minor league totals that dictates this kind of regualr power or regular speed.  There's a reason, besides the injuries, that he toiled in the minors for all those years and couldn't beat out guys like Andre Ethier or Jose Cruz, Jr.  I'm not saying don;t take a shot, but definitely not until later on.  Let someone else reach too high for him.

The pitching also looks the same going into this year.  Brad Lidge remains the closer although I'd really be surprised if he maintained the same level of play.  As great as he was last year, you have to remember that this guy was known to implode on th emound back in Houston and was even pulled from the closer's role prior to his arrival in Philly.

Cole Hamels remains the best of the lot and should be solid as he proves that his new 3 years contract wasn't a mistake.  You'll get solid ratios with great K's all season long.  The rest of the lot gets a bit more questionable.  Aside form the home park, you've got some serious questions with Joe Blanton and Kyle Kendrick.  Can they eat enough innings and still keep their team in the game?  You definitely have to wonder how much longer Jamie Moyer can go.  And then there's the question of which Brett Myers can we expect?  He was 3-9 with a 5.84 ERA in the first half last year but was then lights out in the second, posting a 7-4 record with a 3.04 ERA.  My guess is that he meets you somewhere in the middle.

Atlanta Braves

Speaking of sitting on the dock with a piece of string.  Hitting wise that is.  The Braves pitching, in my opinion, coul dbe the best part about this squad.   They brought in some good veteran arms that should help guide the youngsters down the right path.  Unfortuantely, they may have to teach them the art of the shutout because it looks like the Braves coul dhave some difficulty putting up runs.

Let's start with the bad news first.  Always a safe play.  It's not liek they're the most awful group, but for fantasy purposes, there's really not much to get excited about.  When your 2 best hitters are your catcher and a thid baseman who spends as much time on the DL as he does with his grandkids invthe offseason, you've got some issues.  I would definitely be looking at Brian McCann, but I'm always wary of drafting Chipper Jones.  He seems to prove me wrong sometimes, but for me, it's just not worth the risk.

The rest of the lineup is littered with mediocrity.  I'm not a fan of Jeff Francoeur and last year's demotion screams volumes.  He did make it back to the bigs in September and hit .286, but there was no power at all as he hit only 1 home run that month.  The middle infield of Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson are mid to late round picks at best.  They won't hurt you, numbers-wise, but they're not doing much to push you ahead of the pack.  And don't even start me on Casey Kotchman.  He's the poster boy for mediocrity.  Good first half with a disappearing act after the trade to Atlanta.  There are much better options for you at first.

The pitching is where I think the Braves will shine this year.  Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe will make fine additions to the staff.  Lowe is a steady guy who would serve you very well as your 3rd or 4th starter, and I think Vazquez is primed for a breakout.  The move back to the NL and into a pitcher friendly park should do wonders for him.  Expect great ratios and big strikeouts. 

Jair Jurrjens should also be a nice pickup, but just be careful with him towards the second half of the season.  Last year's 188+ innings were a career high and he's definitely not used to throwing that much in a season.  I coul dsee him coming out strong again, but fading sometime around August as he tries to pace himself for 200 innings this year. 

The wild card on the staff is Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami.  He's 33 years old and doesn't have a knee-buckling fastball.  He could turn into a good corner-nibbler, but monitor his walks if that's the case.  Tommy Hanson is obviously the sleeper, but the uber-prospect will probably start the season in the minors.

Mike Gonzalez anchors the bullpen with the closer's job, but don't rule out Rafael Soriano or Manny Acosta.  Gonzalez has never been the picture of health, so the vultures will be circling.

Florida Marlins

I think a fishing metaphor is going a little too far, so we'll skip it here.  I've always liked plucking late round sleepers off the Marlins, and this year might not be too different.  Back in 2006, I was lucky enough to snag both Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla for a buck each in the latter part of my auction draft and grabbed them both again in the 22nd and 24th rounds for another league.  You'll be hard pressed to find equal talent this year, but there still might be a few guys that could be worth a late round stab.

Ramirez and Uggla should remain the anchors in the infield, but the corners, right now, are still up for grabs.  Gaby Sanchez is penciled in as the starter over at first with Jorge Cantu at the hot corner.  However, Sanchez isn't off to the greatest start this spring and there's been talk of moving Cantu over to first to make room for former uber-prospect Dallas McPhereson.  For those of you who remember, McPhereson was a can't miss prospect for the Angels until his shoddy defense and strikeout-heavy offense pushed him out the door.  Keep your eyes on this one, as the battle could go down to the wire.

I have a good feeling about backup 2B Emilio Bonifacio.  He's got great speed and his range is solid enough to warrant the team carrying him as a utility guy.  The team can't afford to lose Uggla's power in the lineup, so Bonifacio won't see any full time action, but he coul dbe a nice source of cheap steals off the bench.

I don't know why he's sticking out to me, but keep an eye on catcher John Baker.  He's a late bloomer and his minor league numbers don't dictate any kind of big power, but I just have a hunch about him.  When he was brought up last year, he hit .299 with 5 HR in just under 200 AB and I think it's something he can build on.  He may lose some at bats to Mike Rabelo, but if my gut is right, he"ll have the full time job soon.

The trade of Josh Willingham and the woes of Jeremy Hermida have put the Marlins outfield in some disarray.  Ultra-hyped rookie Cameron Maybin shoul dget the starting gig in center and will probably hit leadoff.  His 5 tool potential is tough to resist, but beware of talking him too high or getting into a bidding war.  Personally, I love him, but since he was actually supposed to arrive last year, I'm a bit wary.

The corners in the outfield, for now, look to be Cody Ross and Hermida, but the competition is definitely open.  Scott Cousins, who tore up the Arizona Fall League may get a shot and then there's veterans Jay Gibbons, Alfredo Amezaga, and even Alejandro de Aza.  With Amezaga's versatility, I expect him to stay up along with maybe Gibbons, but right now, only Hermida looks like a mid round pick.

Pitching has always been a strong suit for the Marlins.  They've shipped out more talent than some clubs have even seen.  Josh Johnson is my favorite for this year and after that I like Chris Volstad and Ricky Nolasco.  All three can get themselves into the 7th innings and shoul dproduce solid middle of the rotation fantasy numbers.  I'm still not a fan of Anibal Sanchez, but I do like lefty Andrew Miller as a late round sleeper.  I think, if he gets the oppotunity, he could develop into a high quality starter.

The bullpen is obviously worrisome with no bona fide closer.  Matt Lindstrom will get the nod to start, but keep your eyes on Taylor Tankersley and maybe even Logan Kensing.  I like Leo Nunez, but he fits more in line as an 8th inning type guy.  For the second half, don't forget about Henry Owens who was suspended for 50 games for a positive test.  He closed for a while last year and could be a nice mid-season pick up.

Washington Nationals

What looks like the bottom feeders of the NL East, could still be a fantastic resource for fantasy owners.  Their offseason work wasn't extensive, but they did make some nice improvements.  In the immortal words of Lou Brown, "There's two or three potential all stars there."

Let's start with the big offseason acquisition.  For a team that ranked in the bottom 3 of runs produced last year, the Nats got themselves a big ol' bat in Adam Dunn.  He's raked 40 HR in each of his last 5 seasons, and should coninue his powerful ways in the meat of the Nats' lineup.  Sure the BA stinks, but 40 bombs is 40 bombs. 

What his presence inthe lineup should do is elevate the games of Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes and Ryan Zimmerman.  I think the four of them, along with a potentially healthy (stop laughing) Nick Johnson, are going to surprise a lot of teams this year.  My only worry is that the table setters, Cristian Guzman and Anderson Hernandez, may not produce the way we hope, limiting the RBI totals of the power guys. 

Another oft-injured player, former Marlin Josh Willingham, could be a nice addition, if injuries hit the Nationals like they have in the past.  He can play both corners in the outfield, first base, and if Jesus Flores (a little sleeper of mine) ever gets hurt, he's got the backstop experience.  Obviously Hammer's back is a concern, so don't go fishing for him just yet.

I'm really not a fan, fantasy -wise, of the Nats pitching.  John Lannan and Scott Olsen lead the staff, but neither is worth more than a late middle round pick.  After that, you've got another injury risk in Shawn Hill and the always enigmatic Daniel Cabrera.  If Cabrera can regain some control, he coul dbe huge in the NL.  His strikeout potential is awesome, but if he doesn't stay focused, the WHIP will kill you.

I like Joel Hanrahan as the new closer, but his opportunities may be tough to come by with that lot of starters.  We"ll see, but keep him on your radar for late, as even closers on bad teams can be big fantasy bonuses.  See: Joakim Soria. 

For more advice, 2009 Position Tiers, player rankings, and sleepers, check out what's going on over at Rotobuzz.com.

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Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and champion in both rotisserie and head to head leagues.  For questions, thoughts or comments, you can email him at Howard.Rotobuzz@yahoo.com.