Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

College Football: Week 5 games picks ATS

By Nostradamus. As they say, "time sure flies when you're having fun", right?  Well, to me it still feels like the opening weekend in College Football, and...poof!  We are at Week 5 of the 2008 College Football season. 

All told, your fellow prognosticator had a solid weekend in Week four going 7-4 against the number.  That means for the season I stand at 24-15-1 ATS. That is a 61.5 percent clip. 

Not too shabby by any standards. Enough already about patting myself on the proverbial back, what do I 'think' about Week 5? We shall see. 

In week 5, things are starting to really heat up as many teams are entering their slate of conference games while others are finishing up their non-conference against strong opponents.  No doubt about it, this is definitely a tough week to pick the 'tough' games at hand. 

But here goes............

Thursday:
USC @ Oregon State (+ 25 1/2): If this game were played in Week 1, USC would have been favored anywhere from six to 10 points.  However, this is Week 5, and the Beavers are struggling while the mightily Trojans are flexing their muscle as being the team to beat in College Football this year.  We can bag on the Pac 10 all we want, but one thing will be for sure. USC will absolutely get everyone's best shot from here on out in the Pac 10. 

I have said it before, and I will say it again, NOBODY is as good or as bad as their last outing.  That is the mantra of anybody that takes wagering seriously.  The last time that USC traveled to Corvallis, they were 10-point favorites and were handed the bitter taste of defeat, 33-31.  This was also the site in which Mark Sanchez was introduced to the ebbs and flows of the great game of College Football.  Two years later and we find ourselves at a paradox. 

Oregon State is reeling badly. They can't stop anybody from running the football, and they can't keep their QB Moevao from throwing interceptions.  That is a bad recipe against what can be argued as the best Defense in all of College Football, and one of the more potent stable of RBs in the entire country as well.  This game will likely get out of hand early, and look for the Trojan defense to score a TD themselves. 

Hard to give 25 1/2 points on the road to anybody in conference play, but this one just doesn't seem to fit very well for the home team.  Especially when you consider 'running out the clock' means a 5-star talent like Allen Bradford will get a chance to taste the endzone against a depleted and disheartened stop unit from Oregon State.  Take USC and lay the healthy post.
USC 58 Oregon State 10.

Friday:
Connecticut @ Louisville (- 3): Which Louisville team will show up is the question. The one that struggled to score any points on offense against Kentucky, or the one that pounded Kansas State last week? I will go with the latter. And with the revenge factor of the 'fair catch' punt return looming from last year's upset, don't be afraid to play that angle in this year's contest.  I'm sure many a Louisville coach, fan, and player hasn't forgotten about it either.
Louisville 27 Connecticut 17.

Saturday:
Northwestern @ Iowa (- 8 1/2): The Wildcats are 4-0.  Iowa, and their embattled head coach Kirk Ferentz are coming off a disappointing 1-point loss at the hands of struggling Pittsburgh and Dave Wannstedt.  Throw in the fact that Iowa now finds themselves in a QB controversy and it seems all too easy to take Northwestern and the points.  I'll bite and side with logic, but I also have a feeling that Iowa may respond very strongly in this contest.  Definitely not my favorite game, but I'll take the points, go against my gut, and play the dog in this one.
Iowa 29  Northwestern  23.

Purdue @ Notre Dame (- 1 1/2): Notre Dame wasn't beaten as soundly as the 23 - 7 final from last week's tangle with Michigan State as many would make you believe.  MSU was able to force some costly turnovers of the still learning QB Jimmy Clausen into their reward.  They also road the coattails of Javon Ringer.  Purdue is off a disheartening loss to Oregon from two weeks ago and needed everything they had to put away Central Michigan last week. This is an extremely tough game to handicap with a plethora of questions surrounding it. 

Will Kory Sheets be nearly as effective running the ball as Javon Ringer?  Will Notre Dame continue to make mistakes and turn the ball over against an opportunistic Purdue defense?  Will Curtis Painter find his groove as one of the more talented signal callers in the country, or will Jimmy Clausen continue to make strides in his decision making in the pocket for the Irish?  Tough questions all.  In a game that has a lot of bowl aspirations for both teams at stake, I'll side with the home team, and make a meager play on the Irish.
Notre Dame 23  Purdue 16. 

Minnesota @ Ohio State (- 17 1/2): In case you haven't noticed, the Golden Gophers are 4-0.  The Bucks are still trying to recoup for the yearlong emphasis on the USC game, and have played less than inspiring football thus far this season. Adam Weber is one of the best QBs you have never heard of, and he plays for Minnesota.  He is also mobile. This could turn into a shocker if Terrelle Pryor is unable to carry the attitude that the Bucks so desperately need. And he is a true freshman.  I won't call for the outright upset, but I will call for this to be a very tightly contested game well into the fourth quarter.
Ohio State 31  Minnesota 27.

Virginia Tech @ Nebraska (- 7): Another tip in wagering is to separate your heart from your head.  Obviously, this is a tough one for me to make any kind of selection as my Huskers, with their new coaching staff in tow, taking on a tough-minded Hokie squad fresh off three straight thrilling contests against much better competition.  My Huskers have struggled hard to run the football this year against inferior competition.  It won't get any easier against the staunch defense that the Hokies put on the field. 

The Hokies' front four is very underrated and their secondary is one of the best in the country.  On defense the Huskers will have to contain a mobile QB in Tyrod Taylor. However, they will not be faced with a strong rush attack or many playmakers outside of the guy under center. This game will simply come down to the hometown crowd willing their team to victory. I fully expect that they do just that.  However, it won't be enough to cover the number in yet another classic Husker night homegame.
Nebraska 23  Virginia Tech 19.

Tennessee @ Auburn (- 6 1/2): Tennessee was not as un-competitive as many would think against Florida.  The 6 1/2 points on the road at Auburn pretty well explains that notion.  Auburn just took a huge blow to their pre-season goals in a last minute loss to LSU last week.  This is a psyche check for both teams.   In a game and a line that doesn't make much sense I'll side with the underdog and call for the outright upset..
Tennessee 23  Auburn 16.

Wisconsin @ Michigan (+ 6): Michigan isn't nearly as bad as everyone is saying, and Wisconsin isn't nearly as good as every believes they are either.  I have no doubts that Michigan will vastly improve as the season progresses.  Look for the Michigan offense to get some traction with Sam McGuffie and crew, and I'll call for the home upset in this one, as everyone and their dog throws their garbage at me.
Michigan 27  Wisconsin 24.

Colorado @ Florida State (- 5 1/2): There are 15 ways to Saturday to look at this game.  Thus, I'll be short.  Florida State is reeling, and Colorado is getting better.  I'll take a short line and Colorado in the 'upset'.
Colorado 24  Florida State 13.

Illinois @ Penn State (- 14): Penn State looks like a team that may cover any line put in front of them.  Illinois looks like a team destined to crawl back into the bottom half of the Big 10. 
Penn State 41  Illinois 14.

TCU @ Oklahoma (- 17 1/2): TCU was the last team to beat Oklahoma on their home field.  Don't think that fact is lost on the boys from Oklahoma.  However, TCU is a very good defensive football team and should cause the Sooners some troubles.  They will also shorten the game against Oklahoma with their solid special teams play and heady defense.  Most will look at this line as an easy one for Oklahoma.  They shouldn't.  The Sooners will prevail, but it won't be that easy.
OU  31  TCU  17.

Game of the Week:

Alabama @ Georgia (- 7): Alabama fans have been waiting for this game. Although they will be predominantly on the sidelines having to watch as their Tide are playing 'between the hedges'.  This is the first real hurdle that the Bulldogs have to overcome this year.  From what I'm hearing this will be a 'Blackout' game for Georgia.  Last year they were 2-0 in such contests, as well as against the spread.  These are the games that make College Football great.  Put away the records, put away the history, put away...well ...virtually everything.  These are two damn good football teams. Period. 

Stafford will not enjoy the passing lanes and time he enjoyed against Arizona State.  Alabama will not enjoy rushing for 10+ yards per carry like they enjoyed against a downtrodden Arkansas squad.  Something has to give, right?  I might be out of my skull on this one, but I very much like the Crimson Tide to pull off the outright upset in this one. Saban is a gamer, and he will pull out everything he can to get these young'uns to overachieve a very monumental task.  Look for a fake punt, an onside kick, or a special-teams play to turn the 'Tide' in this one.  My personal play of the week. Take Alabama and the outright money line.
Alabama 27 Georgia 22.

That is Week 5 as I see it.