Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

2008 preview: NFC East.

The NFC East is probably the most competitive NFL division heading into the 2008 season. The New York Giants are the defending Super Bowl Champions. The Dallas Cowboys won 13 games and had the number one seed in the NFC. The Redskins won their last 4 games to make the playoffs as the final wildcard.  Finally, the Eagles finished strong and were a very dangerous 8-8 team at the end of the season that did not qualify for the postseason.  The only other division that has a claim to being as competitive as the NFC East would be the AFC South, which also had 3 teams qualify for the playoffs in 2007. Here is how I see the 2008 season playing out in the AFC East. By Derek Lofland.

1 Dallas Cowboys

‘07 Record: 13-3
Points Scored: 455 (2nd)
Points Allowed: 325 (13th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Divisional Round
2008 Strength of Schedule: 134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The Dallas Cowboys had a very impressive start to their 2007 season. In their first 13 games they went 12-1 with their only loss being to the New England Patriots. In their first 12 games they outscored their opponents 395-248, or by an average of 12.25 points per game. After their 37-27 victory against 10-1 Green Bay they looked poised to be the NFC favorite to take on the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl. However, things didn’t go according to plan. They went 2-2 in their last 4 games and were outscored 60-77. Then the Cowboys were upset in the playoffs, by the eventual champion NY Giants, 21-17. It was a very disappointing end to a season that looked destined to end with a Super Bowl appearance.

The Cowboys had a load of talent on their roster in 2007. They sent a record 11 players to the Pro Bowl, 7 of which were starters. The number one strength on the Cowboys was the offensive line. Three of their seven Pro Bowl starters came from that unit, Flozell Adams, Leonard Davis, and Andre Gurode. With Tony Romo given plenty of time to throw the ball and the numerous great weapons they had on offense the Cowboys put up points with great ease. Tony Romo threw for 4,211 yards and 36 touchdowns in his first full year starting. Jason Witten had a career-year at Tight End with 96 catches for 1145 yards and 7 touchdowns.Terrell Owens had 81 catches for 1355 yards and 15 touchdowns. Marion Barber posted 975 rushing yards and 282 receiving yards to go along with his 12 touchdowns. Nick Folk made the Pro Bowl as the NFC Kicker.

What it adds up to is an offense that dominated the NFC.Furthermore, their only key loss this offseason on offense was Julius Jones, who signed with Seattle. The Cowboys have promptly taken care of that loss. They added RB Felix Jones in the first round and TE Martellus Bennett to play opposite Witten in the second round.
The only need the Cowboys did not address this season was wide receiver. TO is still an elite NFL receiver, but he is going to be 35-years-old.Terry Glenn was hurt until the final game of the season. He is going to be 34. Patrick Crayton had a solid year filling in for Glenn, but still has a ways to go.
It is obvious the Cowboys would be in trouble if TO were to miss significant time. Teams don’t have backups that can produce at the same level as him. Still without him in the lineup they go from scary to below average at the receiver position. He must find a way to stay healthy and play as close to 16 games as possible, something he hasn’t done since 2001.

Weaknesses: The defense was the major issue with the Cowboys in 2007. The Cowboys had a great front 7. They were able to finish 6th in rushing yards allowed. Outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware was named a starter to the Pro Bowl. He had 14 sacks. That was another area the Cowboys excelled at, finishing 3rd in the NFL with 46 sacks. They also did well forcing turnovers. The Cowboys finished 6th in the NFL with 19 picks. Ken Hamlin and Terrance Newman were chosen as Pro Bowl reserves. Both started for the Cowboys in their secondary.

What the Cowboys didn’t do very well was stop the pass. They finished 13th in the league in that regard. As a result of the yards they gave up in the passing game and the 19 interceptions that Tony Romo threw the Cowboys gave up 20.3 points per game, which ranked 13th. For all the great plays Tony Romo makes he needs to cut down on the interceptions if the Cowboys are going to be playing February football.
I’m not saying the Cowboys were horrible on defense. They did a lot of things well and their weaknesses are not that bad in the whole scheme of things. However, if the Cowboys want to reach their desired destination as Super Bowl Champions, they need to shore up those areas.
The Cowboys tried to do that this offseason.They made their second first round pick a corner in Michael Jenkins. They also traded for Pacman Jones. If he can stay out of trouble and gain reinstatement from the NFL, he should be able to help this team. The signing of Zach Thomas could be big as well. If he can stay healthy, he will be a nice veteran presence in the middle of the Cowboys’ Defense.

Prediction: It is either the Super Bowl or bust in 2008. The Cowboys have made the playoffs each of the last 2 seasons, only to lose in the first round of the playoffs. As an organization, they haven’t won a playoff game since 1996. Combined with the talent they bring back and the new talent they acquired via 2 first round draft picks, Zach Thomas, and Pacman Jones expectations will be through the roof. Chemistry will be a big issue in 2008. While the talent of the Cowboys is not questioned, how that talent will interact in the locker room still is. Also Tony Romo needs to cut down on his distractions off the field. There is nothing wrong with him using his celebrity to his advantage, but it shouldn’t be spilling onto the football field.  He has to minimize those things as much as possible.

The Cowboys always have a brutal divisional schedule. They get 4 playoff games in the division and the Philadelphia Eagles who beat them at the end of last season in Dallas. Their out-of-conference schedule appears to be a little tougher than 2007.  While the Patriots and Packers were very tough, those were the only two-playoff teams they faced outside the division. This year they get Green Bay, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. It is difficult to say if those teams will be as good in 2008 as they were a year ago. Pittsburgh and Cleveland also provide some competitive games.  I think the Cowboys will have roughly the same record as they did in 2007, but I don’t expect them to jump out to the 12-1 start they did a year ago. If the Cowboys can cut down on their turnovers and stop the pass better in 2008, there is no reason this team will not finish as the NFC’s number one seed for the second year in a row.
Dallas Cowboy’s Record: 12-4 – NFC East Divisional Champion; NFC #1 Seed.

2 Philadelphia Eagles

‘07 Record: 8-8
Points Scored: 336 (17th)
Points Allowed: 300 (9th)
Playoff Result: N/A
2008 Strength of Schedule:  133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)

Strengths:The Eagles have been the most dominant team in the division since 2000. The Eagles have won the division 5 times and made the playoffs 6 times. Prior to 2007 the Eagles had missed the playoffs only once, which was in 2005 during the season of the TO circus.
However, last season the Eagles finished in last place in the NFC East and failed to qualify for the playoffs. Still the Eagles had a number of good things working for them. Most last place teams normally finish 4-12, not 8-8.The Eagles finished the season strong and had it not been for a 3-game losing streak to end November and begin December the Eagles could have made the playoffs.

On offense, Brian Westbrook quietly had a 2,104 all-purpose yard season. He also scored 12 touchdowns.  Considering his quarterback was coming off a serious knee injury in 2006 and the Eagles did not have a dominant receiving core, Westbrook should be applauded for his productivity in 2007. He is the most complete running back in the NFL not named LT.
Donovan McNabb did fairly well coming back from knee surgery. He started 14 games and had 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions to go with his 89.9 QB rating. Kevin Curtis and McNabb had good chemistry at times. Curtis was able to finish with 1,110 yards receiving and 6 touchdowns.
However, as usual the main strength of the Eagles was their defense. Under Jimmy Johnson the Eagles have been a mainstay in the top rankings of the NFL’s defenses. The Eagles’ 300 points allowed ranked 9th in the NFL. They also ranked 10th in yards allowed, and 7th in rushing yards allowed. Trent Cole registered 12.5 sacks.

Weaknesses: The Eagles had three main weaknesses in 2007. The first was a lack of quality playmakers. Other than Brian Westbrook, there is no one on the Eagles that keeps defensive coordinators up into all hours of the night game planning. Some will point to Kevin Curtis and suggest that he has the potential to be a number one receiver as evidenced by his 1,110 yards and 7 touchdowns. That is blindly looking at stats and not looking at how they were obtained. In week 3 Curtis had the game of his life. He had 11 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns. That means in the other 15 games he averaged 4.4 catches for 59.3 yards and 1 touchdown every 5 games. That just is not acceptable from a number one receiver. Reggie Brown also regressed in 2007. He went from 8 touchdowns in 2006 to 4 in 2007 and his yards dropped from 816 to 780.  He did not have the breakout year he was hoping for. The Eagles did add DeShaun Jackson via the draft to provide depth in the return game and at the 3rd receiver spot. However, they were not able to obtain that impact wide receiver they were lacking this offseason.

The second problem was their return team. The fumbles they had in punt return game against Green Bay alone cost them that game. They needed to find a quality return man as Westbrook is too valuable to risk injury playing at that position. Jackson should make an immediate impact in that regard.

The final weakness was in the secondary. The Eagles ranked 18th in yards allowed and their defense finished tied for last in the NFL in interceptions with just 11. Part of that was due to the rash of injuries they suffered in their secondary at the beginning of the season. That was the motivation for landing the prize of the 2008 free agency period in Samuel. He is a great playmaker that should fit into the Eagles’ secondary. If Brown, Shepherd, and Dawkins can avoid injures the Eagles have the potential to make a lot more plays in the secondary. It will also give Jimmy Johnson more flexibility to blitz knowing he has the secondary to cover the receivers in one-on-one coverage. That should be a big boost for the Eagles in their team’s sack numbers.

3 New York Giants

‘07 Record: 10-6
Points Scored: 373 (14th)
Points Allowed: 351 (17th)
Playoff Result: Won Super Bowl
2008 Strength of Schedule:133-123 (.520) (15th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: The NY Giants were the most unlikely of Super Bowl Champions.  At 10-6 they were the 5th seed in the NFC and were faced with having to win 4 games away from home. They had lost 2 of their final 3 games of the season, but seemed to gain momentum with their strong performance against the Patriots in the season finale. Still, #5 seeds are not supposed to win Super Bowls.
However, the Giants had gone 7-1 in the regular season on the road, losing their only road game in the opener against Dallas. The NY Giants rode that road dominance to 11 straight road victories and the Super Bowl trophy.
The strength of the New York Giants is their front 4 on defense.Michael Strahan, Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Fred Robbins form one of the best defensive front fours in the entire NFL. The NY Giants generated the most pressure on the quarterback in 2007 amassing an amazing 53 sacks.

At the beginning of the season the linebackers and secondary could not cover anyone. As the season progressed, the Giants got better in that regard. Sam Madison, Aaron Ross, and Corey Webster became much better at covering the pass in the second half of the season. While the Giants did lose Gibril Wilson to the Raiders in free agency, they also drafted Kenny Phillips to come into the organization and compete for the starting safety spot.
The linebacker spot is the unit on defense with the most questions. Pierce is still a strong middle linebacker and Mathias Kiwanuka should be ready for the start of the season. He was injured toward the end of the 2007 regular season. This is a unit that did not begin to gel until later in the season, but once everything came together the defense was able to carry the Giants to the Super Bowl title. Mitchell and Torbor were lost to free agency, so they will have to replace them in 2008.

On offense, the strength of the team was their running game. The NY Giants finished 4th in the NFL with a host of running backs. Brandon Jacobs, Derrick Ward, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Reuben Droughns all contributed at times in 2007.
Eli Manning had a very average regular season. He had a 73.9 rating and 20 interceptions to go with his 3,336 yards passing and 23 touchdown throws.  But in the end he was able to put everything together and lead his team to the Super Bowl. Plaxico Burress is a fantastic wide receiver and had 12 touchdown catches. Jeremy Shockey is a good tight end, but was the subject of trade rumors this offseason after the NY Giants offense didn’t miss a beat in the wake of his injury. He is still very talented and will help an offense that features Toomer, Smith, Tyree, and rookie Mario Manningham.

Weaknesses: The NY Giants have a couple of big question marks headed into the season. First: Which Eli Manning is going to show up in 2008? The one that killed his team with a poor completion percentage and 20 interceptions or the one that started playing after the NY Giants lost to the Patriots in the season finale. If the Giants are going to excel in the regular season, Eli has to take care of the ball for an entire 16 game season. While I don’t expect him to play as well as he did in the playoffs, I don’t think he will return to his 2007 regular season numbers. I expect something in between the two. I would think that he would get 3,500 yards, 25 touchdown throws, and 12-15 interceptions.

The second question is whether Michael Strahan is going to retire or comeback for another season. Personally, I think he would be unwise to come back in 2008. He will be 37 in November and what better way to go out than win a Super Bowl in your final game. He is nowhere close to catching Bruce Smith for the NFL record in sacks and now that he is a champion he has nothing left to prove. Anything short of repeating would be a disappointing season.
If he doesn’t come back, how is that going to affect the dynamics of the Giants front 4? Similar to the Packers who are losing Favre, there is a lot of talent in that front 7. However, because none of those players have played without Strahan, it is unclear whether or not the Giants defense will be as dominant without him. The Giants do not have a good record in recent years when he doesn’t play.

Prediction: The Giants are a difficult team to predict for 2008. They basically played 2 seasons in 2007. Week 1-15 where they turned the ball over too much and had problems stopping downfield passing offenses and Week 16 through the Super Bowl where they were difficult to move the ball against and took care of the ball. Regardless, they averaged 21.25 points per game in the postseason, so if anyone thinks this offense is going to evolve into the 2007 Patriots, I think they are going to be in shock. This is a team that is going to run the ball, take their shots downfield, and rely on their defense to win games.  I think as their younger receivers develop, we may see them put a few more points on the board.
As I stated earlier, the big key is going to be the decision of Michael Strahan and whether or not he wants to return in 2008. If he does they will be a formidable opponent and will challenge the Cowboys for the division. If he doesn’t they still will be very good, but probably in the running for the final playoff spot. I don’t think he is going to come back, and therefore I am predicting about the same record in 2008 and the #6 seed for the defending champions.
NY Giants Record: 9-7 – NFC East 3rd Place; NFC #6 seed.

4 Washington Redskins

‘07 Record: 9-7
Points Scored: 334 (18th)
Points Allowed: 310 (11th)
Playoff Result: Lost in Wild Card Round
2008 Strength of Schedule:134-122 (.523) (13th (t) in NFL)

Strengths: In 2007 the Redskins looked like a ship that was sinking fast.  After a 5-3 start to the season, they lost 4 games in a row and were sitting at 5-7. Sean Taylor was tragically shot dead in his home. When the Redskins lost to the Bills largely on a timeout mishap that gave the Bills a field goal that was 15 yards closer to win the game the season looked to be lost. However, the Redskins won their last 4 games of the season guided by the veteran backup Todd Collins, as they were able to sneak into the playoffs as the # 6 seed before losing to the Seattle Seahawks in what would be Hall of Fame Coach Joe Gibb’s last game.
Jim Zorn is inheriting a strong cast of players. Clinton Portis was able to stay relatively healthy in 2007 and rushed for 1,262 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Jason Campbell was able to make good strides, despite not having much help at the receiver position. Todd Collins is a solid backup.

On defense the Redskins finished 4th against the run and 7th in rushing touchdowns allowed. Their front 7 set the tempo for this defense. Andre Carter had 10.5 sacks.
The secondary was fairly average. LaRon Landry looks like the real deal at safety and Rodgers, Springs, and Smoot are solid corners.The Redskins ranked 16th in passing yards allowed. Some games they were brilliant, such as the Tampa Bay and Detroit’s games when they allowed less than 100 yards passing. Other games like the road games against Dallas (293) and New England (334) they allowed way too many yards.The Redskins will have to find a way to replace Sean Taylor in their secondary. While I hate to talk Xs and Os when there was such a human tragedy involved, the fact still remains that the Redskins were a much tougher pass defense when he was starting.  Replacing a player that was as talented as he was is difficult.

Weaknesses:The Redskins really struggled to move the ball through the air.  Part of that was Jason Campbell entering his first year as the full time starter.  Anytime a team puts a young quarterback in the lineup there are going to be peaks and valleys. However, the fact remains that he had one touchdown pass or less in 10 of his 13 starts. That number has to improve.
A lot of that has to be blamed on the receivers. Portis had 11 touchdown runs and tight end Chris Cooley caught 8 touchdowns. However, no receiver caught a touchdown until James Thrash did in Week 10 against the Philadelphia Eagles. That is unacceptable. The Redskins overhauled the receiver position this offseason by drafting Malcolm Kelly and Devin Thomas in the 2nd round.I really liked the draft approach by the Redskins to get younger and bigger at wide receiver. Both are bigger receivers and should be better targets in the redzone.
Still, rookie receivers rarely make a big impact in their first year. While Randy Moss exploded into the league in Year 1, even great receivers like Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne took a few years to blossom. If this unit is going to be viable in 2008, Santana Moss must step up to the plate. The Redskins have to score more than 334 points playing in a division with Dallas, New York Giants, and Philly.