In this segment, I will first grade my Mock draft published last month. Then I'll talk about the top 5 questions that emerged from the draft weekend. Keep in mind that with 32 NFL teams there is no way I could mention every team or player. If I didn’t mention your favorite team or player talk about it in the comments section and I will try to address it. By Derek Lofand.
Grading my Mock Draft – I didn’t do Mock Draft 8.0, so keep that in mind when evaluating my Mock Draft. I did one mock draft that was published on March 31, 2008. I am giving myself ½ point each for having both Longs going to Miami and St. Louis, just mixing up the first names. I got Ryan, Ellis, and Talib going to the right teams, which was not super. However, I had 8 of the 10 players going correctly in the top 10, with Clady going number 12 instead of number 5. 22 of my 31 players in the mock were selected in the first round.
The only players I put in the first round that didn’t get selected on the first day were Reggie Smith and Mario Manningham, whom I admitted at the time was slipping on many draft boards and that I wouldn’t be surprised in a month if he wasn’t there. Both were selected in the 3rd round.
The position I struck out on was wide receiver. I thought Jackson, Kelly, and Sweed would all go first round. Not only did they fail to go first round, but 6 receivers went before them in the 2nd round. That was brutal.
Overall, considering I never updated the mock draft for the month before the draft and it didn’t take into account trades, bad pro day workouts, and other issues I would give myself a B. By no means excellent, but pretty good considering it was done a month before the NFL draft and was significantly altered by the Allen trade and the record amount of trades overall in the draft.
5 questions
1) Did Kansas City do the right thing in trading Jared Allen for a first round, two third round, and a sixth round pick? – I think the Chiefs got this right. Allen has been disgruntled in Kansas City the last few seasons. Even though he had 15.5 sacks despite missing a couple games and is only 26-years old, the fact is the Chiefs lost 12 games in 2007. He wasn’t going to get the Chiefs to the mountaintop by himself. They needed to rebuild on both sides of the ball. He was the player that could most help them do that. By getting 4 picks they were able to add a potential Pro Bowl defensive tackle, offensive tackle, and cornerback and secure a lot of depth at other positions.
The gamble for Kansas City is that with Allen you know what you are getting. With these guys you don’t. The draft can be very unforgiving. Look at what happened to Minnesota when they traded Randy Moss. They struck out with Williamson and Harris while losing a Hall of Fame wide receiver.
However, I think the Chiefs made some safe picks and I think the trade has the potential to help both teams. The Vikings needed someone to pressure the ball and they couldn’t have drafted a player better than Allen. I criticized the Vikings in the off-season for not being more assertive with a division left for the taking when #4 retired. This was a good gamble. The Chiefs needed to rebuild and the 5th pick in the draft wasn’t going to do that on its own. This may end up going down as a win-win trade.
2) Did the Falcons make the right move in drafting potential franchise quarterback Matt Ryan? – While I liked Ryan, I don’t think he comes to the NFL with the optimism of a Peyton Manning or Carson Palmer. Taking a QB third in the draft is a huge investment and one a team can’t afford to get wrong.
Steve Young brought up an excellent point in analyzing this pick. If the Falcons didn’t add a franchise quarterback in this draft, the pressure would mount to give Vick a second chance once he is released from Federal prison if Harrington and Redman were the only quarterbacks on their roster.
This pick not only allows the Falcons to add a player they should be able to build around, but it probably ends that controversy. It is hard to see the Michael Vick story having any more chapters in Atlanta. It is important for the Falcons to put that behind them. They couldn’t afford to go into 2009 and 2010 with that cloud hanging over their head.
With Michael Turner signed as a free agent and Roddy White emerging as a promising receiver, the Falcons appear to be headed toward competitiveness by 2009 if they can continue to develop and add players. While there were other players that could help them more this year, if they don’t pick Ryan, I don’t think they would have reason to be as optimistic.
3) Did the Dolphins select the right Long? Absolutely. Parcells showed his brilliance in this pick and why I believe he will turn the Dolphins around sooner rather than later. Both players were safe picks. I thought they would be the first two picks in the draft. Had the Dolphins selected Chris Long first, they wouldn’t have needed to pick their second round pick, Phillip Merling. Furthermore, I don’t think there was an defensive tackle at that pick that had as much upside as Merling. There were 7 offensive tackles and a guard that will move to tackle in the first round. There were only 4 defensive ends taken in the draft, 3 of which went in the top 10.
By taking Long they were able to add two solid prospects to their offensive and defensive lines instead of one. If both players pan out it will be a monumental decision in the rebuilding of the Miami Dolphins.
4) Did the Ravens finally draft their franchise quarterback in Joe Flacco? – I’m not so sure. This could be an example of a team falling in love with the arm and combine and not looking at the overall product. The kid played at Delaware, which isn’t exactly major college competition. There are plenty of starting quarterbacks that have faired well from smaller schools. Favre played at Southern Mississippi. Tony Romo played at Eastern Illinois. The problem is that by selecting Flacco in the first round, the Ravens are going to have to pay a guy first round money whose resume is built playing at a small school. The Cowboys on the other hand got to see Romo develop and play well before they coughed up the farm to keep him. Drafting a Delaware QB in the first round is a big gamble in the NFL.
The Ravens did better than the Bears who didn’t even draft a quarterback or the Vikings who came away with an inferior prospect in John David Booty. While Flacco is an interesting prospect, he was hardly the 18th best player in this draft. I don’t know if they would have been that worse off selecting the best player and taking either Brohm or Henne in the second round. If Flacco becomes the Pro Bowl quarterback the Ravens have never had it was worth the gamble. If he doesn’t it will hurt the Ravens both in the salary cap ramifications and the talent department. At least they got several picks from the Jaguars to add other talent in the third round. Fabian Washington was an interesting trade adding depth at cornerback. If Flacco is a bust, they had a lot of picks on day 2 that may compensate for that.
5) What should be made of the Green Bay Packers selecting Brian Brohm in the 2nd round? – The Packers now have a full-blown quarterback controversy. Aaron Rodgers is going to get it from all ends now. He has a 38-year-old quarterback that keeps saying he would be tempted to comeback if he gets hurt. Now he has a rookie quarterback that put up big college numbers that will be looking to take his job if he doesn’t do well.
Regardless, the Packers did the smart thing. If Aaron Rodgers can’t live with Brohm being drafted in the 2nd round, he isn’t going to have the mental toughness to replace an NFL legend. The NFL is a pressure packed league, so Rodgers better get used to it sooner rather than later. Signing a washed up player (Culpepper) or a never was (Ferrotte) to make Rodgers feel better about himself was not the answer.
Brohm fills two needs. First, The Packers needed a backup quarterback and Brohm was the best option the Packers had available to them. From a GM’s perspective of putting together the best roster possible, it makes sense. Second, Aaron Rodgers has shown injury concerns as the backup for the most durable quarterback in NFL history. That is not a good sign.
The Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and are protecting themselves by taking a player with a lot of upside in case Rodgers doesn’t pan out. If Rodgers does work out, the Packers may very well be able to get a first round pick for Brohm if he shows well in preseason games. If Rodgers doesn’t work out they have another viable option for the future. The value was good and the pick made sense. Hopefully Rodgers will have the mental strength to not worry about things he can’t control and play good football in 2008.
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