The 2008 NFL draft is in the books and there are plenty of skeptics and critics afoot in this almost predictable draft, at least if you’re talking about the top 5 picks. I will evaluate the first 5 picks in relation to their immediate impact to the team and whether they should have drafted someone else in their stead. By Wayne Lin.
Miami Dolphins, Jake Long, OL: This was the proper choice. If the Dolphins are rebuilding the team needs a nucleus of players to build on. Jake Long gives the physical toughness to the line that the Dolphins need and can build on. Their O-Line isn’t getting younger and by adding Long it should give whoever the starting quarterback will be a better chance to make plays. One of the problems last season for the Dolphins was on average, the line gave the QB 2 seconds to make a decision. That isn’t going to win you games, as evident from their abysmal 1-15 record. Though Long wasn’t a sexy pick, fans need to understand that Offensive Linemen are pivotal in giving the running and passing game success. Without protection and blocks, neither will be successful. O-Line by far is the most underrated position. Expect Jake Long to make an immediate impact for the Dolphins.
St. Louis Rams, Chris Long, DE: This was not a good pick for the Rams. The defensive front held their own this past season and wasn’t the problem for the Rams losing. The Rams were terrible on offense until Stephen Jackson returned. I understand the need for a pass rusher, but the Rams have Adam Carriker, who spent the year alternating from NT to DE; Carriker showed flashes of brilliance. Couple that with Leonard Little and Eric Moore at the other DE spots then you have a mix of experience and promising youth to anchor the D-Line. Long will be a starter, but look for him to adjust to the game and not have an impact in his first year. The Rams were better off drafting an offensive lineman in the first round. Re-do pick: Jeff Otah, Pittsburgh.
Atlanta Falcons, Matt Ryan, QB: The Falcons got it right. One thing that stands out about Ryan is his ability to make plays. He played in a very tough conference with average talent on his team. If the Falcons are rebuilding and getting away from the Michael Vick days, Ryan is the right pick. He has emerging Wide Receivers in Roddy White and Michael Jenkins. They set him up to succeed quickly by drafting an offensive lineman in Sam Baker out of USC. Ryan will not turn the team around overnight and like the Dolphins it will take a year or two to develop their draft picks to make them a legitimate playoff contender. However, Ryan does have a bigger disadvantage than Jake Long has because Ryan doesn’t have a good, experienced quarterback to learn from. He will develop his own skill sets so look for him to have flashes of brilliance and some not-so flashes of brilliance.
Oakland Raiders, Darren McFadden, RB: This pick was an obvious one and the Raiders are looking to put up points. McFadden will compliment Justin Fargas very well. Surprisingly, the Raiders don’t have problems with their defense. Their consistent problems lie on offense and they selected the player that will give them just that. Obviously character concerns aren’t a problem for Al Davis, but when the dollar speaks, it doesn’t matter. What’s more about McFadden is he will be playing in Kiffin’s version of the West Coast offense which is slightly modified from the one of old. Kiffin is an offensive genius and he’ll be smart to utilize McFadden’s talents this season.
Kansas City Chiefs, Glen Dorsey, DT: Conventional wisdom says to draft the position in which you gave up just days before the draft, but the Chiefs didn’t do that. Glen Dorsey is good and he will stop runners in the gaps, but the loss of Jared Allen is too much. They need someone to take Allen’s spot at Defensive End. If you give Tomba Hali and say a Chris Long, that would form a very formidable duo in the pass rushing area of their defense. The Chiefs now have a shortage at Defensive End. Had they chosen a Defensive End first, they could have picked another DT in the likes of Kentwan Balmer, had he been available. Dorsey was the attractive pick and he wouldn’t have lasted much past pick 5, but give the Chiefs credit for jettisoning one of their star players for younger, less drama-filled players. This pick might pay off for them, but I still would have gone with Chris Long to avoid thinning out the Defensive Ends.
Historically, the top 5 picks are hit and miss, but will history repeat itself with this draft class? Certainly we shouldn’t crucify a player for not living up to expectations in his rookie year and certainly we can’t judge a player based on his team’s record. Time is our only guide but with these 5 players I don’t see them repeating history’s mistake. Give them two or three years to see their development. I’m not prophetic, but I see long lasting tenures for these five picks whether I thought the team picked the right player or not. You can contest me at the end of the season if you disagree. Until then enjoy the 2008 season.
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