Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

FA Winners & losers: Update!

By Derek Lofland. After the opening weekend of free agency I gave an opinion as to who my top five winners and losers were on the opening weekend.  I think that we have had enough activity in free agency to tally up some winners and losers from the entire Free Agency Period of the NFL offseason.  Assuming that nothing major happens between now and the NFL draft here are my 5 winners and 5 losers:

5 Winners:
1) Cleveland Browns – Normally I am not in favor of teams giving away their draft to acquire players through trades. I think the Browns made the best of a bad situation.  They didn’t have a first round pick this year thanks to their Brady Quinn trade of a year ago.  They weren’t going to dominate the draft in 2008.  What they did do is improve their team by giving free agent dollars and draft picks for guys that have not turned 30 years old.  Corey Williams will be 28-years old when the season starts. Shaun Rogers will be 29.  Stallworth will be 28 in November. While they probably overpaid for his services only $10 million of his $35 million contract was guaranteed. That is pretty good seeing Berrian received $16 million guaranteed from the Vikings. Derek Anderson is still young. Keeping him was huge in making sure they maintain a positive quarterback situation. Their signings should be relevant to the Browns’ organization for years to come.
The Browns have been building their team with high draft picks for a number of years. It was time to try to make a splash in free agency and try to pass the Steelers in the AFC North.  While they were aggressive they weren’t stupid about it like some other teams in the NFL that I will mention later. They addressed a lot of need positions with solid players. They did it by acquiring seasoned players but not players in the twilight of their career. The Browns were not that far away from the Steelers last season.  If these moves pan out, watch out for the Browns in the always intriguing AFC North.

2) New Orleans Saints – The Saints did a lot of nice things to open free agency. They acquired Jonathan Vilma for a conditional pick in the 2009 draft. While he was injured in 2007 he also had been struggling because he didn’t fit into the 3-4 scheme the Jets began playing when Herm Edwards left. If he can re-emerge as the same player that was the NFL Rookie of the Year in 2005 and Pro Bowl Alternate in 2006 the Saints got a steal. Bringing in Dan Morgan is a risk, but it was only for a one year deal.  If he can stay healthy he will contribute.  Randall Gay was a nice signing for 17.6 million over 4 years. While he is not the gigantic signing that Asante Samuel was he should upgrade the pathetic Saints secondary. They signed Rodney McCray who will be 27-years old this year and should help their defensive line. They were able to retain Deverey Henderson, which will help their offense. They were also able to retain LB Mark Simoneau and DT Brian Young which bolster their defense.
I think the Saints did a lot better by signing players that will fit into their system than they did in 2007. The Saints went a long way to improving their defense which gave up too many big plays last season.  Considering they have the 10th pick in the draft they have a lot of flexibility to add another immediate impact player and improve this team that was only a year removed from the NFC Title Game.

3) Tennessee Titans – I like how this team has built on their run to the wildcard last season.  They signed guard Jake Scott away from the Colts which helps them and hurts a division rival.  The money was reasonable at 4 years for $5.0 million per year.  They signed Alge Crumpler after he was released by the Falcons.  He should help considerably if he can stay healthy by giving Young a go-to target in the red zone and third down.  They were able to bring Jevon Kearse back to the Titans.  He is a former Titan that should help if his health holds up.  They also acquired WR Justin McCareins from the Jets. 
These aren’t players that will send shivers down opposing fan’s spines, but they are solid players that will help the Titans win football games in 2008.  This is a team that sat out of the opening week of free agency, but was able to add solid veterans at salary friendly contracts.  The biggest key for them going forward is to have a solid draft and resolve the contract dispute with Albert Haynesworth.  He is essential to their defense.  While there were other teams that broke the bank the Titans added good talent, but stayed smart.  I think that conservative approach will pay off.

4)  Philadelphia Eagles – The Eagles demonstrated why year in and year out they are among the best franchises in the NFL under the Andy Reid era.  They were able to eliminate some older players from their roster in Spikes and Kearse and signed the most coveted free agent on the market in Samuel.  While Samuel did play in a 3-4 and will be switching to a 4-3, both teams are aggressive when it comes to blitzing. He will be asked to do the same things he did in New England. Then instead of canceling out a good signing by overpaying someone they stayed put and are going to use the draft to continue to improve their roster.  The temptation could have been to throw a lot of money at Berrian or another underachieving wide receiver in a useless attempt to upgrade the offense. The Eagles have now significantly improved their defense and can concentrate their high picks in the draft to improve the skill positions on offense. I think the Eagles started the free agency season out with a bang and built on that by maintaining a conservative approach.

5) Atlanta Falcons – Very similar to what the Eagles did.  They made their big splash by signing Michael “the Burner” Turner to a large deal.  He should give them a nice weapon rushing the ball and is a much better compliment to the skill set of Norwood than Dunn was.  Then they do a bunch of smaller moves.  They resigned Harrington and Redman to contracts.  This gives them the flexibility to either draft Ryan or go in a different direction later in the draft.  Both are decent stop gap guys when developing a franchise quarterback.  They signed Jason Elam which upgrades the kicking game. They get a second round pick for Hall and rid themselves of a locker room problem.  They rid themselves of a big salary by releasing Crumpler.  All of these moves will allow them to continue to rebuild a franchise that was devastated by the conviction of Michael Vick.  While I don’t think the Falcons will compete for the playoffs next season, I do think they are on the road to recovery.  Instead of trying to throw money at their problems and make it worse they seem to have a solid plan going forward.

5  Losers:
1) Green Bay Packers – I actually had the Packers on the winner side after the opening weekend for getting a 2nd round pick from Cleveland for a player in Corey Williams that they had absolutely no intention of keeping.  What a difference a couple of days made.  On March 4, 2008 the Packer fortunes changed forever when future Hall of Famer and all time great NFL quarterback Brett Favre announced his retirement from the NFL.  Franchise Quarterbacks are extremely tough to replace.  Hall of Fame players that have been the face of the franchise for over 15 years are next to impossible.  While life will go on for the Packers, this loss will hurt significantly, especially in the 2008 season.
The Packers have a promising backup in Aaron Rodgers.  For all the people that think he is the answer because of a good showing in the Dallas game I encourage you to research the career of Buffalo Bills quarterback Rob Johnson, who was given franchise dollars based on one game as the Jaguars backup.  The Dallas game is zero indication of the starting quarterback Rodgers will become.  The encouraging thing is that Rodgers does appear to have made strides since his first training camp in Green Bay.  The bad news is that he has had injury problems as the backup.  He broke his ankle in 2006 missing the second half of the season.  Last year he pulled his hamstring in practice and was inactive for the end of the regular season.  If the Packers are going to be contender in 2008 they can’t replace the Iron Man with the China Doll.  Rodgers must stay healthy as the options behind him are bleak. 
The Packers have no way of replacing a player of Brett Favre’s talents in the draft or free agency for next season and even though they have a young and promising team, quarterback is the most important position on the team.  Losing a Hall of Fame Quarterback is huge and makes them the biggest loser of the 2008 offseason.

2) New York Jets – The Jets have been experts at getting old and average talent for millions this offseason.  The Jets signed OG Alan Faneca to a five year $40 million dollar deal.  OT Damien Woody to a 5 year $25.5 million dollar deal.  Bubba Franks was signed to a 1 year $1.65 million dollar contract for being an injury case in Green Bay.  Tony Richardson who is an aging injured player was signed away from the Vikings.  On defense they signed ex-Cardinals OLB Calvin Pace to a six year, $42 million contract.  They traded a third and fifth round pick for ex-Panthers DT Kris Jenkins and proceeded to sign him to a 5 year $35.0 million dollar contract.  Then to top everything off they guaranteed the last $11.0 million of Cole’s salary. 
Ladies and Gentleman, I introduce to you the new and recently relocated Washington Redskins.  The only player that I would have been happy with my favorite team signing was Faneca.  Pace is a good player, but not worth the investment the Jets paid him.  Everyone else I see as either consistently injured, consistently old, or consistently underachieving.  In some cases it is all three.  The fact that they mortgaged their salary cap future to overpay average to below average talent speaks volumes that this team is not headed toward contention anytime soon.

3) Oakland Raiders – Another team that just doesn’t get it. I like what they did a little better than the Jets, because I think Hall has the ability to be a shut down corner and Gibril Wilson has the potential to be a Pro Bowl safety.  At least they signed some younger players than the Jets.  Still, this free agent grab produced some embarrassing signings.  Tommy Kelly is coming off reconstructive knee surgery. That didn’t stop the Raiders from giving him $50 million that guarantees Kelly more than $18 million. He was on the team last year that was last in the league in rushing yards per attempt and 31st in rushing yards allowed. I wouldn’t have signed him to that had he been healthy last season. He is definitely not worthy of being the NFL’s highest paid defensive tackle. They allowed a healthy Joey Porter to walk and did not give him the $35 million the Jaguars spent on him. Then they signed Javon Walker who has had knee issues the last few seasons to a 6 year $55.0 million dollar deal.  That one boggles my mind.  He is just too injured to warrant that big of a payout.
The Commitment to Excellence became the Commitment to Overspending in 2008.  When you combine that with the uncertainty surrounding Lane Kiffin you have the potential for a very entertaining soap opera for those outside the Raiders Nation.

4) New England Patriots – Other than 2007 the Patriots are consistently on this side of the report, yet continue to compete for division titles. However, the Patriots have suffered a lot of losses this offseason.  Samuel was signed by the Eagles, Eugene Wilson was signed by the Buccaneers, and Gay was signed by the Saints.  Harrison was probably a player they needed to replace in their secondary and he is coming back.  They were able to resign Bruschi, but had to release Colvin. They have suffered a lot of losses on defense. They have failed to get any younger at linebacker and have had their secondary destroyed.  While they did address those losses by signing Fernando Bryant, Tank Williams, and Lewis Sanders that does not replace what they lost.  While the 7th pick can address a major area of need it can’t rebuild an entire secondary and linebacker core.
Then you have to look at the offense.  Keeping Randy Moss was huge.  Had they not the Patriots would have been my number one loser of the offseason, even with the Favre retirement.  Stallworth was signed by the Browns. While his numbers suggest it is a manageable loss it hurts in the fact that a safety had to respect his speed.  The Patriots are the best in the league at allowing players to walk that they don’t believe are worth the money they are asking for.  I think their approach is sounder than the Jets and Raiders.  I still think they paid a hefty price this offseason.

5) Minnesota Vikings – I didn’t like the Vikings’ offseason beginning with the overpayment of Berrian.  The six-year deal that Berrian signed is worth $43.4 million with $16 million in guaranteed money.  That translates in $ 7.3 millions per season, $ 1 million less than a star named Terrell Owens.  The latter had 1.355 receiving yards in 2007 at age 34! Is he underpaid compared to Berrian? This is a guy that had 71 receptions for 951 yards and 5 touchdowns playing with shaky QB play. Even if he had a good quarterback, I don’t see him as an elite player.  He drops the ball too much for the production he gives.  Furthermore, the Vikings don’t have a quarterback that will be able to take advantage of his speed with downfield strikes. Then the Vikings went and signed safety Madieu Williams to a $33 million deal, including slightly less than $13 million in guaranteed money. He had 2 interceptions last season and has 9 in his 4-year career for a Cincinnati team that can’t stop anyone either.  I think it is safe to say they could have found a cheaper alternative in the draft.
The Vikings did better than the NY Jets and Oakland by not completely surrendering their future.  They only overpaid for two players, not 5 or 6.  They didn’t lose the Hall of Famer the Packers did or the multiple talented players the Patriots lost.  Entering the offseason the Vikings needed to upgrade their passing offense, and upgrade their passing defense.
Here is my issue.  They received a huge break by having their division rival’s Hall of Fame QB retire.  The Bears are rebuilding their offense and their defense was down last season.  The Lions have been rebuilding since Barry Sanders retired.  The Vikings have arguably the best weapon in the division with Peterson and the division is theirs for the taking.  Yet entering the draft you have the exact same question marks you had about the team last season.
The fact is that by the start of next season the Vikings offensive line will be in its prime years.  Birk will be 32, Hutchinson will be 31 in November, and McKinnie will be 29 in September.  The Vikings have one of the most promising weapons in the NFL in Adrian Peterson.  The time is now to try to shoot to the top of the NFC North.  I think they needed to have the mentality that the Cleveland Browns had this offseason, and I just didn’t see it.  I haven’t seen them do the things they need to do to take control of division that is theirs to control.  Even though Peterson will be better in year 2, a bad pass defense and lack of a passing game will produce another 8-8 season.