NFL mock draft: Who goes where?

April 03, 2008
Author: Antonino Buccellato

Rating: 5.5 out of 10
Total votes: 2

Now that the NFL Combine has concluded, it is time to start looking at where these players are going to go. I’m not going to tell you that I was at the combine or have interviewed Bill Parcells to get a read on who the Dolphins will take with their number one pick. I am not Mel Kiper Jr and have access to the front office of every NFL team at the touch of my cell phone.

I mainly follow college football so I know which players the pros are going to draft in the spring. I definitely don’t follow it for that sorry excuse of a postseason known as the BCS Championship Series. I’ve been reading a lot of different mock drafts and combine reports. Furthermore as the NFL Senior Writer for the Fantasy Football Maniaxs, I know a thing or two about what these teams need. Considering what I believe are these teams major needs and what I have been reading from respected experts in the field this is how I foresee the NFL draft going in April.

No. Team           W-L   Win Percentage   

1  Miami Dolphins 1-15 .063

Prediction: Chris Long DE – Virginia: If I were Parcells I would draft McFadden. I keep hearing people say this would be a stupid pick, because the Dolphins are set at running back. The Miami Dolphins were 1-15 last season. Ronnie Brown tore his ACL in his right knee. He has been an average back, at best, his first 3 years in the NFL. His best season is 1,008 yards and 5 rushing touchdowns in 2006. In 2007 he was on pace to rush for 1,376 yards and 9 rushing touchdowns. That would be a good season, but hardly numbers that would indicate an upgrade would be out of the question. There is no guarantee Brown will ever be the same player. This team ranked 26th in points scored and 28th in yards gained. They need a playmaker they can build the offense around, someone defensive coordinators stay up at night having nightmares about, and figure out what to do with too many good players later. However, they were pretty bad on the defensive line and the scouts are very high on what Chris Long brings to the table. He has the potential to be a premium pass rusher for a decade. Running backs have a tendency to be over the hill before they turn 30. I think the Dolphins will either trade out of the pick or will go with their top player on the board, which would seem to be Chris Long at this point.

2 St. Louis Rams   3-13 .188

Prediction: Jake Long OT - Michigan: This team was decimated on the offensive line last season. Orlando Pace was injured for the season in Game 1 last season. They can’t go into 2008 old and injured at offensive line. If you are going to have a quarterback like Bulger and playmakers like Jackson and Holt you need offensive lineman that will allow you to maximize their potential. Even if Pace does come back they can move one of these tackles to the other side. Taking an offensive tackle that should be a Pro Bowler for the next 10 seasons is never a bad thing for your football team.

3 Atlanta Falcons 4-12 .250   

Prediction: Matt Ryan QB - Boston College: I’ve seen a lot of people dropping him to the Ravens at the 8th spot. The Falcons cannot go into 2008 with Harrington and Redman as their 2 quarterbacks. The franchise was decimated when their Pro Bowl QB and face of the franchise, Michael Vick was incarcerated for illegal dog fighting charges. They need to find a quarterback that can lead the franchise going forward. Ryan did a very nice job with average talent at the skill positions around him and played in a good system at Boston College. He is the best QB in the draft.  While quarterbacks rarely step into the starter role their first year and contribute he should be able to assume the starting job by 2009. The Falcons might be able to trade out of this spot if someone wants to come up to draft McFadden. If they stay put I expect them to draft Ryan.

4 Oakland Raiders    4-12 .250
 
Prediction: Vernon Gholston DE - Ohio State: Conventional wisdom says take a defensive tackle at this spot considering the Raiders were 28th in rushing attempts allowed, 31st in rush yards allowed, and 32nd in yards per attempt. However, this guy is rising up the boards so fast that the Raiders would be well served to take this speed rusher and improve the exterior of their defensive line. The Giants proved this season that you can never have too many pass rushers and the Raiders would be wise to add this talent with enormous potential to their stable. At 4-12 they cannot afford to pass on someone like this, especially with so many questions surrounding Dorsey and Ellis.

5 Kansas City Chiefs    4-12   .250   

Prediction: Ryan Clady OT - Boise St: This is a guy that has skyrocketed in the draft rankings over the last few weeks. While there may be better players on the board it is a need pick similar to what the Cardinals did in the draft last year. The Chiefs front office did a horrible job of having young replacements in the wings when their line was the best in football just 2 or 3 years ago. They need to come away with something on the offensive line to offset the retirements of Roaf and Shields. Furthermore, they are probably going to have a hard time trading down from the 5th spot. It makes no sense to pay Larry Johnson all that money if he isn’t going to have lanes to run through. While McFadden is the sexy pick, what good does it do to have two great backs with no one to block for them. Clady is a high first round prospect that blocked for an excellent running team at Boise St. I think the Chiefs should make the reach and attempt to shore up the position.

6 New York Jets     4-12    .250   

Prediction: Darren McFadden – Arkansas: The Jets are another team that has a lot of areas to address. While they signed Thomas Jones to a big contract last season, he only had one rushing touchdown. They have to get someone scarier than Coles on offense. They need a difference maker. Plus do they want to risk having the Patriots draft him? If a team doesn’t move up to grab McFadden before the Jets select they won’t let him fall any lower and risk playing against him twice a season as a Patriot.

7 NE Patriots (via 49ers)    17-0  .1000

Prediction: Mike Jenkins CB – South Florida: Everyone is talking linebacker at this spot. While I do not deny the Patriots need a linebacker I don’t see one that makes sense for the value. The Patriots could trade down here and try to get Rivers from USC and some additional picks. Otherwise the Patriots lost Samuel and Gay to free agency. They have a chance to add a cornerback that is worthy of the selection. That is what I think the Patriots will do in this spot.

8 Baltimore Ravens 5-11 .313   

Prediction: Leodis McKelvin CB – Troy St: This small school sensation has been shooting up draft boards.  The Ravens have a strong group of corners, but both are over 30-years old. They have a definite need to get younger at this position. Many people feel they need to draft a quarterback, but there really isn’t anyone at that point in the draft that makes sense.  Brohm is too much of a reach at pick 8. Addressing their cornerback needs would make more sense.

9 Cincinnati Bengals 7-9    .438   

Prediction: Glenn Dorsey DT – LSU: This team is horrible on the defensive side of the ball. They need to get bigger in the middle. Cincinnati was 24th in points allowed and 27th in yards. They were 26th in passing yards allowed and 21st in rush yards allowed. This pick just makes sense. Dorsey was a player that was talked about as the top pick in the draft until questions started to surface about his injured leg. He would be the best available talent at this point.  Cincy would potentially be able to sure up the middle of their defense. While one player won’t fix the entire defensive problem he goes a long way.

10 New Orleans Saints 7-9 .438   

Prediction: Sedrick Ellis DT – USC: A lot of people have the Saints taking a cornerback. That is a definite possibility. However, the Saints could afford to improve the middle of their defensive line as they ranked only 13th in the league. Signing Vilma and drafting Ellis would help improve the middle of this defense and open up the defensive ends to make some more plays in the sack department. Ellis is a player many people thought would jump into the top 5 of the draft. The Saints would be well advised to take the value rather than the need.

11 Buffalo Bills   7-9 .438   

Prediction: Derrick Harvey DE - Florida: The Bills need to upgrade in a lot of areas. They were 30th in both yards gained and yards allowed. They need to take the best available player and by most accounts people expect Harvey to develop into a solid pro. He compares favorably with his teammate Moss who was selected in the first round last year. One of their top concerns has to be putting pressure on the quarterback. This pick makes a lot of sense for helping the Bills improve in that area, especially when you consider that they acquired Marcus Stroud from the Jags this offseason. The Bills would suddenly have a formidable front 4 heading into next year to try to put pressure on Tom Brady, something that is a must if they want to catch the Patriots.

12 Denver Broncos 7-9  .438   

Prediction: Chris Williams OT – Vanderbilt: The Broncos started to show some age on their offensive line and Williams would be a nice addition. They could easily go defensive line or linebacker at this spot as well, but I think Williams makes the most sense. It not only opens up possibilities for Henry and Young, but gives Cutler additional protection in the passing game as the Broncos hope that he has a breakout year in his third season.

13 Carolina Panthers 7-9  .438

Prediction: DeSean Jackson WR - California: Muhammad is a nice signing that may help in 2008. He is a possession receiver at best. Jarrett is not a burner. D.J.  Hackett gives them some more size and upgrades the receiving position. Carolina needs playmakers. Steve Smith is the only weapon they have on offense that scares anyone. Jackson is a burner that brings pure speed to the slot receiver spot and can return kicks.  Receivers usually take 3 years to develop so Muhammad is a nice stop gap while waiting for Jarrett and Jackson to develop. Jackson is a bit on the small side. While the Panthers need a running back as well they can afford to go with Williams and draft another compliment in the second to fourth round. They spent a high pick on Jarrett last season, but would still be wise to add this explosive weapon to their passing game. While Malcolm Kelly and Limus Sweed grade higher on people’s draft board they are the same type of player as Jarrett. Even if Jackson is only a 4th receiver in his rookie year the Panthers should see immediate dividends in the return game. Look what that did for the Chicago Bears when they drafted Hester.

14 Chicago Bears  7-9 .438   

Prediction: Jeff Otah T - Pittsburgh: I had the Bears taking Jonathan Stewart with this pick until it was announced that he was going to require surgery that could force him to miss training camp. The Bears can’t afford that problem. They also need to upgrade their offensive line as they became too old at tackle last season. Otah is a giant at 6-6 and 339 lbs. The Bears need to add some beef to their offensive line to help in the running game and this top prospect will go a long way to giving their playmakers time to make plays both in the passing and running game.

15 Detroit Lions 7-9 .438   

Prediction: Rashard Mendenhall RB – Illinois: Kevin Jones has been released and T.J. Duckett has signed with Seattle. I can’t imagine the Lions will want to go into camp with only Tatum Bell at their running back spot. A running back makes sense here as the Lions were horrible running the ball last year, in part due to their deficient offensive line and in part to their play caller, Martz, who is no longer with the team.  Mendenhall gives them the talent to commit to the run.

16 Arizona Cardinals 8-8 .500   

Prediction: Felix Jones RB - Arkansas: The Cardinals need to groom a potential replacement for Edge James and need to find a way to get more production in the receiving game from their backs. Jones is used to splitting time with McFadden at Arkansas and gives the Cardinals pure speed at the running back position. Again this is a team that could use a lot of upgrades, but I believe that Jones would fit very well into the Cardinals talented offensive system full of offensive difference makers.

17 Minnesota Vikings 8-8    .500   

Prediction: Keith Rivers OLB-USC: A lot of people had the Vikings taking a Wide Receiver here until Berrian signed with the Vikings at the start of free agency. Their defense was a major liability against the pass last season. Rivers would allow them to have better coverage against the tight end and be able to apply more pass rush on the quarterback. While Ben Leber is a good linebacker he is hardly irreplaceable. I don’t see a receiver in the first round at this point that will make a big enough impact to justify the selection given the Vikings signing of Berrian.

18 Houston Texans 8-8 .500   

Prediction: Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB – Tennessee St: Running back would also make sense, but again, I don’t know if they will draft Stewart this high knowing he may be injured for training camp.  Houston has a very nice young nucleus on defense.  They addressed the front four each of the last 2 years in the first round. This would be a good pick to shore up the secondary and give a talented corner opposite Robinson. The Texans have a number of different directions they need to address and this is the best available player at a need position. Chris Williams would also make sense at the tackle spot if the Broncos don’t take him, but I think the temptation to add this defensive playmaker will be too much to pass up.

19 Philadelphia Eagles 8-8    .500   

Prediction: Malcolm Kelly – Oklahoma: Kevin Curtis and Reggie Brown are nice players, but neither is an elite weapon. The Eagles have some other needs, but their priority has to be upgrading the receiver position. Kelly is 6’4” and has great size. He would be an excellent weapon to help either a young QB learning a new system (Kolb) or a veteran QB (McNabb) who has been starving for weapons ever since T.O. did the Texas two-step down to Dallas.

20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers    9-7 .563   

Prediction: Aqib Talib CB - Kansas: Brian Kelly has leftvia free agency and Barber is not exactly getting any younger. While the Bucs would also like to address needs on the offensive side of the football I look for Gruden to go with a player that could pay instant dividends for a still elite but aging defense.

21 Washington Redskins 9-7 .563   

Prediction: Limas Sweed WR - Texas: The Redskins lacked big play ability at wide receiver and were hoping to acquire Chad Johnson. Now that Gibbs has left I look for the Skins to go back to having bigger receivers in the lineup. It doesn’t get much bigger than the 6’4” 200 lbs-plus Sweed. I can’t make up my mind whether the Eagles would take Sweed or Kelly.  The one they don’t take is who I expect the Redskins to take. Either would be a welcomed target for Campbell in the endzone.

22 Dallas Cowboys (via Browns) 13-3 .625

Prediction: Mario Manningham WR – Michigan: He has been dropping a little bit on most people’s boards, so I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cowboys went in another direction. Glenn is going to be 34 this year and Owens turns 35 in January. While Crayton showed he can play in this league they need to get more targets into the fold for Romo. While Manningham hurt his stock with a poor showing at the combine he is an extremely talented wideout that will benefit from having solid veterans to learn from and should excel with a lot of offensive talent surrounding him. The Cowboys haven’t exactly shied away from character questions and have even been inquiring about the availability of Pacman. I think the Cowboys will end up taking him, unless they package these picks to move up into the top of the first round to grab McFadden.

23. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 .625   

Prediction: Calais Campbell DE - Miami (Fla.): The Steelers need some help on the defensive line. While they did great in the yardage and points allowed department they didn’t generate enough turnovers or force enough sacks. Campbell is a player that should improve their pass rush immediately. While guard is going to be a priority as well, I don’t think there isn’t anyone good enough to warrant this high of a selection other than Brandon Albert of Virginia. The Steelers could decide to go that route as well.

24. Tennessee Titans   10-6    .625   

Prediction: Kenny Phillips S - Miami: The Titans would love to add a receiver, but I don’t see the value pick here. Davis would be interesting, but the Titans have a number of young tight ends. I look for them to  upgrade their secondary. They need to upgrade the safety spot and Phillips has the potential to be an All-Pro although his stock has been slipping as of late. He will improve their tackling and run support while also solidifying coverage in the middle of the field. I would go this route.

25 Seattle Seahawks 10-6    .625   

Prediction: Fred Davis TE - USC: The Seahawks need to get younger at running back as well. Jonathan Stewart would be very tempting here. However, they already signed Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett, so I don’t know if running back is a first round priority. They have the depth at running back to be okay if he is not ready to start the season. However, there are plenty of good young running backs that will be available in the second and third rounds. Davis is the best tight end in the draft. The Seahawks were horrible at tight end last year. This is getting good value with the first round pick while being able to address other needs later on.

26 Jacksonville Jaguars 10-6 .625

Prediction: Kentwan Balmer DT– North Carolina – The Jaguars lost Bobby McCray to the New Orleans Saints in free agency and Marcus Stroud to the Bills in a trade.  They upgraded their wide receiver position with the signing of Porter and Williamson. I look for them to start rebuilding the defensive line and giving Henderson a young promising DT would help in that regard.

27 San Diego Chargers 11-5 .688

Prediction: Brandon Albert OG – Virginia: The Chargers aren’t getting any younger at the guard spot. While Dielman is only 27, Goff turned 32 in January.  Despite LT leading the league in rushing, the Chargers had some issues running the ball in 2008, especially in the first half of the season. This is a chance to upgrade their depth and groom an eventual replacement in the middle of the offensive line.

28 Dallas Cowboys 13-3 .813   

Prediction: Reggie Smith CB –Oklahoma – This pick helps the Cowboys address their pass defense issues. He played both corner and safety at OU. They can use him in nickel packages as well as sub him in for Roy Williams in obvious passing situations. He gives them a lot of flexibility in the secondary, something they sorely lacked in 2007. They could also go look for a running back, but with so many available they would be better served to address that need in later rounds.

29 San Fran 49ers (via Indy) 5-11 .313   

Prediction: Quentin Groves DE – Auburn – The 49ers need players that can play both linebacker and defensive end in their 3-4 scheme. This is a guy that had a great combine and would be able to fit the bill there. The 49ers could go wide receiver, offensive line or just about any offensive spot other than running back and tight end. This pick seems to be the best value at the 29th spot.

30 Green Bay Packers 13-3 .813   

Prediction: Jonathan Stewart RB – Oregon: This is a great value pick. The Packers have Ryan Grant, but Brandon Jackson has not shown that he would be a viable starter should Grant be hurt or ineffective. The Packers can’t pin their hopes on Grant being a future Hall of Famer because he played well for 9 games. Thompson has shown that he will take injured players in the draft if the value is right. If Stewart was not able to be ready either in training camp or this year the Packers would not be devastated.  I think the value is right here for the Packers to add a very talented, but injured player who may not be able to contribute right away.

31 New York Giants 10-6 .625   

Prediction: Dan Connor OLB - Penn State: This is a great college player to address an area of need from a college program rich in linebacker tradition. One area the Giants struggled in last season was outside linebackers covering the tight end spot and stopping the run. This was especially true at the beginning of the season. While I am not sure Dan Connor is a future Hall of Fame player I do think he will be a productive player that will fit well into the Giants’ current system. He will be an excellent upgrade to their linebacker core.

32. New England (forfeited pick) 17    0    1.000

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