Fantasy : Free agency: Buyer beware! : Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

By Derek Lofland. With the NFL being on the eve of the free agency signing period, fans are gearing up for a quick fix. I thought I would explore the history of the free agency period and see what makes the top teams the top teams.
One of the things that NFL fans are consistently guilty of is hoping that their team makes a big splash in free agency or in the first round of the NFL draft and fix its woes overnight. Now that the 2007 season has ended, fans begin the countdown for when free agency officially begins. There are some big names to be had this year, most notably: Assante Samuel, Randy Moss, Alan Faneca, Lance Briggs, and Corey Williams.

Furthermore with Zach Thomas, Alge Crumpler, and other cap casualties being released there is a chance for teams to make quite a splash in free agency. Dallas has already done that by signing Zach Thomas. But is that a good idea? Is it better to have a Daniel Snyder or Jerry Jones' mentality and buy the best players that money can buy, or is it better to have a more conservative approach like Ted Thompson and stay clear of the dangerous waters of free agency? I am a firm believer that the best way to improve your team is to invest a lot of money in your scouting department and draft as many good players as you can. The NFL draft is the most important part of building an NFL team. Draft picks are to be treated like gold, even the 7th round ones. While many people tune out after the first round there is a lot of talent to be had later in the draft. The post draft is also essential when the unsigned free agent rookie class is signed. I know people get sick of hearing that every year and would rather concentrate on the big names that create dreams of instant Super Bowls. But it really is true.
To demonstrate that notion, I decided to 'Mock" a starting team that consisted of 2 backs and 2 receivers that plays a 3-4 defense. This list is some notable players selected after the 45th pick, or basically about halfway through the second round that played on an NFL roster in 2007. This is not the best list of players selected after the 45th pick. I tried to give deference to players that were selected in the lower rounds or were undrafted to demonstrate the value that is available in that part of the draft.

NFL Active Pro Bowl Roster 45th Pick or Lower

Offense

QB – Tom Brady (Michigan University, 2000 6th Round, Pick 199)

RB – Brian Westbrook (Villanova University, 2002 3rd Round, Pick 91)

RB – Willie Parker (Undrafted)

WR – Donald Driver (Alcorn State, 1999 7th Round, Pick 213)

WR - T. J. Houshmandzadeh (Oregon St, 2001 7th Round, Pick 204)

TE – Antonio Gates (Undrafted 2003)

OT – Marcus McNeil (Auburn University, 2006 2nd Round, 50th Pick)

OT - Matt Light (Purdue University, 2001 2nd Round, 48th Pick)

G – Brian Waters (Undrafted)

G – Larry Allen (Sonoma State, 1994 2nd Round, 46th Pick)

C - Matt Birk (Harvard, 1998, 6th Round, 173rd Pick)

K - Adam Vinatieri (Undrafted)

KR / PR – Devin Hester (Miami FL University, 2006 2nd Round, 57th Pick)

Defense

DE – Aaron Kampman (Iowa University, 5th Round, 156th Pick)

DE - Jared Allen (Idaho St, 2004 4th Round, 126th Pick)

DT – Shaun Rodgers (Texas, 2001 2nd Round, 61st Pick)

OLB – Adalius Thomas (Southern Mississippi, 2000 6th Round, 186th Pick)

OLB – Joey Porter (Colorado St, 1999 3rd Round, 73rd Pick)

ILB – Zach Thomas (Texas Tech, 1996 5th Round, 154th Pick)

ILB - Lofa Tatupu (USC, 2005 2nd Round, 45th Pick)

CB – Al Harris (Texas A&M-Kingsville, 1998 6th Round, 169th Pick)

CB – Asante Samuel (Central Florida, 2003 4th Round, 120th Pick)

S – Rodney Harrison (Western Illinois, 5th Round, 145th Pick)

S - Antoine Bethea (Howard University, 6th Round, 207th Pick)

P – Shayne Lechler (Texas A & M, 2000 5th Round, 142nd Pick)

I think it is pretty easy to see that while there are a lot of sexy names in the top 10 picks, that teams who do their homework are nicely rewarded for having done so. While you could put together a pretty impressive roster of top 10 picks over the last 15 years, this team would definitely hold its own against that team. It has been 15 years since the league implemented their current free agency system to start the 1993 season. I decided to look at who have been the most successful teams in the NFL since 1993 in terms of W-L record. These are the seven (7) franchises that stood out:

Green Bay Packers: 152 wins – 88 Losses; 1 Super Bowl Trophy

New England Patriots: 150 wins – 90 Losses; 3 Super Bowl Trophies

Pittsburgh Steelers: 148 wins – 91 Losses – 1 Tie; 1 Super Bowl Trophy

Denver Broncos: 146 wins – 94 Losses – 2 Super Bowl Trophies

Indianapolis Colts: 138 wins – 102 Losses – 1 Super Bowl Trophy

Philadelphia Eagles: 132 wins – 107 Losses – 1 Super Bowl appearance

Dallas Cowboys: 132 wins – 108 Losses – 2 Super Bowl Trophies

These 7 teams account for 10 of the 15 Lombardi Trophies won in the Free Agency Era. With the exception of the Eagles and Colts the others have appeared in multiple Super Bowls. They have combined to make 29 Conference Championship appearances. They have had the most regular season success combining to win 59.5 % of their games or an average of 9.5 per season. So what do these teams do differently than the other franchises? Why have they been so successful year after year where other teams search for the formula year after year to no avail?

Coaching / Front Office Consistency: These teams for the most part have not been changing head coaches every couple of seasons. New England has had two Hall of Fame Coaches for 11 of those 15 years in "Red Riding Hood" and "The Tuna". The Colts have had Dungy and Mora for 10 of those 15 seasons. Pittsburgh had "The Chin" for 14 of the 15 seasons. Shanahan has been with Denver since 1998. Reid has been in Philly since 1999. Holmgren and Sherman combined for 12 of the 15 seasons in Green Bay. The only team that had a lot of turnover in the Head Coaching Department was the Dallas Cowboys who have had Johnson, Switzer, Gailey, Campo, Parcells, and Phillips with none of them coaching for more than 4 years. However, Jerry Jones has been their constant all 15 years of the free agency period, which is important because he is for all intensive purposes the GM for the Cowboys. Ron Wolf, Bob Kraft, Dan Rooney, Pat Bowlin, Bill Polian, and Jeffrey Lurie have all been the faces of the ownership or front office for the majority of that time. Having consistency in your head coaching, front office, and ownership is imperative for continued success.

Drafted or Developed Hall of Fame QB: Quarterback is the most important position on the team. Therefore, I don’t think it is any coincidence that some of the best signal callers in the NFL have played on these teams during this span. Favre has played all 15 years in the free agency era for the Packers. He hasn’t missed a single game. Manning has been with the Colts every game since 1998. Bledsoe and Brady have been the signal callers in New England throughout this streak. Denver had Elway for their most successful years in the run. Philly has had McNabb since 1999. Aikman had the most wins in the 90s all of which were for the Cowboys. The only team that hasn’t had a consistent signal caller during the streak is the Steelers. However, they have had a top-10 scoring defense 11 of the 15 years of the Free Agency Period. The one thing all these teams have in common is they drafted their QBs or developed them. Aikman, Big Ben, Bledsoe, Brady, Elway, and McNabb were all drafted by the teams they would eventually start for. Favre played one year in Atlanta before being traded to the Packers and developed by Holmgren. It is key that if you want to be a successful franchise that you draft your signal caller and develop him. Rarely is the answer to the quarterbacking dilemma going to be found by signing a big name in free agency.

Great Late Round Draft Picks: All these teams are great at finding talent in the draft where other teams are consistently sleeping on the job. Take Indianapolis for example. They drafted their entire powerful offense. The Colts drafted Manning, Harrison, Addai, Gonzalez, Wayne, and Clark in the first round. They didn’t buy Manning’s offense in free agency. They also have many key contributors not found in the first round. Sanders and Bethea were both selected to the Pro Bowl and neither was a first round pick. Ted Thompson took the Packers from 4-12 to 13-3 in just two seasons by rebuilding the team through the draft. He got rid of older players like Rivera, Wahle, Sharper, Longwell, and Green. He replaced them with Hawk, Jennings, Jones, and Crosby, Collins, and Bigsby. All were all selected in the draft the last couple of seasons or signed as undrafted free agents. His biggest trade was for Ryan Grant to start the season for a 6th round pick. The Patriots are great at selecting low round players. They refuse to overpay for over the hill talent. Lawyer Milloy, Willie McGinest, Deion Branch, Adam Vinatieri, and Ty Law were all let go in favor of younger or less expensive players. The Broncos are notorious for finding running backs late in the draft, most notably 6th round pick Terrell Davis. The Eagles found their best offensive weapon in Westbrook at the end of the 3rd round. Dallas built their dynasty on the Walker trade in 1989 and the draft picks that came with that. Aikman, Irvin, Smith, Allen, Williams, and the majority of their roster were the result of solid drafts in April.

Conservative Free Agency / Trades: All of the above teams have signed some impact free agents at some point. The Packers signed the biggest of them all in Reggie White. Thompson spent a great deal of money to bring in Charles Woodson. The Patriots upgraded their offense by trading a 4th round pick for Randy Moss. They also signed Thomas to a huge deal. The Eagles traded for T.O. and signed Kearse to big deal in an attempt to win a ring. Denver traded Clinton Portis to the Redskins to bring in Bailey and sent Tatum Bell to Detroit for Dre' Bly. A number of their defensive players were acquired in trades or free agency on their two Super Bowl teams. However, other than Dallas you rarely see these teams top the list in terms of free agency dollars spent. Most of the teams try to sign one or possibly two impact players and rely on late free agent signings and good drafts to upgrade their rosters. Also remember that despite Dallas being on this list most of those wins were the result of the Jimmy Johnson's draft class. While the Cowboys have been big spenders in free agency in recent years they have zero playoff wins since 1996 to show for it. Their recent resurgence was in large part due to Bill Parcells and the good work the Parcells regime did in the draft.

The fact is that every year there are teams that try to throw a lot of dollars at their problems. The results haven’t been very good. We know all the teams that have tried. The Saints trading an entire draft for Ricky Williams. Carolina giving up two first round picks for Sean Gilbert. The Redskins going older with "Prime Time" and Bruce Smith. But below is the classic example in the Free Agency era.

2006 Washington Redskins - Note that the Redskins are annually among the NFL’s biggest spenders. After going 10-6 in 2005 and winning their second playoff game in the Snyder era, the latter decided to go for it all just like he had done in 2000. This particular season they went after wide receivers Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd, strong safety Adam Archuleta, and tight end Christian Fauria. The result was even worse this time. Portis was hurt in training camp and the Redskins limped to a 5-11 season and last place in the NFC East. What 2006 did was strap the Redskins for salary cap space in 2007 and 2008. Lloyd and Archuleta are no longer with the team. Christian Fauria had 2 total catches with Washington before leaving for Carolina. Randle El is the only player from that free agent class just two years later and may be cut to save salary cap space. That spending spree netted only five wins.

I thought I would go back the last two seasons and check out past articles on the winners and losers of the free agency period. These were two of the best. On March 21, 2006 Jason Cole who is a sports writer for MSNBC picked the following winners and losers in the 2006 free agency class:

Panthers, Browns, Dolphins, & Redskins – The teams singed prominent players like Bentley, McGinest, Washington, Randle El, Lloyd, Culpepper, Archuleta, Lloyd, Kemoeatu, and Lewis. They also combined to go 23-41 with Carolina having the most success at 8-8. Meanwhile he named the Jets, Patriots, and Chargers the big losers of free agency. The Chargers were criticized for losing Brees, the Patriots for losing Abraham and some quality offensive lineman, and the Patriots for losing McGinest, Givens, and Vinatieri. They combined to go 36-12 and all three teams made the playoffs.

The other was John Clayton’s free agency report for ESPN for the 2007 season. His 5 free agency winners (San Francisco, New England, Miami, Tampa, and Denver) didn’t fare too well. Only New England won more than 10 games. Only New England and Tampa made the playoffs. Meanwhile his 5 losers (Ravens, Packers, Giants, Raiders, and Texans) had better overall results. While the Ravens and Raiders didn’t fare well the Texans finished 8-8 in the leagues toughest division. The Packers and Giants squared off in the NFC Championship Game with the Giants winning the Super Bowl thanks to their great draft class by first year GM Jerry Reese.
I’m not saying that John Clayton and Jason Cole are not solid NFL reporters. We have all made mistakes when predicting things and I think the two of them would be the first to admit that the draft is much more important than the free agency period. People want to know who did well in free agency and who didn’t and their job is to report that information.

The problem that teams get into in free agency is that many teams try to sign good players without looking at the system they came from. Archuleta was a fine safety in St. Louis but due to his lack of speed he needed to play in a Cover 2 scheme. The Redskins ignored that when signing him in 2006 and the result was a disaster. The same thing happened to the Saints with David in 2007. Fine cornerback in a Cover 2, not bump and run man to man. The result was a liability at the corner that gave up lots of big plays.
That is why New England was successful in 2007. They not only signed good players last off-season, but they signed players that fit well into the system they played in. Thomas was a great addition to the 3-4. Welker was an essential acquisition to take advantage of Moss' double teams. The result was an improvement from 12-4 to 16-0 in the regular season.

Other teams ignore injuries or past trends. The Texans decided to sign a big name running back in Ahman Green last season. While Ahman Green had amassed 8,162 rushing yards, 2,833 receiving yards, 4.5 yards per rush, and 67 touchdowns in seven years with Green Bay he was clearly in decline. He hadn’t averaged over 4.0 yards per carry since 2004 and hadn’t had double digit touchdowns or over 1200 yards rushing since 2003. He was clearly past his prime yet the Texans threw four years and $23 million at him. The gain was 43.3 yards per game rushing and 2 touchdowns while playing only 6 games in an injury-plagued season.
Meanwhile the Packers addressed running back by trading for Ryan Grant and the result was the most rushing yards in the NFL after Week 8 if we include the postseason. Nobody in Green Bay remembered who Green was, or what he had achieved priorly, after the Denver game. That trade was instrumental in securing a NFC Championship Game bid.
The Dolphins fell into a similar trap (Texans' mistake) with Culpepper. Culpepper had a record-breaking season in 2004 when he had a 110.9 QB rating with 39 touchdowns and 11 picks. He also through for 4,717 passing yards. He also had Randy Moss. In 2005 he was injured for the season, but did manage to play seven gamesin which he was awful. Without Moss he looked lost. He finished 2005 with a 72.0 QB rating, 223.4 yards per game, 6 touchdowns and 12 picks.
That didn’t discourage the Dolphins from trading a second round pick for Culpepper and taking on his large contract. Culpepper was never able to get healthy and struggled in his four games as a Dolphin. He clearly had not recovered from his knee injury sustained in Minnesota. He was released the following season. That move and the signing of Joey Porter did not produce the intended result and the Dolphins have bottomed out at 1-15 as a result of terrible free agency moves and trades.

The morale of the story here really seems to defy common sense. Many fields are looking for experience over youth. Do you want an experienced surgeon or a first year medical student doing your heart surgery? You would think it would be better to get a proven commodity in free agency than take a crapshoot in the NFL Draft. For every Peyton Manning there are ten Ryan Leafs. For every Tom Brady there are a thousand Ken Dorseys. You would think that teams could identify which free agents will work with much greater success as opposed to someone that has never played an NFL game.
The problem is two-fold. First, professional football is a young man's game. The average NFL career (or its peak) last 3.5 seasons. You are better off getting a young player and getting good years out of him that getting someone that has too many miles on the tires. Older players, just like cars, tend to break down as they get older.
Second, the best players don’t hit free agency anymore. When Reggie White hit the free agent market in 1993 teams weren’t as savvy with the Franchise Tag. In the early years of free agency players like Reggie White and Deion Sanders were able to move from team to team. There was real gold in the free agency market. That just doesn't happen anymore in todays' NFL. Now there is a lot of "Fools' Gold". Those star players would be franchised and inquiring buyers would be forced to give up two first round draft picks to acquire them. Players like Brady, Favre, L.T, and Manning never hit free agency because teams take care of them with lucrative long-term contracts.
In free agency or trades you are getting one of three things, 1) A young unproven player that is in too far down on the depth chart to hang on to, 2) An older player that has a few years left in him but does not fit into the rebuilding process to justify paying that high of a salary, 3) A character issue guy who is a locker room disaster and needs to be traded to prevent further friction with the team.
Sometimes those players work out. The Saints did well in getting Drew Brees in free agency despite concerns about his shoulder. Randy Moss did just fine in the Patriots' locker room. While it didn’t look like a big deal at the time the Packers were very happy to give up a 6th round pick to get Ryan Grant from the Giants. However, for everyone of those trades or free agency signing there are players like Ricky Williams who destroyed the Dolphins with his retirement after giving up 2 first round picks or Sean Gilbert who never justified the 2 first round picks he sent to Washington.

The teams that do well year in and year out have a common denominator. They get a strong front office in place. They hire a solid Head Coach. They target a franchise QB in the draft. They stick with those guys through thick and thin. Then they use conservative free agency and solid drafting to keep their teams competitive. They don’t hold onto players that are past their prime that demand astronomically high salaries. They take calculated risk. They aren’t afraid to take a risk or gamble, but they don’t get into bidding wars wasting valuable dollars on questionable free agents. Finally, they do not trade draft picks like an unimportant commodity. They don’t draft many busts in the first round and they get a lot of mileage out of the second day of the NFL draft.

As we head into this Free Agency Period remember these three important things: 1) That the Winners of the Free Agency Period will probably not be in the playoffs next season, 2) That the Losers of the Free Agency Period probably will be, and 3) That if you want to know how your team is going to fare in 2008 you would be best off to watch Day 2 of the NFL draft and the Free Agency Signing Period that follows the Draft. That is where Jerry Reese won the Super Bowl for New York in 2007. How your team does on Day 2 this year will go a long way in determining who is playing football come January 2009 and who is getting a head start on the Free Agency Class of 2009.
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