Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

Prescriptions to NFL teams; part IV

In our final installment of the NFL Prescriptions we are getting to the teams that at the worst won a playoff game or earned a first round bye. Teams that could have made or even won the Super Bowl had just a few plays gone different. These are teams that probably aren’t in need of wholesale changes, but rather need improvements to a few areas of their team. This is the prescription I would write to help cure the teams that were among the best in the NFL in 2007.

Seattle Seahawks 10-6

The Seahawks have been the class of the NFC West since 2003. After making the playoffs as a wild card in 2003, they have won the division in each of the last 4 seasons. However, unlike past seasons where the Seahawks had the feel of a contending team; the 2007 version had a feel of a team entering a decline. They were aided by 14 games against non-playoff teams and a weak division that featured Arizona, San Francisco, and St Louis. The Seattle offense ranked 9th in points scored in 2007. It isn’t as if they were horrible on that side of the ball. The Seahawks' major issues are centered in the running game where they ranked 20th. Shaun Alexander is 30 years old and coming off a 716-yard campaign that featured only 4 rushing touchdowns. Saying he looked horrible last year would be a compliment. Maurice Morris, who is also aging for RBs standards, had some good games, but doesn’t look like a feature back. The Seahawks need to think about addressing running back in the first round of the draft. The offensive line also has some issues as well. Walter Jones will be 34 and entering is 12th season. They have never really replaced Steve Hutchinson at guard since he left for Minnesota after the 2005 season. The decline in the running back and offensive line has transformed this offense into a pass-first unit. As a result, Hasselbeck threw for a career-high 562 times which gave him one of his most productive seasons. While the passing game was stellar they have some issues there too. They have a bunch of number 2 & 3 targets without a legitimate number one. Engram was their best target last season. It was his first 90 plus catch and 1,000 yard season in his 12-year career. He turns 35 this season. Branch still has never registered a 1,000-yard season or recorded more than 5 touchdowns in a single season. His health is in doubt to start next season due to his knee injury in the playoff lost to Green Bay. Burleson has been great at returns, but disappointing at receiver. Hackett is the best primed to emerge as a number one guy, but must stay healthy unlike he did in 2007. Tight end was nonexistent in 2007. They could use upgrades at both tight end and receiver.

On defense, they ranked 6th in points allowed. Kerney, Peterson, Tatupu, and Trufant were all extremely productive. They didn’t really have a glaring weakness on the defensive side of the ball. 19th in passing yards allowed could be viewed as troubling, but Trufant is an emerging All Pro. Deon Grant and Jordan Babineaux are both solid. They can use what most teams need; upgrades at depth in the pass rushing and pass defense packages. Additional depth in the middle of the defensive line would help as well. It’s hard to stay on top for an extended period of time in the NFL. The Seahawks have been drafting relatively low in recent years. If they can get younger at running back and offensive line while maintaining their productivity in their other areas they should be primed to win the NFC West in 2008 again.

Jacksonville Jaguars 11-5

For the Jaguars it has to be the Super Bowl or bust in 2008. This is the year they need to pass the Colts in the AFC South. After going 12-4 in 2005, the Jags failed to capitalize on that solid season in 2006 and dropped to 8-8. Last year they rebounded to go 11-5 in the toughest division in football and winning an epic playoff game against Pittsburgh before gracefully bowing out to eventual AFC Champion New England in the second round. The Jags' needs are pretty simple. They have a great rushing offense and their defensive tackles give them a strong base for stopping the run. Stroud and Henderson when healthy are as strong of a duo as there is in the NFL. They need to generate a better pass rush and they need to have better targets on offense. Let’s start with the offense. Their four leading receivers cannot average 32.3 yards per contest each. That is simply unacceptable. A receiver other than Reggie Williams has to emerge in the red zone. While obtaining Troy Williamson from the Vikings adds drops to the lineup, he hasn’t shown he can add production. He never had a good QB situation in Minnesota. A change of scenery may do him well. This is a team that has thrown first round pick after first round pick at the problem to no avail. They need to look at adding a veteran that can mentor these younger players. While Randy Moss is probably not a realistic option, especially in light of recent news about Moss resigning to a multi-year deal to remain in New England, there are plenty of receivers in the free agent market that may be able to help in that regard.

On defense, they need to get more pressure on the QB. While their 37 sacks ranked tied for 9th in the NFL, the Ravens and Saints, ranked 19th tied with 32 sacks. A fine line differential, as you can see. When the Jags front-four was able to generate pressure they sacked the QB. Paul Spicer led the Jags with just eight sacks at the defensive end spot. Their next leading QB sacker was a 3-player group tied with four sacks each. Their inability put pressure on Brady in the playoff game with a 4-man rush resulted in 26 for 28 efficiency. It is probably a combination of the Jags needing to open up their scheme and obtaining some players that will allow them to do that. Overall, the Jags are in great shape. Garrard had a fantastic first year starting and Taylor and Jones-Drew were a stellar 1-2 punch. With improvements to their receiving core and obtaining more pass rush, the Jags should be in position to compete with the Colts for the divisional title as soon as next season. 

San Diego Chargers 11-5

This is a team that was supposed to be the most talented in the NFL entering last season. In 2006, L.T. had a historic season and the Chargers went 14-2 with a team full of young players. They lost their playoff game by a field goal. When the Chargers limped out of the gate at 1-3 in 2007, many people didn’t think the Chargers might even make the playoffs. Yet they closed on an incredible hot streak and won their last six games. They then (In the playoffs) beat the Titans, before upsetting the Colts on the road with many key players on the sideline. They then gave New England all they wanted before bowing out 21-12. So, where does that leave the Chargers in 2008? It’s hard to have both a defense that stops people and forces a lot of big plays. Usually big plays come at the expense of giving up some big plays. The Chargers ranked first in interceptions with 30. The second place team recorded only 22 interceptions. They ranked 5th in sacks with 42 sacks. They ranked tied for second in fumbles recovered with 18 fumbles recovered. However, they ranked 14th in yards allowed, 14th in pass yards allowed, and 16th in rush yards allowed. The Chargers need to find a way to keep the big play in their defense while improving in the yardage department. Having Jamal Williams healthy the whole season would help. Upgrading in the middle of the linebacker core could help as well. Cooper and Wilhelm made solid contributions, but they could afford either added depth or a stronger replacement.

On offense, the Chargers will benefit from Ex-Dolphin Chris Chambers being with the team for a whole season. The problem is still the same as it has been the last 3 seasons. Someone needs to step forward and take the lead as the number one target and register 80 catches for 1,200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns. Until they get that receiving production, they will continue to have issues in the passing game. The Chargers just need to continue to improve with their young talent and try to improve their overall depth. This is a young core that should be entering its prime contending years. If they play their cards right they have a few more years left at contending for a Super Bowl title.

Dallas Cowboys 13-3 

Again, it is hard to find fault in a team that lost by 4 points to the eventual Super Bowl Champions. It is also hard to find fault in a team that started 12-1 with its only loss being to the almost perfect New England Patriots. The three areas the Cowboys need to address are: 1) The pass defense, 2) Wide Receiver, and 3) Play calling balance. The pass defense was by far the weakest unit on the Cowboys. They ranked 13th in that area. While Roy Williams is great at stopping the run, he is a liability in the passing game. Newman is a very underrated cover corner who was limited to start the season. Henry was also hurt last year, but has yet to prove he is irreplaceable. The Cowboys need to improve both their 2nd corner spot and their overall nickel and dime units. At receiver, Terrell Owens is still elite and Crayton played well in filling in for Glenn. If this trio can stay healthy in 2008,  they will be a formidable unit. Glenn will be 34 by the start of next season and Owens will turn 35 in December of 2008. The Cowboys need to get young at the wide receiver position long-term.  Finally, Jason Garrett needs to make sure that he maintains offensive balance. The few times when the Cowboys struggled on offense last season, the problem was that they were forced to strictly throw the ball. The Cowboys ranked 21st in rushing attempts with 419. The only team that had a lower number of attempts that made the playoffs was the Packers whose 388 rushing attempts ranked 28th. However, the Packers did not have a Pro Bowl running back in Marion Barber nor did they have a back up like Julius Jones. If the Cowboys can maintain better offensive balance that should help Romo cut down on his 19 picks. The Cowboys look like they are in great shape for next year. Romo is still young and the core players are coming back. They have already signed veteran LB Zach Thomas. Provided he can stay healthy, he should help solidify the middle of their defense. They also have two first round picks in this year's draft. This team was very close of advancing deep in the playoffs in 2007. They were the second best team in the NFL most of the season behind only the Patriots. If they can address the areas discussed above, they should be even better equipped to make a serious Super Bowl run.

Indianapolis Colts 13-3

The Colts had the second youngest team in the NFL to start the season last year behind only the Green Bay Packers. What was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the defense turned into a season where the Colts ranked 1st in points, 3rd in total yards allowed, and 2nd in pass yards allowed. Bob Sanders was the Defensive Player of the Year. Where they did struggle was with a 15th ranked rush defense. One area the Colts could improve in is trying to get bigger at the defensive tackle. They could also use basic improvements in their defensive depth. On offense this team has been ranked in the top-10 in both points scored and yards gained all but one season since 1999. They need to start thinking about replacing Marvin Harrison's past years' production. He is going to be 36 years old next season and his coming off a season where he played in only five games. While Gonzalez looks like a good pick in last years' draft, the Colts could afford to upgrade their receiver position to make their 3 and 4 wide receiver sets stronger. Other than that, they are strong and set at just about every other position on offense. Saturday is the only starting lineman over 30 years old. Peyton Manning is as good as ever. They need to make sure they stay ahead in a division where three teams made the playoffs in 2007 and Houston finished 8-8. If they can continue to address their depth and upgrade the run defense they should continue to be a force in the AFC for the next couple years.

Green Bay Packers 13-3

For the first time in the last three offseasons, the retirement decision of Brett Favre will not be paramount for what direction the Packers head next season. Aaron Rodgers played well in a loss to Dallas. He has seemed to progress each preseason. Green Bay seems committed to going with him should #4 decide to hang it up. If Favre comes back as expected, the Packers will still need to address the same areas as if he was not there. His coming or going should not impact the Packers off-season moves. This is a team that lost by 3 points in OT to the eventual champs. A few plays here or there and they could have been in the Super Bowl. They had the youngest roster in the league and have many young players that should continue to improve. Up until Week 8 the glaring weakness was the running back position. Ryan Grant has calmed the Packers fears about running the ball. They need to think about adding another running back either in free agency or the draft in the event that Ryan Grant is the back that showed up against the N.Y. Giants and not the Seahawks. They need to address the guard position on their offensive line. They could use some youth at tackle. On defense they need to improve their nickel and dime packages. Woodson and Harris are both over 30 years old. Frank Walker was a disappointment in the nickel packages. They could also use some help at outside linebacker. They didn’t get a lot of pass rush at that position and struggled to cover tight ends. Finishing 4th in scoring and 6th in points allowed does not mean you reinvent the wheel. Ted Thompson has stayed clear of free agency and used the draft to bring this team back to contention. Improving their overall depth and toughness, making sure they are prepared should the injury bug hit next season (healthiest team in the NFL in 2007), and facing the burden of being the hunted and not the hunter are going to be as big to the Packers success in 2008 as a race to acquire more talent to make it over the top.

New England Patriots 16-0

Offense is hardly this teams' problem. They finished what was a historically amazing season on the offensive side of the ball. They scored a record 589 points. Their point differential was 19.7 points per game. Brady and Moss connected 23 times for scores. Making sure Moss resigns will be huge. If he is not resigned they have an even tougher decision with Stallworth. If both leave they will be in the same boat as last season, at this time, at the receiver spot. The Patriots ran the ball effectively when needed despite injuries to their backs. Their line played well until the last couple games of the playoffs, most notably the Super Bowl. If they can keep the offense together they should be able to produce again at a very high level in 2008. This is a team that has more age issues than talent issues, especially on defense. The middle of their defense is starting to get old. Middle Linebacker and Harrison are the important issues. If they lose Samuel in free agency they will have to find some corner help. The defense did rank 4th in points allowed, but that was in large part due to the big-lead cushions their offense often gave them. They need to get younger and faster at several key positions or they will face the prospect of having to win shootout after shootout in 2008. Overall they should be in good position to compete for a title next season. Their goal will be the same as it has always been in the Brady era. Continue to add depth and youth on both sides of the ball. The difference this year is they need extra attention addressing the linebacker and secondary positions.

New York Giants 10-6