First off, let me state that I am a 'born-again Christian' when it comes to College Football recruiting rankings. Ever since Pete Carroll, Mack Brown, and Nick Saban (LSU) stepped foot on their proverbial campuses, the world of recruiting changed. It changed..........DRAMATICALLY. By Nostradamus.
In the 80's and 90's recruiting was simply 'hearsay' and word of mouth. In our newfangled day and age of the Internet and free information, the hidden gems are now FAR from hidden. Sure, we all know about the 2-sports star that went on to NFL greatness, or the under publicized walk-on that was a state treasure. Those are nice stories, but overall, teams that recruit the best, end up winning the most.
There have been pundits on both sides this year arguing whether the recruiting rankings mean all that much. In general, whether they mean much at all. Time to put the true reality into perspective. In plain English, and In plain fact. Not fiction, Not opinion, but FACT.
Are you ready? Well, here it goes:
First off, let's start off with the big one. THE NATIONAL CHAMPIONS over the past few years.
If we put into play that Senior and Junior classes are the predominant force of any given team, we must extrapolate any recruiting class, or classes, over a 4-year time period before truly evaluating the talent at hand.
With that said, the 2005, 2006, and 2007 champions came from the 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2005 recruiting classes. Utilizing the most respected recruiting site known to College Football, we simply look at Rivals. com for our/my statistics.
In 2002, the top rated class in the country was........ Texas. The 2005 National Champion? Texas. The top-rated class eventually went on to simply become National Champions in their collective Senior year.
In 2003, the top rated class in the country was..... LSU, followed closely by Florida and USC. The 2006 National Champion? Florida. The 2006 FINAL AP rankings? Florida, Ohio state, LSU, and USC.
In 2004, the top rated class in the country was...... USC, followed by LSU. The 2007 National Champion? LSU. The team WIDELY considered to giving them their best competition? USC.
Are you seeing a correlation yet? LSU and USC were predominant in recruiting rankings in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. Results? BIG-TIME National Championship contenders 3 and 4 years later. Texas' championship in 2005 was largely due to their 2002 class and Vince Young. (Remember him? He was 'kind of ' good if I remember correctly).
So you ask: "What about the conferences and their teams that have been contenders?" Well........ I'm glad you asked.
Let's start with the biggest and baddest bullies on the block. The SEC. (I'll post on each BCS conference in later posts, and bring them to light as well.)
From here I will simply list the conference recruiting rankings of each year, followed by the SEC Conference Champions, and Runners-Up to boot.
1st: Recruiting rankings in the SEC every year since 2002 till 2005 to whet your whistle.
2002: 1.Tennessee 2.Georgia 3.Auburn 4.South Carolina 5.LSU 6.MSU 7.Florida 8.Arkansas 9.Alabama 10.Ole Miss 11.Vanderbilt 12.Kentucky
2003: 1.LSU 2.Florida 3.Georgia 4.South Carolina 5.MSU 6.Auburn 7.Tennessee 8.Arkansas 9.Ole Miss 10.Alabama 11.Kentucky 12.Vanderbilt
2004: 1.LSU 2.Georgia 3.Florida 4.Tennessee 5.Alabama 6.Auburn 7.Arkansas 8.Ole Miss 9.South Carolina 10.Kentucky 11.MSU 12.Vanderbilt
2005: 1.Tennessee 2.Georgia 3.Auburn 4.Florida 5.Alabama 6.LSU 7.South Carolina 8.Arkansas 9.Ole Miss 10.MSU 11.Kentucky 12.Vanderbilt
In correlation, the SEC Champions since 2005 have been: 2005: Georgia 2006: Florida 2007: LSU
For the 2005 classes of Juniors and Seniors (2002, 2003 recruits) when we average them out it is: 1.Georgia (2.5) 2. LSU (3) 3.Tennessee (4) South Carolina (4) 5.Auburn (4.5) Florida (4.5) 7.MSU (5.5) 8.Arkansas (8) 9.Alabama (9.5) Ole Miss (9.5) 11.Vandy (11.5) Kentucky (11.5)
The SEC Champion in 2005? Georgia. The Runner-Up? LSU. (1 and 2 according to the Junior and Senior class rankings).
For the 2006 classes of Juniors and Seniors (2003, 2004 recruits) when we average them out is: 1.LSU (1) 2.Florida (2.5) Georgia (2.5) 4.Tennessee (5.5) 5.Auburn (6) 6.South Carolina (6.5) 7.Arkansas (7.5) Alabama (7.5) 9.MSU (8) 10.Ole Miss (8.5) 11.Kentucky (11.5) 12.Vanderbilt (12)
The SEC Champion in 2006? Florida. The Runner-Up? Arkansas. An oddity, but LSU finished 3rd in the final AP poll. Arkansas was merely a blip on the map. Players such as Darren McFadden can make up for a lot. (Enter your excuses here please.)
For the 2007 classes of Juniors and Seniors (2004, 2005 recruits) when we average them out is: 1.Georgia (2) 2.Tennessee (2.5) 3.LSU (3.5) Florida (3.5) 5.Auburn (4.5) 6.Alabama (5) 7.Arkansas (7.5) 8.South Carolina (8) 9.Ole Miss (8.5) 10.Kentucky (10.5) MSU (10.5) 12.Vanderbilt (12)
The SEC Champion in 2007? LSU. The Runner-Up? Tennessee. Georgia was the #1 ranked (average) class and only ended up being the #2 ranked team in the country after the bowl games. Tennessee had an incredible year to somewhat rise to power again behind solid Junior and Senior classes. LSU simply used talent across the board, amongst all classes to eventually claim the title. Their 2003, 2004, and 2005 classes eventually trumped them all when all classes were considered.
The funny thing is that the SEC numbers don't match up as well when we consider all the other conference champions. Those are yet to come, and by far the biggest argument you will see. But as the facts are, the numbers you have seen already aren't very far from the truth about recruiting rankings.
Still a non-believer in the College Recruiting rankings? The best is yet to come.
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