Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

Prescriptions for NFL teams: Part III

This is Part III of the NFL Prescriptions presented by Dr X and Derek Lofland. Now we are starting to get to some teams that were either just on the outside looking in at the playoffs or were the teams that qualified for opening round games. Unlike the Dolphins, Falcons, and Raiders these teams have some very strong personnel groups and are looking to add some final pieces to their puzzle to make a playoff or even Super Bowl run. Here is what we think these next 8 teams need to do to get over the hump:

Minnesota Vikings 8-8

The old saying goes that Championships are won by running the football and stopping the run. If that is the case, the Vikings should be in excellent shape. The Vikings finished the 2007 campaign ranked 1st in rushing yards gained at 164.6 yards per game and first in rushing yards allowed at 74.1 yards per game. The difference of 90.5 yards per game was more yards than Chiefs, Lions, Bears, and Cardinals averaged in rushing yards on the entire season. That is dominating the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. Unfortunately, for the Vikings this is not 1929. There is something called the forward pass. The Vikings ranked 28th in passing yards gained and 32nd in pass yards allowed. What that means is that all that hard work in the rushing department was wasted. The Vikings were an average 15th in points scored and 12th in points allowed. They were 13th in yards gained and 20th in yards allowed. Hence an 8-8 finish. The Vikings have a major decision to make in year 3 of the Tarvaris Jackson experiment. After limited playing time in his rookie season does 171 completions in 294 attempts for 1,911 yards 9 touchdowns and 12 picks for a QB rating of 70.8 justify another year? It is my opinion that it would be foolish to draft another rookie QB. If the opportunity presents itself to add a Donovan McNabb or an experienced signal caller, by all means, take the opportunity to upgrade the position. Otherwise, there is no college QB with the credentials Peyton Manning had coming out of Tennessee or Carson Palmer had coming out of USC to justify wasting a high draft pick or trading draft picks up to acquire. Regardless of whether the Vikings make a change they need to add targets. Bobby Wade was their leading receiver in receptions (54) and yards (647). He was second on the team with three receiving touchdowns. Rookie Sidney Rice led the team with four touchdown catches. To put that in perspective rookie James Jones had 47 receptions for 676 yards and 2 touchdowns despite being the 3rd receiver and competing with Donald Lee and Ryan Grant for touches. The Vikings need to add weapons at both the receiver and tight end positions while hoping that Sidney Rice continues to progress.

On defense, the Vikings have a lot of issues too. While the Vikings did record 38 sacks, their team leader saw a 3-way tie for 1st place at 5 sacks each. They need to get some pass rushers on the ends and linebackers to put pressure on the QB. The secondary was amazing at making big plays. They had six touchdown returns on the season. It wouldn’t hurt to get a little more depth at corner and possibly think about a replacement for the still very effective but aging Darren Sharper. All and all the Vikings are in good shape. They have a young team and drafting Adrian Peterson was a great move last year. Now if they can fix the deficiencies in pass offense and defense they should be poised to compete for not only the wildcard, but also the division.

Houston Texans 8-8 

Houston really had some bad breaks last season. First, it doesn’t help to play in a division with three teams that make the playoffs. Second, it doesn’t help when your number one offensive weapon Andre Johnson misses seven games and your starting QB Matt Schaub misses five starts. Finally, it doesn’t help when Green; the running back you paid big money to in free agency to turn your running game around misses 11 games. I thought the Texans did quite well for themselves to achieve their first .500 season in the history of their franchise when you combine the injuries they had to their best skill position players and the fact that they played in a division with 3 teams that won 10 plus games that all qualified for the playoffs. Still, injuries weren’t the only thing holding this team back.

The defense has made some strides, but by no means is to be called elite. 22nd in points allowed, 24th in yards allowed, and 25th in pass yards allowed, and 19th in rush yards allowed on the surface indicates there wasn’t a lot of defense strengths. DeMeco Ryans is on the verge of becoming a perennial Pro Bowl Linebacker. Mario Williams silenced critics by posting 14 sacks in 2007. Amobi Okoye posted six sacks in his rookie campaign. Dunta Robinson is a quality NFL cornerback. Those four players should be cornerstones of this defense for years to come. This is a team that doesn’t have a glaring strength or weakness. In time, I think they will be an AFC contender as they have a number of good young pieces in place. On offense, they need to find a running back and some offensive line help. That would be a good thing to address in the draft. They could also use a target to complement Johnson. On defense they need I think they need to sign a veteran influence. This team could really benefit from someone like Zack Thomas. While it will be tough to contend in this division if they can add a few more pieces and stay healthy in 2008, they could contend for one of the wildcard spots.

Philadelphia Eagles 8-8 

The Eagles is one of those teams that are very deceiving in the statistics department. Donovan McNabb had 3,324 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in 14 games. Westbrook led the NFL with 2,104 all-purpose yards and 12 touchdowns. Kevin Curtis had 77 catches for 1,110 yards and 6 touchdowns. Reggie Brown chipped in with 61 catches for 780 yards and 4 touchdowns. LJ Smith is a good tight end when healthy. The offensive line is in good shape. Conventional wisdom would say that if McNabb and Smith comeback healthy this is an offense that could be set to explode in 2008. However, I think when you examine things more closely some things become rather apparent. While the Eagles ranked 17th in points with 336 points it was much worse. 127 points or over 37 % of their points came in three games (Eagles, Redskins, and Saints). That means in their other 13 games they averaged a tad over 16 points per game. When you consider that the Rams scored 16.4 points per game and ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring you can see where that poses a bit of a problem. Most weeks the Eagles struggled to put points on the board. Kevin Curtis had good numbers last season. Consider though that 11 catches for 221 yards and 3 touchdowns came against the Lions. If you take out that game, he averaged 4.4 catches for 59.3 yards and a touchdown every 5 games. That just isn’t enough from a number one guy. Reggie Brown tanked in his 3rd year. While he salvaged his season at the end, he had 17 catches for 214 yards receiving and zero touchdowns in his first six games , basically the equivalent production of Curtis minus the touchdowns in his game against the Lions. He needs to step up to the plate and get it done week in and week out. This team needs more playmakers on offense. With the exception of Westbrook, they don’t have much else to throw at a defense. It’s the same problem we talk about every year. Minus 2004 and the first couple of games of 2005 when TO was in town; the Eagles have struggled to get plays out of their receivers. They need to address that issue whoever there QB is going to be next season.

On defense, they weren’t too bad as they finished 9th in points allowed with 300 points. They were 7th in rushing yards and 18th in passing yards allowed playing with a secondary that saw Shepherd and Dawkins miss time. Cole has turned into a very solid defensive end and Spikes is a solid linebacker. Kearse may or may not be back with the Eagles in 2008. Regardless they have plenty of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. They held their opponents to less than 20 points 9 times last season and only allowed over 30 points twice. They are probably like most good units; they need minor upgrades and additional depth. This team needs to get some bounce back in their offense. If they decide to keep McNabb, he should be more effective a year removed from knee surgery. The Eagles need to improve his targets and make improvements to their depth on defense and on the offensive line. If they can do that, they should be able to return to contention in the very tough NFC East.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9-7

This is another deceptive team. Defensively they were stellar. They ranked 3rd in points allowed, 2nd in yards allowed, and 1st in passing yards allowed. On offense, they were a pretty ordinary 18th in yards gained and allowed, but had to play without the services of Cadillac Williams for a good part of the season. On the one hand Tampa clearly could have been better had they not sat their starters for the last couple of games. I have no doubt they would have at the worst split against San Fran and Carolina to close the season. On the other hand, they were the beneficiary of being in a division with 1) A Vick-less Falcon team, 2) A Delhomme-less Panther team, and 3) A Saints team that couldn’t get out of their way and started the season 0-4. I am not saying the Falcons and Panthers would have won the division with Vick and Delhomme. Clearly, those teams had other issues. What I am saying is that the Bucs were extremely fortunate to play in a division where 9-7 won the division by two games and not in a division where it would have been good enough for 4th place. The Bucs have some things to think about on defense. Derrick Brooks turns 35 years old next season. Barber turns 33 next season. Those are two of the leaders of their defense. Kevin Carter also turns 35 next season. While they made a great effort to get younger in the draft next year they still could use some more work in that area.

Offense is much more troubling. Production was not as good as on defense, yet age is an even greater concern. Garcia turns 38 next season and Galloway 37 respectively. That means there two best offensive players have 28 years of combined experience. Cadillac Williams has not been impressive since his rookie year. Earnest Graham was good at times and did finish with 10 rushing touchdowns. Hilliard was good at times, but Clayton’s rookie year seems to be a fluke at this point. This is another team that needs more playmakers at the receiver and back positions. They could use some help on their offensive line. I think Tampa Bay is a difficult team to get a read on for next season. They are a lot like the Eagles in that they need a lot more talent at the skill positions. However, you wonder if Garcia and Galloway will continue to defy their age. It does no good to take two steps forward and two steps back. Whether this team can take the next step will depend a great deal on how they address those needs in free agency and the draft. That is the case with every team, but the difference with the Bucs and most of the other NFL teams is that they are half rebuilding project and half team making a final run. They need to get older (Experienced) and younger at the same time which is almost impossible to do. If they are able to find a healthy balance of the two and don’t make any major mistakes in the draft or free agency they may be able to improve on their 2007 NFC South Crown.

Washington Redskins 9-7

 This team needs a new leader. Not a new head coach, but a new owner. After making the playoffs in 1999, he spent them out of contention in 2000. After making the playoffs in 2005 Snyder spent them to a 5-11 record after 2006. In 2007, the Skins won their last four games to make it into the playoffs. Now Snyder is already talking about trading for Chad Johnson. Enough. Great teams are built through the draft. Unfortunately, the Skins' inability to figure that out has them constantly wasting their money in free agency and making ill-advised trades. Chad Johnson has been very productive in Cincinnati, but great offensive talent and a defense that can’t stop anyone have surrounded him. For all his talent Cincinnati is 0-1 in the playoffs during his career. Bringing in Chad Johnson may look good on paper and excite fans, but it is not the answer. Washington was 2-5 against playoff teams. They were 7-2 against non-playoff teams. Even though they ranked 11th in points allowed they gave up 52 points to New England. T.O. had 4 touchdown receptions in their first meeting of the season. The Eagles were able to score 33 points against them. Washington was able to do well against teams like Miami, NY Jets, Buffalo, and Detroit. Other than Green Bay, they gave up a lot of points to some of the top offenses. Washington relied too much on stopping people and not enough on making big plays. They ranked 16th in sacks with just 33. The Dolphins who ranked 24th had 30. Furthermore, they ranked near the bottom of the league in interceptions with just 14. The Redskins also ranked 20th in sacks allowed and 22nd in rush yards per attempt at just 3.8. They could use some help on their offensive line. While Samuels and Jansen are solid players, they could use help on the interior.

Washington needs a wide receiver. Santana Moss had 61 catches for 808 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Redskins didn’t score an offensive touchdown at the receiver spot until their ninth game of the season. However, if they trade Chad Johnson it is going to cost them the salary and draft picks necessary to improve their pass rush, corner, and offensive line needs. This team is already the only team over the salary cap heading into free agency. The Redskins would be best to take a more conservative approach in free agency and rely on the draft. We will see if Daniel Snyder goes that route or sticks to business as usual and tries to make the quick fix.

Cleveland Browns 10-6 

This team had one of their best seasons since the original Browns moved to Baltimore. While the Browns didn’t make the playoffs, they were an exciting team to watch. Expectations are sky high that Anderson, Edwards, Lewis, and Winslow II will be able to take this team into the playoffs. Clearly, the Browns need to improve on defense. 21st in points and 30th in yards allowed is not going to get the job done. The Browns were 24th against the pass, 27th against the run, and 29th in yards per attempt allowed. There is room to improve everywhere there. In particular, they need a better pass rush. They had only 28 sacks, which was at the bottom of the NFL. Seventeen (17) interceptions is not a lot to write home about either. They could use help on the Defensive Line and Corner Positions.

The offense is also in need of some help. The offensive line finally came together. The Browns could use another target in their receiver core. Edwards is phenomenal but Joe Jurevicius would be better served as the 3rd or 4th team option. I am not sold on Jamal Lewis. While he did have 1,304 yards and 9 touchdowns, the majority of that production came in 5 games. 49%of his rushing yards came in games where he had over 100 yards, including his 216-yard effort against the Bengals. He also had 4 of his 9 rushing touchdowns in the Seahawks game. While he had a nice season, he needs to spread out the production more evenly. He still has gas in the tank the Browns would be wise to have a contingency plan in place should he slip in 2008. All and all the Browns are in the best shape they have been in for years. They need to concentrate their efforts on the defense and do some tweaking on offense and they should be in position to compete with the Steelers for the division.

Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6

Pittsburgh was a team that started off hot and cooled as the season progressed. After starting 9-3 they went 1-4 down the stretch with their only win coming against the St Louis Rams. The Steelers were just 3-5 on the road. Part of the problem is their running game was not what it used to be. They relied too much on Big Ben for production in the redzone. While the Steelers did rank third in rushing yards they had only 9 rushing touchdowns which ranked 22nd in the league. That explains why Big Ben’s 32 touchdown passes didn’t translate into more wins. The Steelers first priority has to be the offensive line. They ranked near the bottom of the league in QB sacks. Furthermore, Faneca will probably be gone, which will be a huge blow to their running game. They need to add more talent to that position. Big Ben is asking for a bigger receiver. I’m not sure they are weak there. They have Ward, Miller, and Holmes for their starters. Possibly a taller slot receiver would help in the red zone.

On defense, the Steelers have some concerns as well. Ike Taylor led the defense with just three interceptions. The Steelers ranked last in the league with 11. They did put okay pressure on the QB with 36 sacks, but that pales too the top totals the Giants and Patriots posted. I don’t think a defense that ranked 1st in yards allowed, 2nd in points allowed, and 3rd in rushing yards and passing yards needs to reinvent the wheel. They have a nice core of talent. Improvement in the secondary and pass rushing positions would go a long way to make this stingy defense better. The Steelers still look good to go in 2008. They still have a lot of young talent. If they are able to improve on the line and in the defensive playmaking department, they should be poised to repeat as division champions.

Tennessee Titans 10-6

The Titans GM should repeat after me, “I swear that I will do everything in my power to put NFL playmakers on the roster so that Vince Young has someone to play catch with.” This was the worst pass offense in the NFL. While they were 22nd in points allowed and 21st in yards gained that doesn’t tell the entire story. They threw only 9 touchdowns as a team. Tom Brady had that only after two or three games. Their leading receivers combined for 110 catches for 1,469 yards and 6 touchdowns. Randy Moss had 98 catches for 1493 yards and 23 touchdowns. Vince Young needs to make the jump from college to pro QB. However, he cannot do that if the Titans don’t give him some talent to work with. The Titans desperately need more help at the receiver position. Lendale White finally showed the league why he was so highly thought of last year. The Titans have a good mix of young running backs.

On defense, they can’t be so reliant on Albert Haynesworth. He missing three games sent their defense into a tailspin that almost cost them a playoff birth. Had Cincinnati not beaten Cleveland at the end of the year, the Titans would have been at home for the playoffs. The Titans ranked very well in all the major statistical areas. They are like most good teams that just need to add good depth. The Titans will have a tough time repeating their playoff run. Jacksonville and Indy still have a lot left in the tank and Houston is closing the gap fast. If the Titans want to stay in the playoff picture, they need to add talent at the playmaking positions to help improve their offense. If they are able to do that and Vince Young continues to progress anything is possible.

Also read Prescriptions Part I & Prescriptions Part II