Charging the Mound

A Shaky Market for Starting Pitchers

Now even the consensus #1 pitcher Johan Santana has his share of concerns (33 HRs allowed in 2007 and 219+ innings the last three years). But fret not because despite the lack of dependable aces, there are several younger pitchers who could ascend to ace status and several that may be close. Here is a breakdown of those young hurlers.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia (Age: 24) - Despite missing several weeks last year, the lefty won 15 games and racked up 177 K's in only 183 innings. Of course the question mark with Hamels is his lengthy injury history and the strained elbow last year is no small knick. But he appeared healthy down the stretch and you shouldn't have to reach too far to secure him on your team. Hamels will reward owners by rising to fantasy ace status as he will stay healthy and make a run at 20 wins and 200 strikeouts.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle (Age: 21)- The Mariners sold the farm to get Erik Bedard and that move will only benefit King Felix. After looking like a young Dwight Gooden, Hernandez fell victim to an elbow injury and never looked the same until late in the season. But now he will be facing #2 starters instead of aces and despite having a high BAA (.281) his strikeouts (165 in 190 IP) have stayed consistent. Felix may not reach ace status this year, but he will step up to the next level and approach 190 k's and close to 17 wins.

Matt Cain, SF (Age: 23)- If you are a novice fantasy player you might see Cain's paltry wins total (7) and immediately dismiss him as an above average option. But don't be the guy who makes that critical mistake. While even 15 wins may be a stretch on a terrible Giants team, wins is the most overrated pitching statistic. With a 3.65 ERA and 1.26 WHIP his peripheral numbers suggest greatness could be reached quickly. He allowed only 14 homers last year and if he cuts down on his 79 walks in 200 innings, owners will quickly regret passing on him.

Adam Wainwright, St. Louis (Age: 26)-Similar to Cain, wins will be hard to come by for the Cards de facto ace, but after posting a 2.71 ERA in the second half, he appears poised to take the next step. Although his strikeouts are on the low side (136 in 202 IP), Wainwright did make 32 starts in his first year as a starter and he should improve. But be weary that the last time he experienced a similar workload, arm injuries followed the next season.

James Shields, TB (Age: 26): The control artist Shields turned out to be one of the biggest waiver wire finds last year. One big indicator was his strikeout to walk ratio and that only increased last year (184 k's:36 bb;s in 215 IP) While Scott Kazmir gets all the attention, Shields may be the safer option as he may approach 200 strikeouts this year and ascend to fantasy ace status.

Oliver Perez, NYM (Age: 26)- Since teasing owners with an awesome 2004, Perez could often be seen throwing pitchers to the backstop and walking enormous amounts of hitters. But last year Perez seemed to locate better and starting striking out people like it was 04 again. He is perhaps the most controversial starting pitcher on the market because he could be the biggest bust or a great find. With the addition of Johan Santana and a healthy Pedro Martinez, Perez should be the #4 pitcher in the rotation and that should ease the pressure. Draft conservatively, but don't be surprised if he builds on last year's success.

Now I just want to briefly hit on a few guys who could be pleasant back of the rotation surprises for fantasy owners.

Kevin Slowey, Min (Age: 23)- With pinpoint control, Slowey has dominated Triple A and had a very productive September (28 K's in 29 IP). If he keeps the ball in the park he could win between 12-15 games and strike out 150 batters.

Scott Olsen, Fla (Age: 25)- While his antics are well documented, when right Olsen has a live arm and can dominate games. After recovering from Joe Girardi's absurd workload last year, Olsen struggled and opened the door to be a 2008 bargain. Don't bank on 2006 success just yet but he could approach those numbers if he is mentally focused.

Ervin Santana, Ana (Age: 25)- Santana is domination at home, but struggles on the road. Until last year when he seemed to struggle everywhere. How quickly owners have forgotten the pitcher who went 28-16 between the 2005-06 seasons. Santana could be a potential late draft bargain.

Edwin Jackson, TB (Age: 25)- As a rookie he beat Randy Johnson, but he seemed to be overwhelmed the last few years and he lost his top prospect status. But the Rays stuck with him last year for 31 starts and he rewarded them with a solid August and September. He still has talent and this could be the year he moves forward and starts to regain his once vaunted status.

Anthony Reyes and Joel Pineiro, St. Louis (Ages: 26 and 29)- These two will be counted on to give the Cardinals quality innings and they could do the same for your fantasy squads when played in the right spots. With games against Pittsburgh, these two could have some good performances. Don't forget Pineiro once dominated AL hitters and Reyes showed his moxie in the World Series only a few years ago. With Dave Duncan working his magic, these two young guys might once again find success.

Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia (Age: 23)- Kendrick doesn't strike many people out but he only allowed 16 HRS in 121 innings at a severe hitters park. Kendrick will pitch deep into games and win his fair share with the Phillies powerful offense. He is the perfect type of pitcher to draft in the last few rounds and use him on a favorable match-up basis.

Hopefully in my next column I will be able to post the results of a draft which I participated in a very competitive league. I will highlight reaches and steals and hopefully offer you some insight into where you can and should draft players.