Fantasy Dr X: Strike Zone

Pitchers: 10 Sleepers - 10 Busts

Every year in fantasy baseball, certain pitchers will fall into one of two categories:sleepers or busts. Below are my 10 candidates for the 2008 campaign for each of these categories: By Lawrence Barreca.

SLEEPERS

 American League:

Jeremy Guthrie (BAL)- Last season, Guthrie was just an unknown waiver pickup out of Cleveland, and virtually was a long shot for a top rotation spot. Well, my friends, things have changed. As a rookie at 28 years old, Guthrie went 7-5 last season, with a 3.70 ERA in 175.1 innings pitched. He had the lowest ERA for any rookie last year, and now he will vie for the number one spot in the Orioles' rotation. I believe that he will be better this year for one main reason, he knows that he's going to be a starter, so he can train like one. Last year, he was considered a reliever on opening day, and it seemed as though he tired as the season dragged on. I do not believe that this is the case this season; however, so if he is still available in later rounds, he could easily make a nice back of the rotation guy for your starting 4 (or 5).

Dontrelle Willis (DET)- Dontrelle Willis used to be one of the most coveted fantasy pitchers in the game. With his high leg kick, he would dazzle hitters and rack up not only the K's, but also the victories. That wasn't the case, though, in 2007. He went 10-15 with a 5.17 ERA in 205.1 innings pitched. Last year, his run support rested on the shoulders of Miguel Cabrera, but now, he has that and so much more. The Detroit Tigers post arguably the best starting lineup in the majors, so look for Willis to get plenty of run support. Draft him as a top-30 pitcher, and look for him to get at least 15 victories.

B.J. Ryan (TOR)- Ryan was a top closer in 2006, posting a 1.37 ERA and 38 saves. However, he was held out of the 2007 campaign because of a Tommy John elbow surgery and is making a full recovery. Look for him to come back sometime mid-season, mainly as the guy to take over the closer's role in Toronto. Draft him in the later rounds (not in top-10) and potentially get a steal that could boost your fantasy team heading into the mid-weeks of the season.

George Sherrill (BAL)- George Sherrill was one of the top relievers for the Mariners last year, posting a 2-0 record with 3 saves and a 2.36 ERA. Now in Baltimore, his role has changed. He is now, as told by Dave Trembley, the new closer for the Orioles. Look for him to grab a fair amount of saves in 2008, and saves usually bring in around 10 points each in fantasy baseball. Draft him in the later rounds, potentially rounds 9-11.

National League: 

Homer Bailey (CIN)-  Bailey, the Cincinnati Reds' most promising pitching prospect, showed great potential in his first year in the pros.  He went 4-2 with a 5.76 ERA in 45.1 innings pitched.  Bailey still retains his rookie status, and now he should be looking for an NL Rookie of the Year Award.  Look for Homer to put up good numbers this season, so draft him somewhere in rounds 7-10 for a good sleeper candidate and potential rising ace.

Rich Hill (CHC)-  Hill had his best season in the majors last year, posting an 11-8 record with a 3.92 ERA in 195 innings pitched.  Hill is projected to be the No.3 starter behind Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly, so look for him to grab his share of innings.  I project Hill to be drafted around round 10, but if your willing to take a shot before that then go right on ahead. He won't disappoint you.

Yovani Gallardo (MIL)-  Gallardo was an outstanding rookie last season, posting a 9-5 record with a 3.67 ERA in 110.1 innings pitched.  Yovani is guaranteed a starters' role for 2008, and look for him to get tons of runs support.  This Brewers team is loaded with home run hitters, such as Prince Fielder, Ryan Braun, J.J. Hardy, and Corey Hart.  Look for Gallardo to rack up the wins in his second season in the pros.  I suggest you draft him after you have taken at least a proven ace for your fantasy team. I expect him to be drafted anywhere in rounds 6-8.

John Patterson (WAS)-  John Patterson is expected to be the ace of the growing Nationals staff in 2008.  Last season, Patterson went down with an injury and only posted a 1-5 record with a 7.47 ERA in 31.1 innings pitched.  Don't let those numbers scare you though, because he did have surgery and is expected to be near full strength come this spring.  Draft John somewhere in rounds 10-12 if you want a quality sleeper pick.

Manny Corpas (COL)-  Corpas isn't as much of a sleeper as he is a true fantasy pick.  After taking over for the injured Brian Fuentes, Manny went 4-2 with a 2.08 ERA and 19 out of 20 saves.  Corpas is expected to get the role as closer for Colorado in 2008, and look for him to get plenty of save opportunities.  With that bolstering Rockies lineup, the NL Champions will have plenty of late game leads for Corpas to close out.

BUSTS

American League:

Mike Mussina (NYY)- Mussina is getting up in age nowadays, and his numbers just seem to be getting worse and worse. Everyone knows (or knew) Mussina as a consistent fantasy pitcher, but now he is just trying to keep his place in the Yankees rotation. Mussina is nothing more than a really late pick, and I believe that you will see why come Opening Day.

Mark Buehrle (CHW)- Many of us know Buehrle from the no-hitter that he threw this past season, but can we remember him for anything else? Not really, he only went 10-9 with a 3.63 ERA in 201 innings pitched. Buehrle is not the guy in the Sox rotation that you should be looking at come Draft Day. If you want to draft Mark, grab him sometime after Round 10 and then I think you'll be fine.

Octavio Dotel (CHW)- Dotel had an average season last year, going 2-1 with a 4.11 ERA and 11 saves, but where he is now will lead to his downfall. Now with the White Sox, he must hope that his offense produces enough runs so that he can hold the game together. Dotel is a late pick, somewhere around rounds 8 or 9, but if you grab him, you better pray that he has a good year.

Joe Borowski (CLE)- Borowski had a great year last year by posting a 4-5 record with 45 saves and a 5.07 ERA. But wait, look back at his ERA. Any closer who has an ERA above 5.00 is bond to run into some problems. Borowski is still a guy that you draft in the later rounds; however, if you draft him, keep a close eye on his ERA. It may hurt you in the end.

Daniel Cabrera (BAL)- Cabrera is always a guy that the Orioles get hyped up about because of his potential. The key word there is "potential", and he is still struggling to find it. Cabrera is always a sleeper and a bust mainly because he has the potential to be a Cy Young, but it usually just ends up with a walk-filled disaster.

National League:

Eric Gagne (MIL)-  Though Gagne had a good season with Texas, he literally imploded with his stay in Boston.  As a fantasy owner, I wouldn't want to see that happen again.  I would try to grab a different fantasy closer for my squad, and trust me, there are plenty out there.  If Gagne is still available in the final rounds (which I doubt) then sure, take him.  However, I say don't waste a top-10 pick on a closer that had a mixed season last year.

Jose Valverde (HOU)-  Valverde had a good year last season, going 1-4 with a 2.66 ERA and 47 saves.  I say, don't expect the same this year.  Sure, the Astros will score a ton of runs with their stacked lineup; however, unless Roy Oswalt is on the mound, that stacked lineup will not help a bit.  Valverde will have to hope that his other starting four can eat up enough innings and keep the runs down so that he can get a save opportunity.  Grab Jose in the middle to late rounds if you want a No. 2 or 3 fantasy closer, but that's all that I think he's going to be in '08.

Tom Glavine (ATL)-  Glavine posted a good year in New York, going 13-8 with a 4.45 ERA in 200.1 innings pitched.  Now with Atlanta, though, these numbers are sure to change.  Not because of the team he's on, but because of his gradually increasing age.  He will be 42 years old come Opening Day, and now that he's won his 300th career game, he really has nothing else to win, or lose for that matter.

Chris Young (SD)-  Young was on pace to have a great season; he even made the NL All-Star Team.  However, he struggled mightily after suffering an oblique injury in July.  He ended up going 9-8 with a 3.12 ERA in 173 innings pitched.  He is always an injury risk, so watch him to see how he progresses this spring before relying your hopes on him.

Pedro Martinez (NYM)-  Martinez had an injury filled 2007 season, going 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA in 28 innings pitched.  Martinez is always an injury risk to any fantasy owner, not to mention that there are better Mets' pitchers that should be drafted ahead of him.  Sure, he'll get the run support, but will he be healthy enough to even take the mound?

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