By Derek Lofland. With the fantastic 2007 NFL season now in the books, we will try to analyze each team's glaring needs that need to be addressed in the draft or free agency this off-season. We started out last week with the teams that archived their season in the league's cellar and are continuing up from there. We present you the second of four segments that will cover seven teams that finished the 2007 season with a 7-9 record and one of the four 8-8 teams, the Arizona Cardinals. We include a little bit of humor in these installments while trying not to lose perspective of each teams' needs. A Maniaxs' mock draft will be conducted and published in the near future in which we will mention potential players that could help those teams.
Cincinnati Bengals 7-9
The Cincinnati Bengals need the same thing that the Tin Man needed in the Wizard of OZ. They need to find someone to give this team a heart. This is a team that just two years ago was 11-5 and won the AFC Central. They started last season 8-5 before losing their final 3 games to miss the playoffs entirely. This season they started 2-6 before finishing 7-9. However they still managed to lose games they should have won. While they destroyed Tennessee 35-6, they lost to San Fran away from home. It was a team that seemed to enjoy fighting in house more than they enjoyed winning games.
The offseason has already gotten off to a miserable start. Will Chad Johnson play next year? Will he sit out? Will anyone care? Chad Johnson is a receiver with a lot of talent that has put up great numbers over his career. The fact of the matter is that the team is 0-1 in the playoffs in his Bengal tenure. He needs to prove that his energy and enthusiasm can translate into this team going places every January.
The offense looks to be in pretty good shape. If Chad Johnson does stay he forms one of the leagues best receiving trios with T.J. “Whose your Mama” and Chris Henry. Even tough Carson Palmer had an off year in 2007 is still among the leagues elite signal callers. The Bengals main issue on offense is the running game. They were 24th in the league in that department. Rudi Johnson was injured much of the year. Kenny Watson showed some signs of promise. Irons and Perry are young, but both were injured last season. Losing Steinbach was a huge blow to the running game last year. This team could afford to upgrade in the middle of their offensive line.
Defense is where this team really struggled last year. 24th in points allowed, 27th in yards allowed, 26th in pass yards allowed, and 21st in rush yards allowed. Basically, this unit did nothing right last season. While they and the Bears were among the league leaders in turnovers forced in 2005 and 2006 they weren’t nearly as strong or consistent in 2007. The sad part is that they have invested high picks at corner in Joseph and Hall, which have yet to yield noticeable gains. The easy answer is to say they need to draft some more defensive help. They are like the Jaguars at wide receiver. High pick guys that consistently under produce.
I’m not sure what I would do to improve this team. Until this defense improves mentally it doesn’t matter who they get. They are mentally weak and should have a much better record than they achieved. They need a good psychiatrist. Personally I would have gone in a different direction than Marvin Lewis and started over with the coaching staff. That might not be a bad thing for the Bengals. I said the same thing about Coughlin being replaced and look at what he did for the NY Giants.
Talent wise I think the biggest thing the Bengals need to do is improve the middle of their team. They are inadequate at defensive tackle and middle linebacker. They also need help at guards. Seeing they have experience on the offense I would look to get younger and better on the offensive line in the draft and try to use free agency to improve a defense that has had a lot of high draft picks in recent years but has yielded little results. If they can do that and rediscover their passion and swagger from 2005 they have enough talent on this team to make a playoff push in 2008.
New Orleans Saints 7-9
This is another mentally fragile team. They started off the season 0-4. Improved to 4-4. Fell back to 4-6. Got back in the playoff hunt. Then lost their final two games to finish 7-9. For a team that was in the NFC Championship Game in 2006 this was an awful season. They were a trendy Super Bowl pick including yours truly.
I thought Sean Payton did about as terrible of a job play calling as a play caller could do. Losing Deuce McAllister early in the season definitely hurt his cause. Still, way to many reverses and half back passes. There were way too many 4th down and short attempts with a team that could not control the line of scrimmage. The trick play that resulted in a fumble and loss against Tampa Bay was extremely costly. Payton did a good job of using Reggie Bush in 2006. He got way too caught up in giving him the ball in 2007 at the expense of the rest of the offense. Defenses were not fooled.
While the Saints were 3rd in passing offense and 4th in total yards they needed 652 attempts to get there. The result was 18 interceptions and the 28th ranked rushing offenses in the NFL. Their 6.8 yards per attempt ranked tied for 17th in the NFL. Stecker and Thomas helped the Saints once Bush was injured at the end of the season. Finally, despite all their yardage they were just 12th in points scored.
This team is very similar to the Bengals. This team could not control the line of scrimmage. I think they have enough talent at the skill positions and quarterback spot to compete in the NFL. They need to improve their offensive line and they need to rethink their play calling. If they can add a power running back in the NFL Draft of Free Agency they should think about doing so. Otherwise, on offense they are pretty solid.
Defense is another story. While they did rank 13th in rush yards allowed they were awful in every other department. 25th in points allowed. 26th in yards allowed. 30th in pass yards allowed. Those numbers were yielded in the AFC South with three other teams that did not exactly set the world on fire passing the ball. This was arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL given the competition of the teams they faced.
They are solid at defensive end with Grant and Smith. The front four was their strongest area. They need to improve everything else. They need better linebackers, better corners, and better safeties. They need to pay attention to what schemes their free agents come from. Signing Jason David who came from a Cover 2 scheme and putting him in a man-to-man scheme to be torched was not a wise investment.
The prescription is pretty simple. Get tougher on the offensive line and improve the linebackers and secondary. If they can get back to the things that made them successful in 2006 they should be able to rediscover their playoff ways.
Buffalo Bills 7-9
This team is probably in the worst shape of any of the 7-9 squads. While they produced a respectable 7-9 record, consider that they played in the same division as 1-win Miami and 4-win NY Jets. The Bills seven wins came against Miami (2), NY Jets (2), Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Washington. Out of those teams they beat, only Washington made the playoffs. The Bills won those games by a combined score of 150-95 or 7.8 points per game despite the fact that those squads combined for a 31-81 record or .277 winning percentage. This very weak 7-9 team probably would have won only three or four games in another division.
That becomes evident in their league rankings. 30th in points scored, yards gained, and pass yards. 18th in points allowed. 31st in yards allowed, 29th in pass yards allowed, and 25th in rush yards. The only major statistical area the Bills ranked in the top half of the NFL in was rushing yards. 15th in that department isn’t exactly setting the world on fire. This team was extremely fortunate to get seven wins with those credentials.
Fans get sick of hearing that their teams simply need better players. They want concrete answers that will produce optimism. That is basically where this team is at this offseason. When you are 30th in both yards gained and allowed and are being outscored 6.3 points per game there are plenty of areas to improve. So let’s look at what they don’t need to address.
They shouldn’t need to address QB. Edwards will be entering his second year and Losman is no longer a young QB. They probably need to see where that duo takes them. Lynch had a very successful rookie campaign with 1,115 yards rushing and 7 touchdowns. Fred Jackson was a solid backup. Lee Evans could be a force if he could get consistent play from his QB. After that they need more targets. 86 catches for 930 yards and 1 touchdown is unacceptable from your number 2 receiver, much less your 2nd and 3rd receiver. They need to get more weapons so their QB has options down the field. They could use help on the offensive line.
They need to improve the entire defense. That really isn’t a surprise seeing they lost Clements and Spikes last off-season. Aaron Schobel is fine defensive presence. After his 6 sacks there just wasn’t much pressure. 26 total sacks on the season won’t get the job done defensively. The fact that they had 18 interceptions given that little pressure was created is amazing. Consider thought that the majority of those came against Romo and the Cowboys on a dramatic MNF contest where the Bills played with their hearts. I think if they could put better pressure on the QB they have enough talent in the secondary that the interceptions totals would go up. Defensive backs aren’t going to be very successful if the opposing QB is afforded a lot of time to throw the ball.
The Bills don’t need just one prescription. They need an entire medicine cabinet. Had it not been for the dismal Dolphins and Jets they would have done much worse in 2007. They are young, so there is hope that they could improve with another year of experience. However without more talent at the receiver positions and improvement in the front 7 on the defensive I don’t think there is enough talent in place to expect a playoff push in 2008.
Denver Broncos 7-9
I feel like I am a broken record. The Broncos are in a very similar position to the Bengals and Saints. NO DEFENSE!!!
The Broncos were 28th in points allowed and 30th in rushing yards. That just won’t get the job done. Teams just ran on the Broncos at will. While Bailey and Bly’ are among the best corner duos in the NFL it is hard for them to make game-changing plays if the ball is not in the air.
The offense wasn’t all roses either. While the offense was 9th in rushing, 13th in passing, and 11th overall that didn’t translate into points. The Broncos finished 20th in points scored. They settled for a lot of field goals and Cutler threw too many interceptions in his sophomore year. All in all the offense isn’t too bad. Henry, Young, and Hall all showed promise running the ball. Denver always seems to have good backs. Marshall had a break out season with 102 catches for 1,325 yards and 7 touchdowns. If Walker and Stokley can stay healthy at wide receiver there is enough talent there. Brandon Marshall was a one-man show at the position last season. Scheffler and Graham are viable tight ends.
My prescription is some Weight Gain 4000. BEEFCAKE!!! This team needs the most help on the offensive and defensive lines. While they still did well in the rushing department they weren’t able to excel in the rushing department near the endzone. In 2005 they went 12-4 and were able to get 24 rushing touchdowns out of their offense. In 2006 they slipped to 12 rushing touchdowns and last year they had only 10 rushing touchdowns. They have to reverse that trend and that starts with getting a better push from their offensive line in short yardage and goaline situations.
The other area they need to overhaul is the defensive line. They need bigger and better defensive tackles and defensive ends that can help in run support. They need to move D.J. Williams back to the outside and find a better run-stopping middle linebacker. They need to get younger and more athletic at the safety position. While Lynch is a great leader he just isn’t athletic enough or healthy enough to be a viable option. If they can improve those areas they should have enough other pieces in place to compete for the playoffs in 2008.
Carolina Panthers 7-9
The conventional wisdom is that the offense failed again. 27th in points, 29th in yards and passing yards will do that you. Even the 14th in rushing yards was average too. But the defense does not escape accountability. A unit that traditionally ranks in the top-10 in many areas didn’t make the top-10 in any areas. 15th in points and 16th in yards allowed is not what we are used to seeing. Julius Peppers recording 2 sacks is a shock. Welcome to the NFC version of the Buffalo Bills.
This teams first major decision will be whether they want to keep Julius Peppers or start retooling the defensive line. I think Peppers still has a lot left in him and the Panthers would be wise to keep a player of his talents unless someone decides to drastically overpay for his services. The other major decision is what to do with Jake Delhomme. Vinny Testaverde is officially retired. David Carr did not appear to be the answer. Matt Moore didn’t exactly impress in the few games he played. The Panthers would be wise to address the QB position either through the draft or free agency in case Delhomme’s elbow does not improve.
Otherwise the problems are the same as last season. Foster and Williams are good options, but it would be nice if one would emerge as the go to guy. As it is they have two number 2 running backs. After Steve Smith there just isn’t enough targets downfield. Dwayne Jarrett who was picked in the second round to replace Key Johnson had 6 catches for 73 yards the entire season. Drew Carter had some nice moments but 38 catches for 517 yards is not enough. Other than Steve Smith this offense lacks a real difference maker.
On defense they just weren’t what they should have been. They had only 23 QB sacks. That resulted in only 14 interceptions. There is too much talent on defense to justify these low numbers. Peppers, Rucker, Jenkins, Morgan, Beason, Diggs, Lucas, and Gamble are too good to produce so little.
It is virtually impossible to retool two sides of the football in one draft or off-season. While the defense was not great, they got no help from their offense either. Teams weren’t forced to gamble against the defense, because they were never playing from behind. I would try to prescribe some Austin Powers Mojo. The Panthers need to try to fix the offense. Make sure that if Delhomme is not healthy they are not stuck going to the old folks home for QB help. They need to get some more skill players to help the QB make plays.
With some offensive productivity in place the defense should improve on its own. I would use some of the mid to late rounds to improve parts of the defense as the Panthers could use some more youth there, especially in the front 7. Some young free agent players would also do the trick.
Chicago Bears 7-9
Da Bears! After going 13-3 in 2006 and making it to the Super Bowl, they suffered the curse of the Super Bowl and reverted to 7-9. The problems of Rex Grossman have been well documented. However, there were a number of other reasons why the Bears slipped from the elite teams to last in the NFC North.
In 2006 the Bears finished 2nd in the NFL in points scored with 455 points and 3rd in points allowed with 255 points. There scoring differential was 10.8 points per game which was also second in the NFL. In 2007 they scored over 100 points less at 334 and allowed almost 100 more points at 348. They ranked 16th in points scored and 18th in points allowed. Their point differential slipped almost 12 points per game.
There were a number of reasons for this slip. In 2006 Jones and Benson combined for 1857 yards and 10 touchdowns. They averaged about 4.1 yards per carry. While they didn’t have a 1,000-yard receiver Berrian, Muhammed, and Clark combined for 17 receiving touchdowns and averaged between 13.9 and 15.2 yards per catch. Finally the Bears scored over 30 points in 7 of their 16 regular season contests. The 2007 Bears were not as fortunate. The 2007 Bears only scored over 30 points on 4 occasions; 2 of which were in the last 2 games. Benson and Peterson combined for 1,188 yards and 7 touchdowns. They averaged only 3.4 yards per carry. Berrian, Muhammed, and Clark combined for only 12 touchdowns and were about 2.0 yards per catch lower than ‘06. In other words the offense slipped in both running and passing the football.
The result was that the defense didn’t play as well either. Teams weren’t forced to play from behind. The Bears had a lot of injuries early in the season, especially in the secondary. Losing Mike Brown was huge. Tommy Harris was not the same as 2006. Brian Urlacher was not 100 % for most of the season. Between their injuries and the offense’s ineffectiveness, they were never able to dominate on defense as they did in 2006. The only bright spot was the Special Teams. Hester has established himself as the leagues premier return man and Brendon Ayanbadejo is a force at disrupting the other teams return game.
The Bears have a number of needs this offseason. They need to overhaul the offense. That starts with deciding what they are going to do at QB. Do they want to go into 2008 with Grossman, Orton, and Griese? Do they want to draft another youngster with their first round pick? Do they want to bring in an experienced backup?
Once they decide that, do they need to continue to add more playmakers? Olson was a good start last season. Outside of Hester they really don’t possess an offensive player that scares people. They definitely need to think about adding a receiver and running back to compete with or replace Benson. Finally they are pretty old at tackle. Tait and Miller are 33 & 35 years old respectively.
On defense they still have a lot of talented players. If need to address the safety and defensive tackle positions. If they can get better production at those spots and stay healthy in 2008 an improved offense would go along way to helping the defense and getting this team back into playoff contention.
Detroit Lions 7-9
The Lions were a team of two seasons. After starting the season 6-2 and trailing the Packers by only one game for the Conferences best record, they limped to a 1-7 finish to close out 2007. The tailspin resulted in the firing of Mike Martz and his run and gun spread offense.
While Mike Martz took the fall it was really the wide receivers that failed the team. We recommend that Matt Millen spend his first, second, and third round picks on upgrading this neglected position. All kidding aside it was the defense that failed this team. We prescribe a major overhaul on that side of the ball.
Anytime your defensive unit finished 32nd out of 32 teams in scoring defense, 32nd out of 32 teams in yards allowed, and 31st out of 32 teams in passing yards allowed it is clearly time to drastically retool that department. Unlike the Minnesota Vikings who were also terrible in pass defense but number one against the run, the Lions finished 23rd out of 32 teams in that department.
There are some good pieces on defense. Simms is quickly becoming a Pro Bowl linebacker. Bailey, Bryant, K. Edwards, Lenon, Redding, Rodgers, and White have all played well in stretches at one point in their career or another. Detroit needs to focus on upgrading the safety position and adding some more corners. After they have done that they need to fine tune the front 7 by adding some more depth. An impact pass rusher would be nice as well. Defensive Tackle Rodgers led the team with 7 sacks. That doesn’t speak well for the rush they were getting from the ends and outside linebackers.
The offense also needs some help. While they have a stable of running backs with Bell, Duckett, and Jones no one has established themselves as a dominant player at that position. The Lions averaged only 80.5 rushing yards and scored only 13 rushing touchdowns. Having a new play caller will help. It’s hard to gain rushing yards when the Lions had games where they had less than 10 total rushes. Still, a more reliable runner and some upgrades on the line might not hurt either.
Overall, the Lions aren’t in too bad of shape. Kitna has shown the ability to lead the offense and the Lions have some offensive weapons in place. Williams and Calvin Johnson form a solid #1 and #2 combo. If the Lions are able to upgrade their defense they should be in position to compete for the division or at least earn a wild card spot next season.
Arizona Cardinals 8-8
This team made some good strides in 2007. Mediocre .500 seasons are certainly an accomplishment in the Desert. They happen about once every 10 years. However, this team was just too up and down. They beat the Browns, Seahawks, and Steelers but were swept by the 49ers. They just are not physical enough to be a playoff team.
The Cardinals were 5th in passing yards and 7th in points scored. Fitzgerald and Boldin are among the best targets in the league. There is talk that Fitzgerald could be traded this offseason which would be a big mistake. However, they were 29th in rushing yards. James was able to reach 1222 yards and 7 touchdowns. Their next leading rusher had 78 yards and they only got 2 other rushing touchdowns on offense. This team has to run the ball better in 2008 if they want to become a playoff team.
The other problem is on defense. While they finished 9th in rushing yards allowed they were 28th in passing yards allowed and 27th in points allowed. Adrian Wilson is a fine safety and the secondary forced interceptions. The team also generated decent pressure on the quarterback. However, they depended on big plays too often to stop the other team. Their inability to run the ball kept the defense on the field too much and resulted in a lot of shoot out type games. The Cardinals have to figure out a couple things.
First, is Warner going to be the starter next season or are they going to go with young Matt Leinart? While Warner put up nice statistics, he is not the long-term answer for Arizona. Ideally they need Leinart to not only take over, but also play well enough to warrant staying on the field every down. Even before the injury his play had taken a step back, creating a QBBC sort of situation. Secondly, they need to continue to upgrade the offensive line. Get more physical and be able to control the line of scrimmage. They need to think about drafting a compliment for James and find someone that can split the load with the productive back.
Finally, they need to get more production from the backs and tight ends in the passing game. Their top-4 receivers accounted for almost 74% of their passing yardage. J.J. Arrington led their backs with 29 catches for 249 yards and Pope led the tight ends with 23 catches for 238 yards. That is unacceptable!
Once they are able to improve in those areas the offense will help keep the defense off the field. That will go a long way to improving the defense. On defense they need to draft and sign some impact defenders. They have all their role players in place. They have a bunch of players with 4 to 6 sacks and 2 or 3 interceptions. However, they don’t have that player that offensive coordinators from around the league stay up late at night having nightmares about how to stop. Someone that can get the big stop on 3rd down. Someone that elevates the play of the entire defensive unit.
Adrian Wilson is a fine safety. Dansby has shown promise at linebacker. Hood and Rolle had 5 interceptions each. There are good parts there. They just need to continue to add talented players and continue to hope that their young defenders improve. The good news in the NFC West is that there isn’t a New England or Indy that wins 12 games every season. Seattle has dominated the division in recent years, but appears to be on the decline. San Fran and St Louis are also rebuilding. They should be able to compete in the NFC West next season. They were close last year. If they can make some good moves this offseason and avoid being swept by San Fran; the Cardinals may finally do the unthinkable and win this division.
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