The This and That of Fantasy Football

Mock Draft - Rounds 1-3

Round 1

1. Marshall Faulk, RB, Rams
2. Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks
3. Kurt Warner, QB, Rams
4. Ahman Green, RB, Packers
5. Ricky Williams, RB, Dolphins
6. Edgerrin James, RB, Colts
7. Daunte Culpepper, QB, Vikings
8. Terrell Owens, WR, 49ers
9. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, Chargers
10. Priest Holmes, RB, Chiefs
11. Randy Moss, WR, Vikings
12. Curtis Martin, RB, Jets

Faulk should be the consensus number-one pick in every draft. After that this year will be more of a crapshoot than any other year. I have participated in five mock drafts so far this month. One constant I have seen is the emphasis of taking RBs as early as possible. I have always believed and won because of my belief that RBs win championships. Every year more and more fantasy owners start to understand that. Next stop for Warner is the 5,000 yards passing mark. Despite coming off injuries, I rate James and Culpepper this high until they show me they shouldn't be. Owens is as reliable as any top-flight RB. He has scored at least 13 TDs in three of the last four years. Look for Moss to silence his critics with a monster season. Remember last season he had 80 catches for 1,224 yards and 10 TDs in what was a bad year. Even though Cris Carter is gone, the Vikes' running game is still suspect, and new coach Mike Tice has vowed to get Moss the ball.

Round 2

13. Corey Dillon, RB, Bengals
14. Stephen Davis, RB, Washington
15. Marvin Harrison, WR, Colts
16. Anthony Thomas, RB, Bears
17. Eddie George, RB, Titans
18. Deuce McAllister, RB, Saints
19. Jeff Garcia, QB, 49ers
20. Peyton Manning, QB, Colts
21. Antowain Smith, RB, Patriots
22. Fred Taylor, RB, Jaguars
23. Donovan McNabb, QB, Eagles
24. Aaron Brooks, QB, Saints

Eddie George should rebound to his old form, because his toe injury has had ample time to heal. McCallister is unproven, but at least he's without a doubt the guy in New Orleans. Seven of the picks in Round 2 were RBs. If RBs start flying off the board, you'll have to act quickly or your season will be over before it starts. To win, you either have to have two solid starting RBs or one superstar RB like Faulk. I don't think in a real draft Manning and Garcia would go this low, but think about something. In my draft, Favre, Gannon and Griese are still on the board going into Round 3 not to mention guys like McNair and Green are out there too. My point is QB is a deep position, and it's not the worse thing in the world to wait to draft one.

Round 3

25. David Boston, WR, Cardinals
26. Rod Smith, WR, Broncos
27. Torry Holt, WR, Rams
28. Brett Favre, QB, Packers
29. Joe Horn, WR, Saints
30. Emmitt Smith, RB, Dallas
31. Jimmy Smith, WR, Jaguars
32. Rich Gannon, QB, Raiders
33. Brian Griese, QB, Broncos
34. Isaac Bruce, WR, Rams
35. Garrison Hearst, RB, 49ers
36. Keyshawn Johnson, WR, Bucs

Expect Holt to eclipse his 1,363 yards receiving last year, while also reaching double digit TDs. Emmitt could be a steal at this point, as I think he will have a huge season - at least 10 TDs - as he chases Walter Payton's all-time rushing record. Emmitt probably won't go this high in your draft, so you should be able to get quite a bargain when you select him. Griese spent too much time throwing to guys named Chris Cole and Kevin Kasper. With Ed McCaffrey back and hopefully healthy ankles for Rod Smith, look for Griese's numbers to soar. Forget about all the talk about Kevan Barlow stealing a ton of carries from Hearst. Comeback player of the year Hearst averaged 4.8 yards a carry last season, and look for him to better his five TDs. Keyshawn Johnson caught 106 passes last year with one TD. In four of Keyshawn's six NFL seasons, he has caught eight TDs or more. Look for Johnson to revert back to that form.

Rosters

Team 1
1. Marshall Faulk, RB
2. Aaron Brooks, QB
3. David Boston, WR

Team 2
1. Shaun Alexander, RB
2. Donovan McNabb, QB
3. Rod Smith, WR

Team 3
1. Kurt Warner, QB
2. Fred Taylor, RB
3. Torry Holt, WR

Team 4
1. Ahman Green, RB
2. Antowain Smith, RB
3. Brett Favre, QB

Team 5
1. Ricky Willliams, RB
2. Peyton Manning, QB
3. Joe Horn, WR

Team 6
1. Edgerrin James, RB
2. Jeff Garcia, QB
3. Emmitt Smith, RB

Team 7
1. Daunte Culpepper, QB
2. Deuce McCallister, RB
3. Jimmy Smith, WR

Team 8
1. Terrell Owens, WR
2. Eddie George, RB
3. Rich Gannon, QB

Team 9
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, RB
2. Anthony Thomas, RB
3. Brian Griese, QB

Team 10
1. Priest Holmes, RB
2. Marvin Harrison, WR
3. Isaac Bruce, WR

Team 11
1. Randy Moss, WR
2. Stephen Davis, RB
3. Garrison Hearst, RB

Team 12
1. Curtis Martin, RB
2. Corey Dillon, RB
3. Keyshawn Johnson, WR

Analysis

The team that stands out to me so far is Team 1 led by Marshall Faulk. Because Faulk is by far the premier fantasy player, you have to hope that the team that has him messes up on later picks. If you have Faulk, he stays healthy and you make solid picks the rest of the way you're in the best shape. Add Aaron Brooks and David Boston to Faulk, and you've got a frightening nucleus. In this situation, Team 1's next pick should be a running back. There are a lot of quality WRs left like Tim Brown, Eric Moulds, Derrick Mason, Plaxico Burress and Chris Chambers to name a few. You just need to add a decent RB to assist Faulk. A guy like Jerome Bettis, Duce Staley or Tiki Barber would suffice with Team 1's next pick.

Also notice running back strong teams 9 and 12. Team 9 has LaDainian Tomlinson, Anthony Thomas and Brian Griese. With second year backs Tomlinson and Thomas, this team is capable of unlimited heights. I always say running backs win championships. If Tomlinson and Thomas both reach double digit TDs, which is very possible, this team will be near the top. Team 12 has Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon and Keyshawn Johnson. Dillon has shown over and over again he will produce despite the Bengals' struggles, so if Martin continues to dispel all the talk that trails him every year in fantasy circles that he'll slow down because of all the carries he's logged, Team 12 will prosper.

Team 6 has Edgerrin James, Jeff Garcia and Emmitt Smith. Any owner that drafts James will be taking a risk, but James is such an extraordinary back that even after a torn ACL he'll still probably be better than most backs in the league. If Emmitt has the season I think he'll have, this team could be solid. But, on the other hand both running backs are risky picks - Edgerrin because of injury and Emmitt because of age. You have to think about whether you want to take the chance of taking two risky picks for your top running backs.

If your top running back is a risky pick and either gets hurt or doesn't produce according to where you drafted him at, you could be in a lot of trouble. Examples of this are Team 3 and Team 7. Team 3 has Kurt Warner, Fred Taylor and Torry Holt. If Taylor somehow stayed healthy, look out for Team 3. But, if Taylor goes down as usual even Warner to Holt couldn't lead this team to the top. Think about how many teams in your leagues had a player like Warner and finished low in the standings. The reason is because they did not have the running backs needed to win. Team 7 has Daunte Culpepper, Deuce McAllister and Jimmy Smith. McAllister is a guy that could have a great year. Obviously the Saints think so, or they wouldn't have traded Ricky Williams. But, I'd be leery of counting on an unproven player like McAllister to be your number-one running back. If you do have a questionable number-one back, it doesn't hurt to have a rushing quarterback like Culpepper to pick up some of the rushing slack.

Installment # 2 of my mock draft, which will consist of rounds 4-6, is coming soon. Until then do your homework. Believe me that's what the best fantasy football players are doing.