Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

Extensive Superbowl preview!

By Derek Lofland. The big question entering Super Bowl Sunday is whether the NY Giants have a chance to defeat the undefeated Patriots. People are looking at many different areas. They are looking at the difference in wins between the two clubs. The difference between the AFC and NFC. They are looking at the turnover differential. The difference between the quarterbacks. Most people are looking at parallels between the other undefeated teams, mainly the 1972 Dolphins or the previous one-loss teams to reach the Super Bowl in the 1984 49ers or 1985 Bears all of which won. The overwhelming opinion is that while the Giants are a nice story no one is going to pick them to stay in this ball game.  If you are picking the Giants to do the unthinkable it is probably because you don’t want to see the 1972 Dolphins have company, Chuck Noll be equaled by The Hood, or you just don’t like the Patriots. It probably isn’t because of any quality football analysis.

I decided to go in a different direction. In the Super Bowl era we have had five monumental upsets. Teams that where favored to win by 7 points or more but failed to deliver. The games are as follows:

Super Bowl III - NY Jets (12-3) vs. Baltimore Colts (15-1) - (The Colts were favored by 20 points, but the Jets won 16-7)

Super Bowl IV – Kansas City (13-3) vs. Minnesota (14-2) - (The Vikings were favored by 12 points, but the Chiefs won 23-7)

Super Bowl XXV - New York Giants (15-3) vs. Buffalo (15-3) - (The Bills were favored by 8 points, but the Giants won 20-19)

Super Bowl XXXII – Denver (15-4) vs. Green Bay (15-3) - (The Packers were favored by 12 points, but the Broncos won 31-24)

Super Bowl XXXVI – New England (13-5) vs. St Louis (16-2) - (The Rams were favored by 14 points, but the Patriots won 20-17)

I tried to take away five factors that were common to these five games:

1) For the most part, these were competitive games – The only game that was won by more than double digits was Super Bowl IV. One thing you have to remember is that the NFL was viewed as the superior league to the AFC back in the 1960s. When the 1966 Packers beat the Chiefs 35-10 and the 1967 Packers beat the Raiders 33-14 there was little doubt in anyone’s mind that the NFL was the vastly superior conference. Still the Colts finished 2nd in scoring offense and 1st in scoring defense. They won their games by an average of 18.4 points per game. The 1969 Vikings were 1st in both scoring offense and scoring defense and won their games by an average of 17.6 points per game. Even if the sporting public had not been so biased toward the NFL, it is hard to imagine that these teams would not have been favored. It probably wouldn’t have been by as much. However when you look at the three recent upsets, the Bills had a chance to win the game had it not been for Scott Norwood, the Packers were around the Denver 30 yard line on a game tying drive when they turned it over on downs with about 0:30 left, and the Patriots broke a tie with a game winning field goal as time expired. I think history shows us that if the 2007 Patriots are to lose to the Giants it will probably be by a very slim margin.

2) Hall of Fame Coaches – Weeb Ewbank had won the 1958 and 1959 NFL Championship Games with the Baltimore Colts in addition to his Super Bowl III ring. He is in the Hall of Fame. Hank Stram was 1-1 in the Super Bowl and is in the Hall of Fame. There is no doubt that if Bill Belichick walked away from the game today he is a First Ballot Hall of Fame Head Coach. He has 3 Super Bowl rings. Bill Parcells is also Canton bound one day. He has two Super Bowl rings and 170 career victories. I have to believe Mike Shanahan is Canton bound. He has 146-95 record as head coach, has won 2 Super Bowls, and is already in the top 20 for most victories all time by a Head Coach. He is still active and his 1997-1998 playoff legendary run should catapult him into the Hall of Fame when combined with his regular season statistics. If you combined these coaches winning percentages it is an amazing 706-412-18, or a career .629 winning percentage. They combined to win 9 Super Bowl rings plus Ewbank’s 1958 and 1959 titles. If you are going to pull an upset of these proportions, you have to have an incredible head coach. One that can come up with a great game plan, stick with it, and have his team execute it to perfection. 

3) Hall of Fame QBs – While it is nice to have someone great roaming the sidelines, it also helps to have a great field general to lead the attack. Four of the five QBs on this list are either present or future Hall of Fame QBs.  (Brady, Elway, Dawson, Namath). That doesn’t mean they were already locks when they won the game, but they either had had great careers or went on to have great careers. The only one on here that was not a Hall of Famer was Jeff Hostetler of the 1990 Giants. Phil Simms who is a borderline Hall of Famer was injured for the big game. He was the starter until he suffered a broken bone in his foot in a regular season 17-13 loss to the Buffalo Bill. The Giants didn’t depend on their quarterback much. Simms had 2,284 yards passing and 15 touchdowns to 4 interceptions.  The Giants were number one in scoring defense, number two in yards allowed, and number two in scoring differential. All time great Lawrence Taylor and a stellar defensive unit led the Giants.  Otis Anderson was the perfect running back for that game.  His powerful style allowed the Giants to control the ball for 40:33 minutes in that game, including 22 minutes in the second half. That is still a Super Bowl record.  While losing Simms hurt, he was not the essential part of the team and allowed the Giants to survive that loss.

4) Excellent balance – Except for the 1990 Giants, everyone had great balance. The Giants were exceptional at running the ball with no turnovers while playing solid defense. They were very limited in the passing game. The 1968 Jets had a Hall of Fame QB throwing to two 1000-yard receivers. Matt Snell and Emerson Booozer provided an excellent one two punch on offense running the ball. They featured a defense that ranked first in the AFL in yards allowed and had 28 interceptions that season. The 1969 Chiefs were 1st in both points and yards allowed in the AFL. They were 2nd in points scored and 3rd in yards gained. They won their games by 13.0 points per game, which was also the best in the AFL. The 1997 Broncos were very under appreciated entering that game. They were 1st in scoring offense and 6th in scoring defense. The Broncos were 1st in point differential at 11.6 points per game. Terrell Davis had 1750 yards rushing and 15 rushing touchdowns, while Elway passed for 3635 yards and 27 touchdowns against 11 picks. The 2001 Patriots were not given a chance, because no one knew how first year starter Tom Brady would fare against the Greatest Show on Turf. They didn’t even know if his ankle would allow him to play. People failed to take into account that while the Rams had good balance, so did the Patriots. The Patriots were 6th in points scored, 6th in points allowed, and featured 1,000-yard rusher Antowain Smith, and 1,000-yard receiver Troy Brown.  Smith had 12 rushing touchdowns that season and Brown chipped in with 5 touchdown receptions. If you are going to pull out an upset like that, you have to adjust to the various different situations that game will present. New England was able to play keep away from the Rams offense early in the game to keep the score close, but was able to switch into the 2-minute offense and drive the team down for the game winning field goal. That is big in games like these.

5) Winning the Turnover battle and Running the Football –When you are an underdog, it is essential that you win the turnover battle and control the clock. While Namath made the guarantee and won the MVP, the Jets secondary won the game. Few people realize that Joe Namath had only 206 yards and zero touchdown passes in that monumental upset. What he didn’t have is the four Colts interceptions. The Jets' only turnover was a fumble and they won that turnover battle 5-1. The Chiefs were able to pick off three passes and recover 2 fumbles in their upset of the Minnesota Vikings. They also won the turnover battle 5-1. The 1990 Giants and 1990 Bills did not have a single turnover in that game. Not turning the ball over and having only 5 penalties for 31 yards allowed the Giants to control the clock. The 1997 Broncos won their turnover battle 3-2 thanks to two Packer fumbles and one Favre interception.  The 2001 Patriots used two Warner picks and another Rams fumble to win the turnover battle 3-0. In the rushing department, these five teams were able to excel. The winning team averaged rushing the ball 155.4 yards in the Super Bowl to the losing team’s 112.2. Only the 1968 Colts won the rushing battle but lost the game. They had 143 yards rushing to the Jets 142. Five turnovers will do that to you. The Giants and Bills were separated by only 6 rushing yards, but that was in large part to the 15 carries by Thurman Thomas for 135 yards. While the Bills were close on yardage, it didn’t translate into controlling the clock. The Giants had 14 more running plays than the Bills. 

So how does that translate for the Patriot’s opponent? Terrell Davis isn’t running the ball in this game. Bill Parcell isn’t the coach.  Lawrence Taylor isn’t pressuring the quarterback. Looking at statistics and past performances is all fine and good, but in the end, it comes down to if you can cover Randy Moss or put pressure on Tom Brady, right? I agree with that to a certain extent. Players make plays. I think some stats are useless. For instance, that the Giants were 1-4 against the Packers in the NFL / NFC Championship Game. Who cares? 1936, 1939, 1944, 1961, and 1962 don’t have a lot to do with 2007. It has nothing to do with how Eli Manning was going to play last Sunday.  Those are what we call interesting but not relevant statistics. It didn’t result as an advantage for the Packers who lost 23-20 in OT.

However, there are other statistics that I do believe are useful in predicting future happenings. I think when only 8 out of 42 teams have won the Super Bowl without a top 10 scoring offense and scoring defense there is a reason for that. Only one of 42 teams won the Super Bowl with a record worse than 11-5. There is also a reason for that. I think there is a recipe success that works year in and year out and only a few teams playing in that particular season have it. In other words, if a particular team has A, B, C, D, and E that should equal Super Bowl success.  Football, for the most part, has been played the same in the Super Bowl era. Four quarters totaling 15 minute each, same shaped football, 100-yard field between the endzones, etc. There have been changes between the live ball era vs. the dead ball era, the pass interference call, etc. No matter what rules were in effect for that year the rules have been the same for every team in that given year. Obviously unless you have a crystal ball or some good tea leaves, you won’t be able to predict the future with 100% accuracy. However, I think you can look at win- loss records, scoring offenses and defenses, trends, and personnel traits to come up with recipes and probabilities of things happening. 

Therefore, given how the previous monumental upsets materialize do the Giants have any shot of beating the New England Patriots? Seeing we won’t know if it will be a competitive game until Sunday, let’s look at the other four factors I have discussed above:

1) Hall of Fame Coach – The NY Giants have a seasoned coach, but probably not a Hall of Fame Coach. He has been employed as a head coach every year since 1995 other than the 2003 season. He has a 103-89 record or .536 winning percentage. Prior to this season, he was just 4-6 in the playoffs and two of those wins game in the 1996 season. He has coached in three conference title games going 1-2.  This is his first Super Bowl. While he is a good coach, he definitely is not on par with the other coaches that pulled off these previous monumental upsets. If he does become a Hall of Fame Coach, it is because of what he has done from Week 17 going forward, not what he has done in the past. He will need to win more than this game to make Canton.

2) Hall of Fame QB – It is too early to tell whether Eli Manning will eventually be a Hall of Fame QB. He is only in his 4th year. Prior to Week 17 the answer would have been a resounding no possibility ever. However, he has shown a new maturity that suggests he may very well be capable of bigger and better things. Only time will tell.

3) Balance – The NY Giants are pretty average in the season rankings. Their 373 points scored was 14th in the NFL. Their 352 points allowed was 17th. Their 1.4 point per game differential was 13th.  They have a very strong ground game that ranked 4th in rushing yards, but a passing attack that ranked 21st. They led the league in sacks. This is a team that relies very heavily on the run game and on their defense to put pressure on the QB. They really aren’t built to come from behind or make explosive plays in the offense other than Burress.  

4) Turnovers / Ball Control – The Giants have run the ball well all season. However, the Giants had a –10 turnover differential, which was 26th in the NFL. Until Week 17, all they did was turning the ball over. Eli Manning has yet to throw an interception in the playoffs and the Giants have been among the best in the playoffs at valuing the ball. Ball control has been huge as they controlled the clock for over 40 minutes in the NFC title game.

When you look at the formula, the Giants really don’t fit the bill. No Hall of Fame Coach or QB. Not good enough balance and too many turnovers. History shows that they have little to no shot of even staying in this game. You can look at past games, past statistics, and see how these teams match up. Combine that with how good the Patriots have looked and on paper, the Giants have no shot to stay within two touchdowns of the Patriots. However, I believe the Giants can win this game. Even though statistics are fun to look at there are instances where a team defies the statistics. 

Let’s go to the NBA. Everyone knows the formula for winning a title. Hall of Fame mega star with a strong second player and other parts to compliment them. Since Magic Johnson came into the league in 1980 that has been the formula. Johnson and Kareem. Bird, McHale, and Parish. Thomas and Dumars. Jordan and Pippen. The Dream and Clyde. Shaq and Kobe. David and Tim. Nevertheless, there is that one team that defied the formula. That was the 2003-2004 Pistons. Despite not having one clear-cut first ballot Hall of Famer and only winning 54 games in the regular season, the Pistons were able to win the NBA title beating the LA Lakers with three future first-ballot Hall of Famers and Gary Payton who is also a borderline Hall of Fame player. They did so convincingly winning the series 4 games to 1. 

I think people have to consider how unusual the 2007 NY Giants have been. They had a –10 turnover differential in the regular season good for 26th in the NFL. They had a 1-5 record against playoff teams with their only win coming in Week 3 against Washington on a goal-line stand. They were 3-5 at home, but 7-1 on the road. However, they only beat one playoff team on the road that being the Redskins. They failed to crack the top 12 in either scoring offense or scoring defense. This is a team that should have lost in the first round. 

Once they got out of the first round they had to play two 13-3 teams. The Cold Hard Football Facts did an excellent article on 10-6 teams in the playoffs. It goes as follows:

“Fourteen teams with records of 10-6 or worse have advanced to the championship round since the NFL expanded to 16-game seasons in 1978 and made the 10-6 record possible. Those 14 teams went 2-12 in the championship round – and one of those wins came when the 9-7 Rams beat the 10-6 Buccaneers in the 1979 NFC title game.”

“Since 1978, there have been 51 playoff games between two teams separated by three or more games in the regular-season standings – i.e., the 16-0 Patriots vs. 11-5 Chargers and the 13-3 Packers vs. the 10-6 Giants. The team with the worse record has won just 8 times in 51 tries, a dramatically terrible .157 winning percentage.  In addition, the teams with the better record averaged just a hair under 30 points per game (29.5) while the losers managed only 13.9 – a difference of more than two touchdowns. That's a remarkable rate of dominance in any collection of NFL games, let alone between playoff teams.”

NFL history has shown that teams like the Giants had no chance to beat the 13-3 Cowboys. They bucked a.157 trend to win that game. Then they bucked the same trend against the 13-3 Packers in the championship game in addition to .090 trends of 10-6 teams in the Conference title game going against teams with better records. What they have done is truly amazing and unprecedented. Therefore, I think it would be foolish to think that the Patriots will win on Super Bowl Sunday in a blowout. While the numbers would suggest this is the most lopsided match up in Super Bowl history, the Giants have been defying the statistics for the better part of a month now. They are not here by accident and I think it would be foolish to dismiss them because of their regular season.

The fact of the matter is that Eli Manning was holding this team back for most of the season. He threw way too many interceptions. His completion percentage was too low. His passing yardage was too low. Simply put the Giants passing offense was making so many negative plays that the running game and the defense were not able to survive the lack of production and big mistakes. For whatever reason something must have happened in between Weeks 16 and 17. The game suddenly slowed down for Eli. Since that game, he has 8 touchdowns to 1 pick. He is passing for good yardage. He has three games where he has over 100.00 rating. He has evolved into a positive difference maker. It is almost as if an alien space ship came to Earth and kidnapped Eli replacing him with a Super Clone. He has looked like a completely different QB the last month. If he plays the same way on Super Bowl Sunday, the Giants have an excellent chance to win the game. Like the 2003-2004 Pistons, this team is not being given any type of shot. N.Y. Giants fans will claim that no one respects them.  It isn’t that no one respects them. It’s that no one that studies statistics can figure out how this team is even here. 

My prediction for the game is Patriots 34 NY Giants 27. The Patriots were my pick to win the Super Bowl at the beginning of the season and they have done nothing to change my mind. I can’t pick both teams to win and I try not to be a bandwagon guy. I haven’t picked the Giants to win a big game all season. Why would I start now? 

The main thing that scares me on the Patriots' end is the condition of Brady’s ankle. While I know Brady will play it remains to be seen if he will have the mobility he needs to step up in the pocket and avoid the outside rush. If he is even slowed for a split second that is an advantage for the Giants. However, even if Brady were 100% the N.Y. Giants are making me nervous about the pick given their solid play the last month.

Even though all the statistics say they shouldn’t even be here I have watched them play for the better part of a month and they look like an incredible football team. I believe this game will be a physical battle and that the Patriots will get everything they want and more. I would be surprised if the Patriots lost, but not shocked. Start giving this Giants team their due. They have been playing great football for a month and it is time they start getting the respect they deserve. While they aren’t a great team on paper games aren’t played on paper. In the words of Kenny Mayne, they are played inside TV sets.

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