Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

Fantasy report: AFC North

By John Floyd.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Strengths: The Steelers have always depended on bone-crunching defense and a solid running game to get them into the playoffs. This year will be no exception. Through Week 9, Pittsburgh had surrendered just 98 points to opponents, the lowest total allowed by any defense in either conference to that point. During that same span, they averaged 150.5 rushing yards per game, second best in the league. But their 8th-ranked pass offense also features talents like Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, and tight end Heath Miller, so stacking defenders in the box to stop Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport can (and frequently does) lead to big plays down the field. It's trendy of late for sportswriters to downplay talk of the Steelers being the third best team in the NFL, after New England and Indianapolis, but few of these armchair experts can name one other club as balanced or dangerous on both sides of the ball.

Weaknesses: Despite maturing and relaxing a bit, QB Ben Roethlisberger can still be a liability at times. He makes a lot of big plays and has become more adept at avoiding sacks, but he's still prone to forcing throws and getting picked on occasion - often at the worst possible times. Injuries were a problem for Pittsburgh early on, but they seem to have gotten healthy now. The biggest concern is avoiding "letdown" games against lesser teams, like their losses to Arizona and Denver. Most troublesome in these losses was the offensive line's sub par pass blocking, which kept Roethlisberger on edge and on the run. If they stay healthy and maintain their intensity, they're tough to beat, but if they allow themselves to look past an opponent, they are vulnerable.

Upcoming schedule: Jets, Dolphins, Bengals, Rams, Ravens - against that competition, it's hard to imagine the Steelers not finishing with double-digit wins and a Division Title. This week's rematch with Cleveland is the last real obstacle to an AFC North crown, and a week 14 trip to New England will show whether or not they're really capable of running with the big dogs.

Prediction: The Steelers should win at least 12 games this season and contend with the Colts for the other bye week in January. They have the talent and the schedule to vie for the top spot in the AFC playoffs, but they'll have to prove that they've put the tendency to take an occasional week off behind them. Opponents should avoid falling into the trap that sportscasters and pundits have of dismissing Pittsburgh, since this is a team that feeds off any perceived lack of respect.

Fantasy Impact:

QB Roethlisberger: 20 Touchdowns and 6 picks is outstanding, but 13 of those TDs came in 3 games. That means 7 touchdown passes in the other 5 games. Also, no 300 yard games this season. He is a good start, but his volatility will be frustrating. The fact that the Steelers can rely on the run so heavily limits his attempts and opportunity for big numbers. Still, he leads a high-scoring offense loaded with weapons, so hang on to him.

RB Parker: Now that he's healthy, he's truly an elite back. The only knock would be the Steelers' penchant for using Davenport around the goal line. With the teams left on Pittsburgh's schedule, however, he's likely to be a fantasy phenom from here on out. Must start each week.

RB Davenport: As noted, the go-to guy inside the 5-yard line. That said, he's not a starter on the field, and he shouldn't be on your fantasy team, unless you are in a touchdown only league.

WR Holmes: A big play threat on every snap, but does drop a few here and there. Probably not a great number one, but a solid number two.

WR Ward: There aren't many receivers in the league that are tougher or more dependable. For a "possession" receiver, Ward still gets his fair share of touchdowns, too. Same as Holmes, a solid number 2.

TE Miller: A beast who catches a lot of passes over the middle, and usually racks up good yardage after the fact. Roethlisberger loves him, so he gets in the end zone fairly regularly. The better the defense they face, the more touches Miller will get. Must start each week.

K Reed: The fifth-highest scoring kicker in the league through the midway point. He'll stay in the top 5 throughout the second half of the season, so play him.

Steelers Defense: #1 against the pass, #4 against the run, #1 in points allowed, #1 in points scored, and #1 overall. Do I need to say more?

Cleveland Browns

Strengths: Derek Anderson took over at QB at just the right time. The offensive line was beginning to gel as a unit, Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow, Jr., were finally reaching their full potential as premiere receiving threats, and the addition of Jamal Lewis meant that they could actually punch the ball into the end zone from the goal line on a consistent basis. With low expectations and all eyes on Brady Quinn, Anderson was able to settle in and make the offense his own. Though they are only ranked 17th in rushing, the Browns field the league's 4th-ranked passing attack, and are a threat to score on every play.

Weaknesses: As evidenced by the final scores of their games, Cleveland has a porous defense that forces them to score a lot of points to stay in each contest. Ranked near the bottom of the league in every statistical category, the Browns haven't proven they can stop anyone yet. They do make the occasional big play on the defensive side of the ball, but that won't be enough to save them should they make it into January. Offensively, Cleveland averages 110.9 yards per game on the ground - decent, but hardly spectacular. As long as the defense continues to give up big chunks of yards, the running game won't get its chance to truly shine, which doesn't bode well going into the winter portion of the season.

Upcoming Schedule: Pittsburgh looms, but after that the Browns' schedule looks manageable. Road trips to Baltimore, Arizona, and the New York Jets are all potential wins, as are home games against Houston and San Francisco. The most likely traps are a road game in Cincinnati and a Week 15 home contest against the Buffalo Bills. The Browns have the offensive talent to win both games, but they'll need to make some big plays on the other side of the ball.

Prediction: 10-6 seems likely for Cleveland. They score too many points and face too weak a schedule to completely collapse down the stretch, but they aren't ready to dominate the division just yet. If they make it into the playoffs (and a 10-6 mark could get them there in this year's AFC), they'll be hard pressed to keep pace with the truly elite teams. A 2007 version of the 2006 Jets, talented young team with a favorable schedule. Still, for a guy who was looking at unemployment after Week 1, Romeo Crennel has his team believing in themselves and playing with a lot of heart.

Fantasy Impact:

QB Anderson: Believe it or not, probably the best AFC fantasy QB after Brady and Manning. The Browns throw the ball a lot, and Anderson throws it well to his many available weapons. Predictably, he gets picked once in a while, but he more than makes up for it with a lot of big scoring throws and big yardage totals.

RB Lewis: Not quite the fantasy star he once was, but still a big touchdown threat. If you want the scores but not the yardage, keep him in.

WR Edwards: The Division's best big play receiver so far in 2007. If only he wouldn't drop an easy one about once a game.

WR Jurevicius: Solid possession receiver who, because Cleveland makes its living through the air, is a decent third wide out to play in an injury situation. He doesn't come up big every week, but with a favorable schedule, you'll be glad you played him when he does come up big.

TE Winslow: Still has not realized his full fantasy potential. A safe bet to bring in decent numbers. Anderson doesn't rely on him in the redzone the way Tony Romo relies on Jason Witten in Dallas or Roethlisberger depends on Miller in Pittsburgh. Edwards and Lewis steal a lot of TDs. Still an elite talent and a weekly must start.

K Dawson: A steady, veteran kicker. He's not going to break any distance records, but he doesn't miss often, and he's getting plenty of attempts in Cleveland's high-octane offense.

Browns Defense: Unless you have to choose between this unit and Cincinnati's, don't bother.

Baltimore Ravens

Strengths: The Ravens field the 3rd- ranked run defense in the league, and are getting good production out of RB Willis McGahee. Beyond that, there isn't much to celebrate in Baltimore. WR Derrick Mason is still a threat, but inconsistency at the quarterback position has kept him from putting up big numbers. There are still several bonafide defensive stars on the roster, but many have lost a step and the unit isn't playing with the cohesion and consistency of years past. Matt Stover is still one of the league's best kickers, but he can only do so much.

Weaknesses: Steve McNair's inability to stay healthy is often spun by analysts as "toughness". McNair's a tough guy, to be sure, but every NFL QB takes a beating and few miss as much time or get as much press for their aches and pains as the former Tennessee Titan. He isn't the answer under center, and neither is Kyle Boller. Todd Heap is one of the league's best tight ends when he's on the field. Unfortunately for the Ravens, he hasn't been of late. All of this translates to the same old offensive woes the Ravens have always had to contend with, but their once-vaunted defense can no longer pick up the slack. Age and injuries have turned a feared defensive unit into a respectable but vulnerable one, and the high-powered offenses of their AFC North rivals are finding the chinks in the armor with alarming regularity.

Upcoming Schedule: Cleveland, San Diego, New England, Indianapolis, Seattle, Pittsburgh… it's hard to imagine a tougher road for a team that is already reeling. At least they have a road trip to Miami in Week 15 to look forward to. Of course, it'll just be for pride by that point.

Predictions: It's time for the Baltimore Ravens to admit that it's over. The days of compensating for a mediocre offense with a great defense are gone, because the defense, though still good, is no longer elite. Brian Billick better get ready to face up to the dreaded "R" word - rebuilding - or start packing. His team and his job security are not what they were five years ago, and if he and the rest of the organization don't realize it soon, things are only going to get worse. Cincinnati's abysmal defense may keep the Ravens out of the basement, but they're still looking at 6-10 for 2007.

Fantasy Impact:

QB McNair/Boller: Stay clear of these two. Boller isn't consistent enough on the field, and McNair isn't there often enough to justify a roster spot. If you have one of them, drop him.

RB McGahee: Watch his injury status, as he was hurt against the Steelers. The best fantasy player on this team right now. Start him if you have him, and pray that the defense doesn't repeat its embarrassing performance against Pittsburgh so he'll get his carries.

WR Mason / Clayton: If necessary, a viable third receiver. But don't start either unless you just have no one else available. Who's going to throw to either of them?

TE Heap: Broken. If he can come back, he'll be worth picking up. Until then, he's dead weight.

K Stover: Still a reliable guy, but the anemic offense doesn't give him enough opportunities. He's not likely to kick any 55-yarders, either.

Ravens Defense: This unit is still worth holding onto and starting, although they are looking at a lot of big-play offenses in the next month or so. At the very least, you can count on them to play tough against the run.

Cincinnati Bengals

Strengths: Despite Chad Johnson's woes, the Cincy receiving corps is still elite. T.J. Houshmanzadeh may have a bit of an attitude, but he has emerged as a legitimate playmaker and the guy who will likely send Johnson packing in the off-season. Glenn Holt filled in nicely for the suspended Chris Henry, who is now ready to rejoin the team on the field. Carson Palmer is having a good season statistically, despite their 2-6 record through Week 9. Palmer is tough, and he's matured considerably over the last couple of seasons. Shayne Graham is a reliable, if not spectacular, kicker.

Weaknesses: Put plainly, the Bengals' defense is awful. 32nd in points allowed, 31st in yards allowed, and 28th in both passing and rushing yards surrendered - in a division with Pittsburgh and Cleveland, no less. They rank 7th in the league in tackles, which means that they are allowing opponents to sustain drives and are not getting off the field. Compounding this problem is their lackluster running game, which has been hamstrung by an injury to Rudi Johnson. Worst of all, however, is the fact that the team seems to have lost the swagger coach Marvin Lewis has worked so hard to instill in them. They still talk trash and act out after big plays, but the losing attitude that plagued the franchise through the 1990s can be seen creeping back in with each defeat. Hit hardest of all by this is Chad Johnson, who is obviously unhappy and is dropping more big catches than he's making of late.

Upcoming Schedule: The good news for the Bengals is that they have a relatively light schedule ahead. Baltimore, Arizona, St. Louis, San Francisco, and Miami all offer hope for a team desperate for wins. On the other hand, a visit from Tennessee and rematches with Cleveland and Pittsburgh must look about as much fun as a root canal to Palmer and company.

Predictions: A 7-9 finish is still feasible if the Bengals can capitalize on the weak offenses of most of their remaining opponents. Then again, this team has so much talent on offense that they shouldn't be so far below .500 at this point in the year in the first place. A more likely scenario is 6-10 or 5-11 and some retooling, including trading "Ocho-Cinco" right before the draft, in the off-season.

Fantasy Impact:

QB Palmer: A very good fantasy QB. Their defensive problems on the field are actually a plus for the owner who has Palmer, since he is forced to air it out a lot.

RB R. Johnson / Watson: Even if Johnson can stay healthy, the Bengals aren't running the ball much nowadays. That may change against the likes of St. Louis and Miami, but it's a bit of a gamble to start Johnson or Watson if there is a viable alternative available.

WR C. Johnson: If you have him as your number one, you are probably disappointed with the emergence of TJ Houshmanzadeh . Johnson can still go for 200 yards and 3 touchdowns on any given week. Honestly, if someone were willing to give you value, you could look to trade him for the right price. However, the offense and schedule are too good to abandon him all together

WR Houshmanzadeh: A big time fantasy threat who should be starting every week.

WR Holt/Henry: It's hard to say whether Henry will step in and reclaim his number three spot or lose it to the hungry Holt. Rumors of a parking lot altercation on the eve of Henry's return cast further doubt on his value. Unless Johnson gets benched, however, neither figures to be a factor in every game.

K Graham: The Bengals do score a lot, so Graham gets a lot of PAT attempts. He's a keeper.

Bengals Defense: No. Period. Playing this unit is a bit like starting a defensive team that's on a bye week.

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