Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

Is Brett Favre playing smarter in 2007?

By Derek Lofland.

One of the things that people have noticed about Brett Favre this season is how much smarter he is playing with the ball.  Brett Favre brought up a very interesting point in his press conference.  He says that might be the case, but in his opinion he is preparing for each game and going through the same decision making process that he has for most of his career.  He felt the biggest difference between this season from 2005 and 2006 is that the Packers have been competitive in every game.  He hasn’t been forced to lead the offense back from double-digit deficits so far in the 2007 campaign.

One thing you have to realize about players is that whether it is true or not, professional athletes will rarely admit that they prepare for teams differently.  Look what happened to Rex Grossman when he said he didn’t prepare for the New Years game last season differently, because it was New Year’s Eve.  Brett Favre is a seasoned veteran that is perfectly aware that every word he says is scrutinized.  I believe he prepares for a game the same way when he is 2-10 as when he is 10-2.  He is one of the greatest competitors in the history of sports.  However, he is still human.  It is hard to be excited to play on Sunday, when you have no shot of being competitive.  This is especially true of a seasoned veteran that has won a Super Bowl and been successful throughout his career.  Even if he didn’t prepare as well in 2005 and 2006, he wouldn’t be stupid enough to admit it and cause a media controversy.

Still, does he have a point or did it take two losing seasons for him to realize he can’t force the ball into stupid places?  Is he just starting to get it?  I find that hard to believe.  I don’t think you become a smarter player in your 17th year than you were in your 16th year.  However, I don’t just take players at their word.  I looked at the statistics and found some very interesting things.

1) Quarterbacks need a top defense to be successful – There are always exceptions to the rule.  Carson Palmer is the good exception in Cincy.  Rex Grossman is the not so good exception in Chicago.  However, I don’t think it’s a big secret that QBs play better when they are ahead than when they are behind.  I looked at Brett’s stats in the following manner:  From 1993 to 1998 and from 2001 to 2003, Brett Favre had the luxury of playing with a defense that was in the top 12 in scoring defense.  In those years, he had 286 touchdowns to 155 interceptions.  His average QB rating was an 89.9.  That means that in 1992, 1999-2000, and 2004-2006 Favre played with a defense ranked lower than 12th.  Favre had 128 touchdowns to 116 interceptions.  His average rating was 79.0.  The only year he played poorly with a good defense was 1993.  He had 19 touchdowns, 24 interceptions, and a rating of 72.2.  The Packers defense was 9th in scoring defense.  However, that was Brett’s second season as the Packer’s starting QB.  He has clearly evolved since those early years.

2) Favre has had 2 consecutive bad seasons twice in his career - Once was 1999-2000 and the other was 2005-2006.  In 1999-2000, he had 42 touchdowns to 39 interceptions.  He had ratings of 74.7 and 78.0.  In 2005-2006, he had 38 touchdowns and 47 interceptions.  He had ratings of 70.9 and 72.7.  What do those two stretches have in common?  In 1999 and 2000, the Packers ranked 20th and 14th in scoring defense.  In 2005 and 2006, the Packers ranked 20th and 25th in scoring defense.  Those just happen to be 4 of the 6 worse defenses Brett Favre has played with in his career.  The others were 1992, his first season as a starter (he played with Sterling Sharpe) and 2004.  I’ll get back to 2004 in a second.  What changed in 2001 that allowed Favre’s numbers to shoot back up for a 3-year period?  Ahman Green introduced to the running game and the defense going from 20th in 1999 to 14th in 2000 to 5th in 2001.    Favre’s numbers shot back up in 2001 to 32 touchdowns, 15 interceptions, a 94.1 QB rating and second in the MVP voting.  While it is still very early, if he maintains his early 2007 start, he would put up very similar numbers this season.

3) How can Carson Palmer put up good numbers with a bad defense? – Carson Palmer has never played with a defense ranked higher than 17th.  How can he put up such good numbers?  Very simple, Johnson, Johnson, and TJ.  If you are going to have a bad defense, you can still put up good numbers, but you had better have weapons that can make plays despite the fact that you are being forced to throw the ball.  Brett had a year like that.  The anomaly in his stats is 2004.  Despite playing with the 23rd scoring defense, Favre had 30 touchdowns to 17 interceptions and a rating of 92.4.  Why was he successful that year?  There were a couple reasons.  That was the season where the Packers started off 1-4, gave up 28.4 points per game, and had 40+ points scored on them twice in that stretch.  The last 11 games of the season the defense gave up a more respectable 21.4 points per game.  The other thing that happened were Walker and Driver combing for 21 touchdowns and both having over 1200 yards.  Green had a 1,000-yard plus season.  The offense had so many weapons that year, that Favre was able to succeed, similar to Palmer and Bulger with bad defenses.  It’s pretty hard to survive with one Pro Bowl receiver, an injured running game, and a poor defense.  This is what Favre was asked to in 1999-2000 and 2005-2006.

In 2005, Favre’s worst season as a pro it is no coincidence that 491 of the 607 passes he threw were when the Packers were tied or behind.  221 of those 491 passes were with the Packers down 9 or more points.  If you look at this season, the Packers have the 8th best scoring defense in the league.  The Packers beat the Eagles 16-13, the Giants 35-14, and the Chargers 31-24.   I think the most they have trailed by this season is 4 points.  That has allowed Favre to play more conservatively and the result is 6 touchdowns, 2 picks, and a 93.4 rating.  Is Brett making better decisions?  Absolutely.  However, it is easier to make better decisions and not force things when the score is manageable.  Favre can take the safe check down throw and punt the ball.  When you are behind 10 or more points, the defense knows you have to throw the ball down field and can adjust their defense accordingly.  When you combine that with a lack of playmakers, you get Favre’s 2005 season.

The best point I heard Favre make is when he talked about Drew Brees.  He said that it’s no accident that Brees is having so many picks with the scores so lopsided.  He said that he has been through seasons like that and it isn’t easy.  Here is the stat breakdown on Drew Brees: 
In 2006, Brees had 26 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and a 96.2 rating.  The Saints ranked 13th in scoring defense in 2006.  Their 6 losses were by an average of 8.8 points per game.  This season the Saints have the 31st ranked scoring defense.  They are losing their games by an average of 21.7 points per game.  Is it any accident that Brees has 1 touchdown, 7 picks, and a rating of 57.1?

I can’t believe that Brees forgot how to play QB.  Had last season been his first and only good season, I would say the defense watched film and adjusted.  Last year was his 3rd consecutive Pro Bowl Caliber season.  When he was successful in San Diego, they had the 13th and 11th scoring defense in the league.  In 2002 and 2003, when he was in danger of losing his job in San Diego, the Chargers had the 31st and 22nd ranked scoring defense.

Because football is a team sport, it is hard to say who is responsible for what.  Do the Saints have the 31st ranked scoring defense, because the offense is ranked 27th in scoring?  Maybe the Saints have the 27th ranked scoring offense, because the defense is ranked 31st?  I would say that it is a little bit of both.  The offense isn’t exploding out to a fast start and allowing the defense to play with a lead.  However, the defense never gets off the field without giving up points, and the offense never gets to play with a sizeable lead.

In most cases, the units have to work together otherwise they both suffer.  Otherwise, you need the Bengals offense, or the Ravens and Bears defense.  A team where one side of the ball is so good that it allows the team to be competitive despite the shortcomings on the other side of the ball.  Rarely are teams like that successful year after year.

 
There are 4 reasons that Brett Favre is playing better in 2007,
1) The Packers finally have more than Donald Driver in the receiving game.  Franks, Lee, Jones, and Jennings are giving Favre other places to deliver the football,
2) While the running backs aren’t producing big numbers, they aren’t fumbling the ball away, putting the team in a rough spot.  Green was a great running back, but the Packers are not missing his fumbles,
3) The defense is forcing turnovers and getting stops.  This is allowing the offense to be patient and not try to score 21 points in a quarter,
4) The Packers are getting good field position in the kickoff and punt game, allowing them to have good field position on both sides of the ball.