Swing for the Fences

It is only April

Nomo’s ERA will approach five at some point and Tom Glavine will some games. Mark Grudzielanek will not lead the league in home runs, and Mark McGwire will eventually launch one or 60 bombs this year. Statistics have a way of evening out by definition.

Important rules of thumb to remember early in the season follow:

** Don’t overreact and cut loose someone you’ll regret losing later this season. Quilvio Veras is hitting under .100 but is a solid second-sacker with some speed. He is better than David Eckstein, the hot hitting Angel prospect filling in for Adam Kennedy. Offering to trade for Osvaldo Fernandez by giving up Kevin Millwood would also not be prudent at this time.

** Jump on guys who are typically slow starters if they are hot now. The perfect example of this last year was James Baldwin. The guy was on fire last April and May and put up huge first-half numbers for the White Sox. Baldwin was always known as a slow starter but those who jumped on him early reaped the rewards. This year, a guy like Tony Clark could be on pace for big numbers with his fast start out of the gate.

** Pay attention to injuries. Big Mac has been hurt already. Chances are he’ll be hurt again, possibly often. His value could be high to others and you might be able to pull off a great trade if you play it right. On the flip side, Ugueth Urbina appears to have returned to form after his long layoff last season. He is going to be as solid a closer as there is in the National League, and if traded, could be the best.

** Let them prove it for a while. Cris Carpenter has been a good prospect for a long time. Each of the past three seasons, we’ve heard how this is going to be his year. This spring, we didn’t hear much about Carpenter because he was so bad last season. Now out of the gates, he tossed a gem and is being picked up across leagues. Fine to take a chance on him but don’t do it at the expense of a proven performer. Carpenter and other guys like him (Tino Martinez, Mike Darr) will make you pay if you jump on the bandwagon too soon.

** Watch for early PT. Many guys came into the season looking at platoon situations. However some are performing so well they may end up getting the majority of at-bats. Placido Polanco has looked sharp early on at third base for the Cardinals. Rico Brogna is hitting well in Atlanta. While these guys aren’t top notch performers, they could be serviceable backups for injured stars.

** Don’t worry too much about your place in the rankings. Time will tell who will rise to the top. Of course, you don’t want to fall too far behind but look realistically at your squad. If key players are underachieving (Alex Rodriguez), you know they’ll bounce back, and with them, your squad.

Of course, we all have to take chances to win in fantasy baseball. Those that take the best chances at the right times are those that will come out on top more often than not. Following common sense mostly and not letting your emotions get the best of you early will keep you from potential pratfalls. Enjoy the season, baseball is here.