Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

Do not fear the "Three-headed" monster!!!

Straight from the Doc's mailbag, an interesting topic.

Dear Dr X, first I want to say I like your website very much. I can tell this is more than a hobby for you. My question is about your Mayice Jones-Drew's #12 rank for the 2007 RBs. I am hopeful that your prediction is correct for the sake of my fantasy team. (My RB2). Do you think the early draft round pick of Greg Jones, and Fan Favorite Fred will slow down jones-Drew? Alliteration aside, I'm scared Jones-Drew will see the end zone less this season. I do think he will slowly be put into the spotlight as the go-to guy, but Greg Jones is who scares me the most. My questions are:

Do you think Greg Jones wil steal most of the goal-line looks? Do you think Maurice Jones-Drew is a good choice for a RB1? (I have another draft that I might grab Manning with if I get 9th-12th pick). Thank you, Zach

Dear Zach, you are correct when you say this is more than a hobby for me. I like a true MANIAX, live football and am enamored by its fantasy aspect. Helping out FFballers gives me a great sense of satisfaction. I know that sometimes my advice may turn out to be wrong, but who ever said that predicting player’s performances was an exact science?

I could simply answer “I like MJD in ‘07” and am standing by my prediction, but that wouldn’t satisfy you, would it?
I’m positive about you wanting me to be convincing with my answer and since I had been thinking about writing an article about MJD soon, I said to myself; what better occasion to put some laziness aside and get started on it?

Listen, you said it yourself, he’s mostly considered a RB2, so who else do you have on your list with most upside and a little NFL experience?
I’m not suggesting making MJD your #1 back unless you are in a dynasty league. Every time a chance for a RBBC arises in any NFL team is cause for serious concern. Your worries about Fred Taylor and Greg Jones are more than legitimate. I disagree with you when you say that he will be slowly put into the spotlight in ’07.
That already happened in 2006, Zach. One of my favorite quotes is “If it ain’t broke. Don’t fix it”. Now, that may not match Mr. Del Rio’s school of thought, but besides being unwise not to give MJD the majority of carries there are a couple of factors that should not be overlooked when analyzing the Jaguars’ RB supposed-trio.

Greg Jones’ promising career was cut short by an ACL injury that caused him to miss all of the 2006 season. I’m sure you know about the way Carl Ripken Jr’s long career started. By making the most of the opportunities when called upon to replace the then- starter and never look back. That’s how! We also know that playing well after coming back from an injury is not an easy feat. Do you think the Jaguars will want to waste their TD opportunities by experimenting with Jones? Of course, we still have to see how preseason play unfolds for Jones, but I don’t have a good feeling about him in ’07. He has been quoted as saying that it took a full three years to regain his burst after his last ACL tear. It has only been one year since his latest serious injury. The second factor is, to me, Fred Taylor’s advanced (by RB standards) age. Please refer to my RBs by age list!  Besides, what are the chances for “Fragile” Fred to be “Un-fragile” for another full season? Very slim, wouldn’t you say?

Overall, I’d say that even if either Taylor or Jones steal some goal line looks, he might still end up getting similar numbers to the ones he produced in ’06. Remember that he had some TDs taken away last year by Fred. The fact that only one player per play gets to carry the ball is my fortifying thought about the futility of this sharing concern. In essence, it won’t matter who’ll take those looks but the fact that no matter who takes them will prove irrelevant to MJD’s numbers (like ‘06) is. MJD showed he could score from anywhere last year, meaning he didn’t need goal line touches to accumulate points.

Some experts have a split opinion on MJD’s ’07 potential success or lack of thereof. Some say that, in fact, that Taylor and Jones will affect his success along with opposing teams stacking the box on him.
Byron Leftwich and his underperforming wide receivers don’t exactly keep a defensive coordinator honest.
I am of the opinion that nothing will slow MJD down. I believe teams tried to gameplan MJD last year as well to no avail. The Jaguars’ OL is that good and MJD will make the most out of his touches, again!
Others claim that the hiring of offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter will fit MJD’s style of running best. I agree with the second statement.

Again, MJD as RB1 might be a stretch for seasonal leagues, even though I wouldn’t hesitate to gamble on him as a number 1 depending on my sobriety status. Just kidding.
In my league, last year, someone grabbed Peyton at #3 overall, but realistically he may drop to you at 9-12. I’m not so sure that’s a good drafting strategy, but someone will inevitably use it every year and you may give it a shot if so you should consider it. Just be sure to grab a couple of decent “Best available” players on the boards in round 3 and 4 to make up for the inevitable lack of depth at RB that drafting Manning so high will cause. That scenario is a perfect one to illustrate the drafting of MJD as a RB1.

Let us know what you decide and do not, we repeat, DO NOT fear the much publicized “Three-headed” monster. It just does not exist.

For a more detailed and personalized analisys on your teams, drop a comment at www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com or email your Doc at fantasydrx@yahoo.com