KingFish Tales

Patience, When to deal!

Patience, When to deal!
Written by Karl Fischer

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away, know when to run
You never count your money when you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for countin', when the dealin's done.
Kenny Rogers

The above verse from the Kenny Rogers song, “Gambler”, aptly describes when an owner should make or not make a deal. All to often I have met owners that either want to see more of spring training or wait until after the winter management meetings or wait until after the ML trading deadline or wait until after the All Star game before even considering making a deal. I have also come into contact with owners, much like myself, that will make a deal just because, regardless of time, day, month or year. Either of these two extreme approaches don’t really bode well for the guilty owners.

In the case of waiting until things are clearer, the owner doing the waiting is missing all those wonderful trade opportunities made so readily available by the deal-o-matic type owners. This conservative approach can be painful to the extreme in today’s baseball environment. With the continuing movement of players between the AL, NL and MLB teams, the situations that exist that add or subtract value for a specific player are in a dynamic and constant flux. There are no constants. Owning a Super Star, Star, Above Average or even Joe Average player today is no guarantee that is what they will be tomorrow. Case in point in my NL only league. The owner of Carl Everett was banking on this keeper to bring him big numbers that season. This was back when Everett was a Stro and at the time the Astros seemed primed to make deals to move salary but still remain competitive. The possibility of Everett not being in the owners mix wasn’t a consideration. The assumption, even from the experts, was that Alou, Bell and possibly a starting pitcher would be made available. We all know how that worked out. The owner of Everett in our league had received inquiries concerning potential trades early on after the end of the 99 season. The owner declined to deal one of his and I quote, “Cornerstone players”. Not that there wasn’t good talent offered, at good keeper prices but at the time it did not seem like enough. The point made clearly here though is that, no one is a lock. Let me repeat that, “NO ONE IS A LOCK!” Hindsight, being the wonderful teacher it is, should point out the fallacy and pitfalls of considering a player to be untouchable or at least unavailable on your team without an overwhelming offer having to be made.

On the other side of the coin at 7:58 p.m. “Mr. I’ll make a Trade” before 8:00 p.m. tonight, no matter what, can also suffer grave damage to both his team and his mental health. It’s this reality that has pushed me over the edge and driven me to take up spreading the good word on dealing in the fantasy baseball world. Because I fall solidly in the camp of trade-aholics, I cannot tell you how many times I have regretted making a deal, usually about 10 seconds after the thrill of the deal starts to wear off. Don’t snicker at the “thrill of the deal” comment either. Trading can become an obsession just like drinking and gambling. You become driven to trade, not for the improvement of your team or any clearly set goals or even to support some vague general strategy. I’ve learned the hard way that is what I must protect against. Do I still deal? You betcha, over a half a dozen in one league so far during this past off-season alone. I might mention that this is quite an improvement over the past when I have made as many as fourteen off-season and twelve in season trades! Is that something to brag about? Not really and there are two deals I made during the bleak winter months between 1999 and 2000 that should not have been made. Have I learned from it? I hope, as I ended up owning Vladimir Guerrero at way low dollars. That’s tantamount to handing a compulsive gambler a no limit credit line when we start talking compulsive trade-a-holic. Will I continue to deal? Well to be honest I don’t think I’ll be changing here real quick. It’s kind of hard teaching this old dog some new tricks. Once you get the “trading whore” nickname or the “Monty Hall” of the league it would be difficult to shed it. It is important for you to know that if you think you are this type of “Dealer”, guess what? So do the other sharp owners in your league. A tactic they may employ, from time to time, will be to simply float multiple deals at you. Sometimes these offers are coordinated with a third of even fourth owner. They’re looking to overload your circuits, or to keep you so involved with trades you forget to even look at the waiver wire, or miss a hot prospect or make a real dumb move.

What have I learned? I believe I’m on the road to recovery. Writing this down is helping, talking to all the folks on the Internet lets me know I’m not alone and there is a cure. It’s called “Patience” or proceed with caution, slow down a minute, do your homework, check it a second time, don’t just react to a counter offer with a quick yes or no. Research a lot and then do some more. Then and only then make the deal. The key thing to keep in mind is, “Know what type of owner you are” and “Know what type of owner you are dealing with”. If you can determine just these two simple things accurately, your chances of being in the money, making a sound trade or even wearing the crown at the end of the season are certain to improve. Be Patient and then pull that trigger!

So Sayeth the Fish!
Ya Wanna’ trade?