Fantasy Baseball : A Closer Appraisal : KingFish Tales

A Closer Appraisal
Written by Karl Fischer
Originally written 7/2000 and revised 2/2002

It seems as the new decade begins the old axiom of get a stud closer has fallen on hard times. There are many different opinions as to why this has come about. Those old reliable, put them in the bank Closers seem to be an endangered species in today�s environment. Let�s take a look at the numbers for what this season�s crop of Closers including yesterday�s premier, stud �Closers� have produced to date this season (2000).

I�m was looking back at this article I wrote at the half way point of the 2000 season and it points out a lot of valid questions. Good or bad assessments? Are 1st halves versus 2nd half assessments valuable? What is the real value of the Closer? Can they be counted on? In salary leagues is the high bid really necessary? Is the true Closer really an endangered species as I stated in the opening? These questions and more need close scrutiny by the baseball analyst. Just where do we go from here? My original work included a lot of AL closers and wanna be�s in an effort on my part to prepare for a mixed league that I got involved with. Sorry but I�m not going there this year and the below will focus on NL only. I left the names in the groups that I originally slotted them in so you could see where I missed the boat. Mesa is a fine example but can it last? All of my 2002 comments are in Italics! Enjoy

The Cream of the Crop

Antonio Alfonseca Marlins

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	32	0	33.2	44	20	19	5	12	28	2	4	20	5.08

Now I know we are very baseball knowledgeable people. Each and every one of us that had those 20 Saves in mind and we all picked good old Six Fingers to be leading the major leagues in Saves, right? Not! That 5.08 ERA and almost 1.69 ratio, is scary though isn�t it? It would take a strong ERA/Rat Roto staff to absorb these numbers to get those 20 saves. Who could of believed a reliever on a team that didn�t project to get much run support actually got enough chances to get 20 in a half a season yet? Not me and I just don�t see another 20+ from here on out but I guess anything is possible. At least he can�t catch the mumps again like he did in preseason. He ended the 2000 season with a mind numbing 45 saves! Note that he�s still there doing the job. Will it continue? Here�s his latest numbers from last season;

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	58	0	61.2	68	24	21	6	15	40	4	4	28	6	.281	3.06

Quite obviously much better ERA and ratio. Saves for an entire 2001 season barely exceeded one half of 2000 though. The real-deal? Well I hear tell that 2003 is his arbitration eligibility year. Will the Marlins fork out the bucks with the turmoil of contraction swirling around them? The lack of a potent Marlin offense behind him really limits his opportunity for saves. His ratio of blown saves to saves is not very good either. A stud? Hmmm, perhaps we should look a little farther before making that judgment for 2002.

Trevor Hoffman Padres

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	28	0	27.2	21	9	8	3	3	41	0	2	17	2.60

Now we are talking about the one guy that everyone knew was going to produce and he is arguably the only one of yesterday�s studs to really have lived up to the hype. If the Pods could only score a few more runs and generate a few more chances here is the guy that could win the Rolaids award for Fireman of the Year (every year!) With the ERA and Ratio numbers to drool over and that 41 K�s in just 27.2 innings just what more could you ask for? Now can he keep it up? I see no reason not to think so. He is the man in the NL. That 3 hr�s. may be pause for a bit of concern but what the heck, for someone that�s always around the plate these things will happen and I see no degradation in skills to worry about. He�s happy, healthy and one hell of a Closer! Still banging them away and closing the door on a regular basis but perhaps father time is creeping up on him?

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	62	0	60.1	48	25	23	10	21	63	3	4	43	3	.216	3.43

Note that the old ERA and HR�s starting to creep up there? Still strong in the saves department but that may be closely related to a recently improved Pods offense with Mr�s. Klesco and Nevin picking it up a notch or two. He actually blew 3 saves which is almost unheard of in his recent history. You have to think there are a few more good seasons to come from this stud closer. Probably one of very few closers still worth the big bid or the early round draft pick. Even more help on the way for the offense this season in the form of promising youngsters Burroughs and Jiminez. The young staff in front of him is much improved with Lawrence and Tollberg having good upsides. Eaton is down for the season but the Trevor�s opportunity for saves should increase slightly.

Jason Isringhausen

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	29	0	30.1	31	13	11	2	10	26	3	2	16	3.26

I�m still gun shy from past NL ownership experience. Kind of a, fooled me once but never will again, emotional restraint that I have against endorsing Izzie. Can�t argue with the 16 saves though. A resurrected career? Sure looks that way with decent K�s, a 3.26 ERA and a not to shabby 1.36 ratio. I never would have predicted this kind of performance from Izzy and strongly suspect that this, new positive trend, may change and change quickly. Why I was gun shy in the first place? Why in the world did the Cards go out and pick up a Dave Veres clone? Larussa going to go Closer by committee or is there another deal to follow?

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	65	0	71.1	54	24	21	5	23	74	4	3	34	9	.203	2.65

He returns for his second NL tour. Note that the IP�s/HR�s/Hits/ER are almost the same as if you doubled the first half 2000 numbers. At least he�s consistent. Those are some very good ERA and OPP AVG numbers though. The Cards are a team with some solid run producing offense with Drew, Pujols, Edmonds and Martinez to lead the way and Vina and Renteria providing speed, runs & RBI opp�s.. The save opportunities should be abundant with Kile, Morris, Williams and Bud Smith all able to go long innings and not give up many runs. Those nine blown saves came mostly in the second half though. Makes you think a bit doesn�t it?

Armando Benitez Mets

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	34	0	34	15	13	13	5	18	44	1	2	16	3.44

If it wasn�t for all those walks Benitez would be standing way above this group. The wildness has been costly as with 34 appearances this big time NL closer has only been able to scratch out 16 saves. Now I just can�t see that continuing and even though Franco is still in the pen I really do not see him as competition. With the warmer weather kicking in I would fully expect to se Armando get his game in gear. He still has an outside shot at getting 40 but he�ll have to do it without walking a bunch of guys. Still the man for the Mets.

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	73	0	76.1	59	32	32	12	40	93	6	4	43	3	.214	3.77

Well the walks are still to high for my personal tastes but no one has ever accused me of having good taste anyway. Benitez has to be considered a part of the upper tier of Closers in the NL but probably not a good early round or huge bid pick. Only three blown saves with a very good OPP AVG and a decent enough but higher than 2000 first half ERA. Still looks as if 40+ is a very good number especially with the revamped Mets offense providing lots of opportunities. I�d be willing to say the wins may go up a tad also.

The Disappointments- Who�ll come back to form?

The following groups are (were!) the disappointments (of the first half of 2000).
Billy Wagner Astros

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	28	0	27.2	28	19	19	6	18	28	2	4	6	6.18

Billy Wagner of all people is on the verge of losing their jobs,

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	64	0	62.2	44	19	19	5	20	79	2	5	39	2	.198	2.73

After signing that fat new multi year contract, can he stay healthy? Wagner simply cannot continue to get injured can he? It does appear that his health returned just in time to get that big money. Strange how that works out sometimes isn�t it? If he looses anything off of his heat this could be a disaster in the making at 10 Run field. If that opp avg. can stay below .200 for the season you�ll be loving every second of it. The improved young setup gun of Dotel in the Stros pen bodes well to keep Wagner a one inning only pitcher. The starting staff is bolstered this season with the addition of C. Hernandez to go along with W. Miller and Oswalt. You probably could not ask for a finer core of young pitching. The opportunities will only be limited by the Stros ability to score runs and that has been a problem that may be exaggerated this season by Alou leaving and both Biggio and Bags getting another year older.

Jeff Shaw Dodgers

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	26	0	24.2	33	20	18	4	7	15	2	3	12	6.57

Shaw ended up just losing his job in 2000. Now where does he go or is this homebody destined for retirement?He may round back into form but he continues worries me for sure.

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	77	0	74.2	63	32	30	10	18	58	3	5	43	9	.227	3.62

Shaw seems to have the pop back in his pitches but where will he pitch? Retirement has been mentioned more than once this off season as Jeff appears to be one of the rare birds that values his family and home life more than he does the love of the game or the big money opportunity. He would be a good pickup for almost any team but that possibility seems to be fading. To bad, as he seems to be a good guy.

Rob Nen Giants

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	26	0	24.1	17	11	7	2	11	27	1	3	10	2.59

Well I left him in the same group as I had originally projected him for 2001. Might as well be honest about it. I just was way worried about his continuing back problems at the time. Remember them?

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	79	0	77.2	58	28	26	6	22	93	4	5	45	7	.203	3.01

Why worry? These are stellar numbers. He is the man. You couldn�t ask for much more than perhaps a slight reduction in blown saves. He appeared to still be going strong at the end. I see no reason at this point not to include him in the NL elite. If you are going to blow an early round pick or bid the big bucks on a closer this is one of the very few in baseball much less the NL that fits the bill.

Matt Mantei D'Backs

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	14	0	11.2	15	15	15	4	13	12	1	1	2	11.57

Mantei is still throwing that 98 mph heat when healthy.

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	8	0	7	6	2	2	2	4	12	0	0	2	0	.222	2.57

Well it appears that he has begun throwing once again. Time will only tell and after the Series glitches that Kim ran into you have to imagine that the D�Backs will offer the opportunity to win the Closer job back. Can he stay healthy for any length of time? More and more the answer appears to be no but if he ever does he definitely has some nasty heat. The timetable for his return is still blank and that is a bleak prospect for 2002.

The above are big names and they can hurt their teams and ours. Why? Well that is a question that probably has a multitude of answers from physical to mental, poor team run production, wildness, mechanics, juiced baseball, mixed AL/NL umpiring, expanded strike zoneand the never ending debate over just where the strike zone is again this year. Anything can and will happen with these guys. It�s a crapshoot at this point and a huge gamble to bet on any of these guys really straightening out their game or getting healthy for 2001.

So what do you do? Give up on em? Waive em while they still have some value? Ride em on the bench for a while or stick em on the DL where they can�t hurt you? Pick them off the Waiver wire or go after them in a trade while their value is way low? Your guess may be as good as any. I�ve heard a lot of differences of opinion but this group except for Nen continues to have me worried. I still preach patience but there is a time to cut bait and head back to the dock. I still think that Nen can get (He has!) it together.

New faces/New jobs/Changing roles?

The new kids on the block!

Well now we can take a look at some fresh faces and some that still are developing. Amongst this group, that seems to show up on an annual basis, are the New Guns looking for a fight and battling their way into full time closer jobs. Veres put up good numbers, in Colorado of all places, last year and to date the Cards have not been disappointed in him. While the Rockies found his replacement in former Cardinals Jose (No Hit) Jiminez. Closers can come from the strangest places. Danny Graves continues to platoon with Williamson and has totaled up 8 wins to date. Kim has come on to rack up huge strikeouts and cover during the oft-injured Mantei�s absence. Although Graves, Williamson and Veres are not exactly new kids I like to think that none of them have reached their full potential yet and realistically they have a good chance of shedding the newness and rolling into being Veteran, reliable guys that can close a game on command. Well here they are!

Jose Mesa Mariners

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	27	0	34.1	44	25	25	6	16	38	2	7	1	6.55

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	71	0	69.1	65	26	18	4	20	59	3	3	42	4	.246	2.34

Does Jose now join the elite Studs in the NL? From 2001 numbers you would think so but look a bit deeper at those career numbers. Makes you think twice about, huh? Notice that the career ERA is a full two runs higher but his blown saves ratio improved for 2001. Has he finally found a comfort zone and the confidence to take command of games? Tough read of a mixed message in the numbers. I�m may be going out on the limb but I just do not see a repeat of last years sterling numbers. I wonder?

Byung-Hyun Kim Diamondbacks

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	27	0	33.1	19	8	7	2	12	56	2	3	9	1.89

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	78	0	98	58	32	32	10	44	113	5	6	19	4	2.94

While Kim did not figure to be the Closer in 2000 he still had 9 saves in the first half and went on filling in for Mantei. His post-season performance this last season certainly makes him very suspect. If Mantei is ready to go and healthy then you have to view Kim as a solid setup one-inning guy and not a true closer. If Mantei is not ready then Kim is a viable but suspect option. He had a very solid 2001 before the Series.

Jose Jimenez Rockies

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	29	0	29.1	29	11	11	1	11	19	4	0	11	3.38

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	56	0	55	56	27	25	6	22	37	6	1	17	5	.264	4.09

As you can see Jose�s first half 2000 numbers were very good except for the ratio. The numbers for 2001 were a slight improvement on that ratio but that 4.09 ERA is a sticky point. It has to be difficult enough to do this job. Imagine what it is like in Colorado?

Dave Veres Cardinals

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	31	0	33.1	25	11	11	2	7	29	0	2	13	2.97

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	71	0	65.2	57	29	27	12	28	61	3	2	15	4	.232	3.70

The ERA shot upward a full run from the 2000 numbers versus the 2001 numbers. Times have changed and not for the better in Dave�s case. Issringhausen as well as other potential closers crowd a strong bullpen. A trade perhaps? Certainly not as many opportunities unless everyone else involved goes in the tank.

Danny Graves Reds

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	30	0	45	33	12	10	3	24	27	8	1	9	2.00

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	66	0	80.1	83	41	37	7	18	49	6	5	32	7	.268	4.15

Solid 1st half 2000 numbers that stayed very consistent over the course of the season but 2001 was a much different story. Although he netted 30 saves in 2000 and 32 in 2001 that ERA took a major hit. He only gave up two more hits in 10 less innings and his walks dropped way down in 2001 versus 2000. So what gives? Well he gave up 11 more earned runs and only managed 6 wins in 2001 versus the 10 in 2000. Not sure how this will play out with Williamson coming back in and the two may switch roles with Graves going into a shaky rotation to allow Williamson time to recover. Cincy�s weak staff needs the shot in the arm that Graves may provide but then who closes? Sullivan perhaps? The guy has an over used arm but still has decent stuff.

Scott Williamson Reds

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	34	0	50.1	36	14	14	1	38	75	2	3	6	2.50

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	2	0	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	.333	0.00

The bad news of giving up far to many walks in the first half of 2000 led right into a major injury that curtailed his 2001 season after only going two thirds of one inning pitched. Still very young you have to like his chances at a full recovery and it is more, when it will happen and not will it happen that must be considered. I�d expect tender loving care and a slow comeback even thought the Reds may be tempted to push him. That would not be a wise decision on their part.

Steve Kline Expos

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	37	0	39	28	6	6	2	14	31	1	1	6	1.38

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	89	0	75	53	16	15	3	29	54	3	3	9	1	.203	3.41

Well the last time I checked he was still part of the crowded St. Louis pen situation. With Stephenson most likely needing a couple of short work outings before going back into a quality rotation when he is healthy and with Issringhausen and Veres soaking up the saves I would not expect many opportunities to close unless the Cards pull the trigger yet on another deal.

The Rest

And then there�s the rest. There are some decent numbers being put up by this group (remember 1st half of 2000 comments!). Williams for the Pirates is putting up some decent numbers in a bullpen by committee approach favored by the Pirates. Some are coming off of injury rehab ala Ligtenberg or at the end of a long career like Franco but all will put up some numbers and any may fill in to be full time closers in the future should the opportunity present itself.

Mike Williams Pirates

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	29	0	30	22	9	6	3	13	34	2	1	9	1.80

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	65	0	64	60	28	27	9	35	59	6	4	22	3	.244	3.80

Back with the Bucs this off-season after a brief stint with the Stro�s. Decent enough numbers and I would expect the same to continue. Not as many opportunities as the big names get with that anemic Bucs offense providing little run support but still an acceptable option.

Wayne Gomes Phillies

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	34	0	39.1	35	19	16	5	20	24	3	4	6	3.66

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	55	0	63	72	37	37	7	29	52	6	3	1	4	.294	5.29

Still with the Giants last time I looked and with these numbers (to many BB�s) and with the presence of Nen and Rodriguez it is doubtful he will be given a shot at the Closer role in the near future barring injury or trade. Even then there are other more qualified arms in most pen�s than him. Probably the last time you will the words Closer and Gomes in the same sentence but I�ve seen stranger things happen in this game.

John Franco Mets

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	28	0	28.1	24	11	10	3	9	26	2	2	2	3.18

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	58	0	53.1	55	25	24	8	19	50	6	2	2	5	.264	4.05

John�s days as a closer are long behind him. They were in 2000 and even more so in 2002
.
Kerry Ligtenberg Braves

YR	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	ERA
2000	22	0	21.1	19	8	8	3	7	17	2	1	4	3.38

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	53	0	59.2	50	22	20	4	30	56	3	3	1	1	.226	3.02

Kerry�s potential still makes him appealing. Even with the health issue you have to wonder if he is the man they call on if Smoltz goes down or is needed to return to the rotation.

New on the Scene not covered in 2000!

John Smoltz Braves

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	36	5	59	53	24	22	7	10	57	3	3	10	.238	3.36

Smoltz as a Closer, huh? Who would of thunk it with these numbers?If Eck can do it why not John? I mean we�re talking about a horse of a starting pitcher that has under gone a transformation. He only picked up 10 saves in 2001 but I think this may be only the beginning of a big time Closer being born. Remember a few years ago when John was having some mental problems that effected his performance? Hopefully the pressure and the environment that a Closer must live in does not bring that problem back to the forefront. I don�t think it will.

Todd Jones Colorado

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	69	0	68	87	39	32	9	29	54	5	5	13	8	.312	4.24

Former AL Closer with decent career numbers but slipped in 2001. Now in Rockie land and the slide may continue. Approach with caution!

Curtis Leskanic Mil

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	70	0	69.1	63	30	28	11	31	64	2	6	17	7	.241	3.63

Don�t pay much attention to the career numbers in this case. He had a case of Rockie fever that took him a while to get over. Tough when a breaking ball specialist pitches where breaking balls don�t break. Now he�s with the Brewers and Wickman is gone. Does he have all the right stuff to be a major Closer? I think not but he may be an acceptable and much cheaper alternative. Now I�m hearing of a potential injury problem and C. Fox volunteering to step up to the bar.

Octavio Dotel Houston

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	61	4	105	79	35	31	5	47	145	7	5	.205	2.26

Closer wanna-be that throws hard. Needs to work on control but I see a youngster biting at the bit to get out on the mound to prove himself. Of course Billy boy stands in his way but there is always that lingering health question regardless of the big new contract. Enron must be taken into account also and it may be a bit risky going to Dotel at this point. Then again how do you ever pick sleepers if you do not take risk?

Matt Herges Los Angeles

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	75	0	99.1	97	39	38	8	46	76	9	8	.259	3.44

Closer by default? Shaw and Adams are both long gone. The Dodgers pen is in a bit of a mess at this point and it may fall upon him to take the job. His innings pitched and number of games will give the Dodgers trouble as well unless they can find a real Closer somewhere else.

Scott Strickland Montreal

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	77	0	81.1	67	36	29	9	41	85	2	6	9	3	.222	3.21

Only 25 years old yet it seems he has been around forever. The Closer of the future? Hmmmm, nice OPP and ERA but .5 walks every inning needs a bit of improvement in my mind. The contraction talks and possible relocation of the entire team may also come into play. We�ll see I guess but I do like his chances.

Are there other guys? Most certainly, Rodriguez SFG, Fetters, Looper, V. Nunez, Sullivan, Quantrill are just a few examples. Here�s a 2002 real deep Closer Sleeper for you.

Josh Fogg Pittsburgh

STATS	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	SV	BLSV	OPP AVG	ERA
2001	11	0	13.1	10	3	0	3	17	0	0	0	0	.208	2.03

Now there�s a real baseball name for you. Why is he a deep Sleeper you might ask? A couple of reasons really. Switching leagues at a real young age is one. Look at the numbers is another. Seventeen K�s in 13 IP�s! Only 3 BB�s! A ratio of one, an OPP and ERA right at two! Come on what more would you want? He�s also on a team that makes a continual habit of bullpen by committee, so why not? Well he is young and inexperienced youthful pitching can bite you real hard. If you can protect him, do so and hope for the best. If he can continue putting up numbers like this it will not be long before everyone knows his name. If he doesn�t he will fade back out of the spotlight just like so many countless others.

Now I�m sure that all the above made it crystal clear just how infallible most methods are for picking that Closer Stud(Oh sure Fish!). With the exception of Nen and perhaps Hoffman, it appears there are no sure things once again. This is a litany I continue to hear year in and year out when it comes to Closers. Here we are two seasons later and listen to what I said at the All-Star break 2000, �I�m slowly but surely being converted to the school of thought that no Closer is worth the big bid or early pick�. Seemed like a good idea in the 2nd half of the 2000 season and nothing has happened since then to change my mind. The reliability factor seems to have swung to the extreme (still holds true!) this year as the turnover rate seems to be coming in fast and furious. A couple of flyers on Closer Wannabe�s may have been the better preseason or even a decent 2nd half strategy (It may still be!) Let�s all hope that some of the above finally get their act together and start producing like we all thought they would or it will be tough road to hoe in the pitching categories. I hope I haven�t bent any noses with the player essays but it�s the way I see them and the way I�ll approach them in 2002!

So Sayeth the Fish!