Around the Diamond

Starting Pitchers: The Deepest Position Out There -- Don't Blow It!

            If you were with me last season, you probably remember that there was a lot of pre-draft buzz over starting pitching.  I said that protecting starting pitching was a mistake; that you could find quality starters throughout the draft.  Others were shouting that you needed to hold onto the top guys and use relatively high picks for front line starters.  Well, I’m standing by what I said last year – with one minor footnote*.  Pitching can be found everywhere if you know where to look.

            Last season, I gave you four very specific criteria to look for in drafting successful starting pitching later on in the draft.  While others were using their early picks on some of the big names like Johann Santana, Jon Smoltz and Roy Oswalt, you were loading up on offensive studs like Ryan Howard, Carlos Lee and Chase Utley while later snagging guys like Erik Bedard, Jeremy Bonderman, Ian Snell and Bronson Arroyo.  Not marquee names, but guys who definitely got the job done well enough to keep you in the top half of roto pitching stats.  So what were the criteria?  Pretty simple.  Check out the 3^rd year starters, check out guys that have switched from the AL to the NL , look for quality guys sitting in the shadows of the marquee players, and when it comes to scouring the veterans late, as my friend Keith has always said, “It’s all in the WHIP.”

            Before I go through each part, I can’t stress enough to you that a big part of winning your fantasy league is based in research.  The guys (or gals) that win leagues are usually the ones who do their homework.  Of course, there’s a certain amount of luck involved, but overall, the ones who crunch the numbers, analyze the stats, and make good choices based on their findings are the ones who come out on top.  So while this article here is a nice guideline, it is not the Bible.  Don’t come running to me to crap on my Horacio Ramirez call because you blindly took my word for it.  I’m just trying to steer you in the right direction.  There is plenty more research to do on your end.  That being said, let’s go to it.

            Let’s begin with the 3^rd year starters.  Conventional wisdom says that in a pitcher’s third year, he either gets it or he doesn’t.  Fantasy wisdom says that just like the “magical age of 27” for hitters, so goes the way of pitchers going into their third year.  But you have to look for guys that have made general improvements in their game.  Just because Atlanta’s Kyle Davies is going into his third year doesn’t mean he’ll ever lick the injury bug and give a full season with better than average strikeout numbers.  You need to see that they are progressing.  How’s his K/BB ratio?  Did he stay strong all year or did he fizzle out from too many innings pitched?  Players like Ervin Santana and Matt Cain should be the ones you are looking at.  These guys have brought their games to new levels each year and are primed for huge breakouts this season.  You can go over to RotoBuzz.com for my complete top 10 of third year guys.

            The next category you should be looking for if you’re trying to bargain shop is if the pitcher moved from the AL to the NL.  Traditionally, they do better.  Sure interleague play has diluted this a bit, as there’s more of an opportunity and more need for an NL team to scout an AL pitcher, but more importantly…something former AL pitchers love...they’re facing another pitcher up there instead of a DH.  You should see an increase in K’s and hopefully an improved WHIP and ERA.  Just look at Bronson Arroyo last season.  Amazing what he did in a Reds uniform, comparatively.  It just doesn’t seem to work the other way around; see: Carl Pavano.  Some guys you should be looking for are maybe Ted Lilly, Kirk Saarloos, Randy Johnson makes his return to the NL, and possibly even former Oriole and new Rockie, Rodrigo Lopez.  Barry Zito would be my first choice, but he’s likely to cost more than the other three.

Next, you should be looking at quality guys lurking in the shadows of the more hyped names.  Since a lot of people are already on Matt Cain’s jock, people are forgetting about Noah Lowry.  People are so in love with Jered Weaver that they’re overlooking Joe Saunders.  Sometimes it doesn’t have to be guys from the same team.  While Daisuke Matsuzaka is getting all of the attention, don’t be too surprised to see Kei Igawa quietly have a nice season of his own.

And finally, there’s the WHIP.  As I called it, the Glendon Rusch Rule.  If you’re sifting through the bargain bin of pitchers and you’re looking for some low budget, late round steals, always make sure you check the WHIP.  It is one of the most telling stats for a pitcher.  Does he walk a lot of guys?  Does he need lots of run support and defensive bail outs?  A lot of guys can pull a Jason Marquis…terrible ratios but get a lot of wins, but usually their luck runs out and their overall numbers rear their ugly heads.  I’d rather take a shot this year on Dave Bush than go overpay for Marquis and his win totals from last year.  You can pretty much tell when you’re looking through the vets available late.  If their career average WHIP is decent, take a shot.  If they look like Glendon Rusch’s, then steer clear.

So be smart about your drafting this year.  Do your research and you won’t have to panic when someone blows their 3^rd or 4^th pick on Oswalt.  You’ll be able to find quality arms later on in the draft…and it won’t be at the expense of your hitting.

* You have to know your league.  If it’s a new league and you’re starting from scratch, well, then this really doesn’t apply to you.  But if you’ve been in this league, keeper or not, for a little while, you need to study some of the trends.  For example, in my primary league (15 team mixed keeper league, 25 man rosters, 9 pitchers), there are several owners that ridiculously overvalue starting pitching.  Trades that involved front-line, or even up and coming, starters were incredibly difficult to pull off.  From year to year, the number of starters protected took a gradual increase.  Sometimes, in order to win a league like that, you need to roll with the punches and secure yourself some top pitching while you can.  You can grab your sleepers later on in the draft, but if everyone in your league is glomming top starters early, you have to protect yourself.

For a more in-depth look at the pitchers to draft this year as well as all the pre-draft fantasy advice you’ll nee, check out what’s going on over at RotoBuzz.com

Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and former fantasy baseball champion.  For questions, thoughts or comments you can write to him at howard.rotobuzz@yahoo.com