KingFish Tales

Sleepers?

So just what is a Sleeper? A long, long time ago in a galaxy far, far away… A Sleeper was identified as being a player that few fans recognized as someone having the potential to put up really good numbers in the coming season or the very near future. Just how do Sleepers come into being anyway? Well there are various ways ranging all the way from the farm player who may or may not get a cup of coffee in a September call-up to the big show, all the way up to a journeyman back-up finally getting a chance at a day to day job because the regular guy has a boo-boo on his pinkie. Well then Sleepers should be pretty easy to identify so what’s all the fuss about? Ok Spunky, settle yourself down and pull up a comfy sit down as the old Fish will attempt to separate the men from the boys. Throw another log on the fire and pour me a cold one while your up. Ya with me on this so far? Good then let’s get it started.

During the formative years of Roto and Fantasy baseball the Internet was not a source for getting player info. I know that kind of sounds like telling the kids that you used to watch only black and white TV but it’s the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Often the best source of player information was mouth to mouth or the Sporting News or the daily rags. That was pretty much it. Heck, even sports radio was unheard of. Forget the 24-hour sport information binges. ESPN wasn’t even dreamt of yet. We were lucky to get a few crumbs every now and then. I know an owner that got a hold of the St. Louis Cardinals trainer’s office and called in asking about Ozzie's health. He had been dinged up and the trainer gladly let him know that he would be back on the field by that weekend. Of course he didn’t as planned but shortly after that he was back in the saddle. I guess you get the point. We were information starved.

Today the world has certainly changed for the better for those seeking out sports news in general and baseball news in particular. The Internet gives it all. Stats, injury reports, transactions, contract status, depth charts, trade rumors and more in both the minors and major leagues. Fantasy baseball sites are all over the place. Chat rooms, forums, team sites, sports daily new sites, ESPN, USA Today, MLB, Yahoo leagues, fantasy sites and so many dot com’s that there really is almost too much to digest. Better than starving I guess but it certainly has had an effect on the ability to identify Sleepers. I have over 50 of my favorite sites book-marked right now. Of course the web isn’t the only place to get sleeper news these days. There are an abundance of monthly magazines devoted to the subject. There are soft/hard back books and veritable encyclopedias of baseball knowledge right down at the corner bookstore. We even have our own self help books, “How to Win Your League” etc., etc…Today’s problem does not come down to defining/identifying Sleepers as players that only you, or a very limited number of other owners, would have information on. The problem is everyone knows and that can detract from any advantage over the competition. Now a days almost everyone as the ability to log on and surf away to there hearts content. You can pour over statistics all night till the sun comes up and there is still more to look at. Getting that slight edge over your fellow owners means a whole lot more than just getting information on a player. Anyone can do that with the proper time and equipment. So what’s a Sleeper today?

Well I truly believe that the initial definition still holds true. “A Sleeper is identified as being a player that few fans recognized as someone having the potential to put up really good numbers in the coming season or the very near future.” Now the definition hasn’t changed much but guess what? The method of identifying a Sleeper has most certainly changed. In today’s information glutted environment it is not how little or how much player information you gather that spells success. It’s the quality of that information and what you do with it that counts. Benson and many, many others have made very successful careers out of analyzing data and projecting future player performance. It’s this quality analysis that will make all the difference when identifying a Sleeper.

Data analysis doesn’t mean reading or listening to all the hype about some new young 30 hr. stud down on the farm that is destined to win a job this spring or knowing that the major league club’s back up infielder has a career .290 BA average with some power but he just hasn’t been given the opportunity and then bam, the guy blocking him from a job blows out his shoulder. Data analysis goes much deeper than that. That so called rookie stud down on the farm that everyone has been talking about because of his big numbers; is he in a hitter friendly league like the PCL or in a pitchers league where no one else hits worth a lick? Can he run/field well enough to cover the spot at the big club level? Does that so called can’t miss stud hitter have hands of stone or a rubber band arm? That journey man back up with the .290 average that should get better with some playing time; Does he hit both the Rightie and Leftie’s equally well? Does he hit on the road as well as at home? Does that 30 hr. rookie sensation hit those home runs in bandbox parks or parks with wind and altitude effects? How about that live arm down on the farm that posted a nice 3.00 ERA? Just what was his walk to strikeout ratio and how did that compare to others in his league? What was his number of walks or K’s per inning? Was he a setup or situational guy that only faced Rightie or Leftie batters? Does he have the right pitch mix to fit the role of an open starter or closer spot (mastery of the 3 to 4 different pitches is desired for a starter but is highly unusual for the youngsters)? It really comes down to trying to determine just what the talents are of any player, young or old and how do the skills fit into the position that may arise on the team.

Needless to say there is a whole lot involved in picking Sleepers today. I could list dozens of guys and situations I’m watching right now but they would not mean much unless the right things fall into place at the right time for the right players. Names like Fogg, Kearns, Derek Bell (of all people), Helling, Dunn, Betemit, Rivas, Ben Davis and Hermanson and on and on. But does the data support their potential to be Sleeper? Will they be given a shot? Do they have a prior history that even suggests they may do well? Is the veteran in front of them having an off-season case of the mumps or end up in court in a messy divorce? You’ll have to determine all that and more by yourself. Do not rely solely on the experts because they can be just as wrong, just as often as you or I. A Sleeper today is truly a player that will surprise. The trick is to know how to sift through that ton of available data. Make a sound decision about their potential and hope that opportunity becomes reality. You do that and guess what? You have yourself a Sleeper.

Ok Fish, I hear you. So what’s the big deal anyway? I can pick up a free agent who’ll do almost as well or I’m strong in that category or position anyway, I don’t need no stinkin’ Sleeper.

As my eyes roll to the heavens my thoughts turn biblical, “Forgive them father, for they know not what they do.” Now this is happening while that little red guy on my shoulder is whispering in my ear, “Please allow me to introduce myself, I’m a man of wealth and taste….” Take a deep breath, that’s it, slowly inhale, now hold it, hold it a bit longer and now count down from ten while you slowly release it. Ah! See I’m better already. As relaxed as a breathe of cool spring air drifting across freshly cut infield grass. Life is good. There is once again peace and harmony in the world. Now where were we? Ah yes,

Ahem Spunky, I’m afraid I beg to differ. Identifying and picking up a true Sleeper can make or break your team or the big club. See Pujols, Oswalt, Wade Miller, Rollins or Kevin Millar, Bud Smith, Burrell, Furcal or, or, or…That’s right, how many of these guys did you identify as Sleepers last year? That’s just in the National League! How many were available for the taking and you passed them by? How many were on the team that won the championship in your league? Yeah, I thought so. What if you’re in a keeper or carry over league? You think there may be a guy you can get now that looks like they may go off big time in the future? Ya, think? How about if you are in a salary/money league? Wouldn’t a dirt cheap Pujol’s be real appealing going into the draft? Free up a little of that pocket change for a super-stud or two perhaps?

Whoa Fish, that is important all right but are their good and bad Sleepers?

Not really. There are Sleepers that never pan out because opportunity simply passes them by. The big club goes and picks up a big money free agent while the youngster sits down on the farm riding the bus from one minor league park to another. See the Yankees. That journey man back up on the bench finally gets a chance and blows a hammy first day out or that youngster finally gets dealt to a team that needs him to be an everyday player and then wham-mo, go directly to jail, do not pass go and do not collect two hundred dollars and it’s all over except for the fat lady singing. See the Buc’s Rios from last season for a good example of that. None of these circumstances make the identification as a Sleeper good or bad. You still did the work didn’t you? The break didn’t come your way this time is all. You know what my old man used to say? You can’t get ahead without sticking out your neck sometimes.

One word of caution on Sleepers for those of you in Keeper Leagues. Keeping one maybe two Sleepers at the most on your active roster at a time is a much preferred and safer method. If you can protect them on your DL, reserve or as farm keepers, that’s fine. Sleepers are gambles and you do not want to tie up valuable active roster slots with too many of them. Just do not go overboard on the active roster.

So it appears now that working on Sleepers may be worth its’ weight in gold, hey Spunky? You may have never of realized it until now but you better start working on identifying them. It takes a lot of time and patience to do a thorough job of researching all the data. Your teams’ future may depend on that Sleeper. Now get out there and dig out that raw data. Always, always I say, remember to completely analyze that data. Look for the right player with the right tools, the right team in the right park, the right fit in the right roster slot, at the right time and you to will have yourself a true, Sleeper!

So Sayeth the Fish!