This weekend we head to the all-important 5th race of the season. This is the weekend that the top 35 in owner points will be set for the first time this season. The teams have been going by last years final owner standings through this weekend and Kasey Kahne is still not in the top 35. That means that if he doesn’t move into the top 35 in points this weekend he will have to qualify his way into races.
This weekend we also get the debut of the Car of Tomorrow, which is the new body style mandated by NASCAR that the teams will be using more and more often. I don’t really see much of a difference with this car at Bristol but it could be a huge factor on the larger tracks that it will be used at in the near future.
My pick to win this weekend is Matt Kenseth. Matt has won 2 of the last 3 races at Bristol and is having another solid season so far this year. Matt also has 9 top 10 finishes in his last 10 races with 7 of those being top 5 finishes at Bristol. Matt will also have Robbie Reiser back as his crew chief this weekend after he served his 4-race suspension after Daytona.
Kurt Busch is the next favorite to win this weekend and has said that the Penske teams are ahead of the learning curve with the COT. Kurt has the perfect attitude to win at Bristol. A driver can’t get mad if he gets banged around at Bristol they just have to go out and dish it right back without taking themselves out of the race.
Kevin Harvick is another driver who has that attitude that it takes to win at Bristol. However after starting out on a hot streak at the beginning of the year Kevin has had his share of bad luck. The good news is that at Bristol a driver makes his own luck.
Jeff Gordon is off to one of his best starts in recent years and can get the job done at Bristol. He hasn’t won at Bristol since the 2002 season when he did the famous bump and run on Rusty Wallace with a few laps left in the race to head to victory lane.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been pretty good at Bristol recently and came away with a win here in 2004. His worst finish in the last 7 races at Bristol has been 11th and he literally ran away from the field when he went on to win in 2004.
Tony Stewart is still looking for his first win this season but hasn’t won at Bristol since 2001. Since that time Tony has only finished in the top 10 twice. On the other hand his teammate, Denny Hamlin has fared quite well in his 2 Bristol starts finishing 14th and 6th. Look for him to get better as time goes by on this track.
Kyle Busch seems to be learning to drive at Bristol more like his brother does. After having 28th and 33rd place finishes his first season last year he came back with finishes of 8th and 2nd and will be a contender this year.
Jimmie Johnson is either feast or famine at Bristol. Jimmie’s best finish at Bristol is 3rd and has a 15.5 average finish here. I don’t look for Johnson to win his 3rd race in a row this weekend but he could compete for another top 10 finish.
Mark Martin still leads the points race but will sit out the next 2 races as he said he would before the season started. It will be interesting to see if Mark can keep up his hot streak when he returns to the track in a few weeks.
Yahoo Picks for Bristol
Group A
Matt Kenseth (starter)
Kevin Harvick
Group B
Kurt Busch (starter)
Kyle Busch (starter)
Denny Hamlin
Elliott Sadler
Group C
Sterling Marlin (starter)
Reed Sorenson
Top 5 Overall at Bristol
1. Matt Kenseth
2. Kurt Busch
3. Kyle Busch
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Jeff Gordon
Dark Horses: Sterling Marlin, Elliott Sadler
Stay Away From: Kasey Kahne
As always you can Email me with any questions, comments or suggestions at gutsamaniac@hotmail.com. Good luck once again this weekend!