3 Point Play

Early Rookie Fantasy Projections

#1- Brandon Roy, SG, Portland. Early on, Roy should charge out of the gates and lead the early polls for Rookie of the Year. From a fantasy perspective it should be no different. Roy was a four year player at Washington, brings a complete game to the table and will be doing it all on one of the worst teams in the league. He should be the first rookie off the board and an early to mid-round selection overall. Projection: 17 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 45% FG.

#2- Adam Morrison, SF, Charlotte. What happens when you stick a deadly offensive player on one of the most offensively inept teams in the league? You'll see the answer to that question this year in Charlotte. Last year Charlotte relied on the offense to come from names such as Gerald Wallace, Primoz Brezec and Raymond Felton. While all solid players and possible future stars, none are ready to carry a hefty offensive load. Enter, Morrison. The kid can flat our score and while not being a particularly good 3-point bomber, can score in nearly every other way. It may take him a bit to adjust to the pace, size, athleticism and quickness of the NBA game, so don't get too angry if he starts off rather slowly. While Morrison is a great offensive player, the rest of his game lacks much substance. He doesn't board overly well, has very slow feet which will prohibit him from being a big steals guy and is so offensive minded that it leads me to think his assist totals will stay on the low side. The Wally Szczerbiak comparisons--outside of looks-- are eerily similar. Projection: 16 points, 5 boards, 46% FG.

#3- Randy Foye, PG/SG, Minnesota. Foye is my pick for Rookie of the Year. While Brandon Roy will most likely carry better all around numbers throughout the year, it is my belief that it will be Foye's play that leads the Timberwolves back to the playoffs. From a fantasy standpoint, he's going to get all the minutes he can handle as soon as he can handle them. I'm expecting him to start from the season opener and put up ridiculous numbers. The Wolves need a perimeter scorer badly and Foye can do it in every way possible. I don't believe Marcus Banks will be returning, leaving the Wolves PG situation a bit of a mess. If so, you could see Foye as the starting PG next to Ricky Davis and/or Trenton Hassell. While he does consider himself a PG, he's got a lot to learn at the position in the NBA. He may start slowly but he'll be a big time producer mid-year. Projection: 17 points, 4 rebounds, 5 assists, 44% FG

#4- Rudy Gay, SF, Memphis. Jerry West did it again. He pulled out a deal for a player that many considered to be the best talent in this draft for only Shane Battier. The only thing people seemed to question was his desire to really be the best. To be honest, it never made any sense to me. He played two years in one of the best programs on the collegiate level with a cast of teammates that have also been first round picks. Last year, Charlie Villanueva was drafted sixth overall with the same type of question marks and went on to have the best rookie campaign other than Chris Paul. You can't doubt Rudy's skill set. He'll step right in and be a solid contributor on a very good team from the get-go. While he may have problems creating offensive opportunities for himself, he has the quickness to get inside, draw fouls and get to the line. Other than scoring, you can count on him hitting the boards, shooting a decent FG% and dishing out a decent amount of assists for a rookie SF. Projection: 13 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists

#5- Shelden Williams, PF/C, Atlanta. Atlanta needs as much help as possible inside and Shelden will deliver. Atlanta has solid prospects, yet none ready to deliver anything on a consistent basis. Their starting center, Zaza Pachulia, is a capable starter and a decent offensive option but is not the type of rebounder, shot-blocker or the physical specimen that Williams is. With Williams, you can count on near double-digit rebound totals per game, about 2-3 blocked shots and minimal offensive output at the start. Projection: 10 points, 10 rebounds, 2.5 blocks, 50% FG

#6- Andrea Bargnani, SF/PF, Toronto. Bargnani is a guy that's hard to project out from a rookie standpoint. More likely than not he'll follow the curve of someone such as Nowitzki or Stojakovic (a solid rookie campaign where he shows flashes of brilliance and a nice shooting touch) rather than someone such as Pau Gasol or Yao Ming, who stepped in and provided meaningful minutes immediately. Personally, I think he'll start on the bench and eventually work his way into the starting lineup. I just wouldn't expect the #1-overall-pick type numbers. He'd be worth using a late-round pick for. Projection: 10 points, 4 rebounds, 25 minutes.

#7 Ronnie Brewer, SG, Utah. Brewer's a guy I think could be a real sleeper from a fantasy rookie standpoint. He slipped a bit further than most projected but went to a team that has no real opposition in front of him. He should be the starter from beginning to end this year and earn big minutes in the process. His offensive game consists of getting to the hoop rather than being a standstill jump-shooter. He's equally adept at getting other teammates involved and could probably swing over and play PG in a pinch. Defensively he's fairly aggressive and can read passing lanes well, which could lead to a good amount of steals. Projection: 12 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 1.5 steals, 30 minutes.

#8 LaMarcus Aldridge, C/PF, Portland. It'll be interesting to see how the year unfolds for Aldridge. He'll be a very good pro, no doubt. But with Zach Randolph as the starting PF and a re-signed Joel Przybilla starting in the middle, it's hard to say whether or not Aldridge will receive a large enough amount of minutes to warrant a high fantasy pick. My inkling is that they'll bring him along slowly as well. There are certain factors that could thrust him into a more prominent starting role: 1) Whether or not Randolph ends up being dealt and 2) if Przybilla can remain healthy for an entire year. For the sake of McMillans sanity, let's hope factor number one happens. It will not only speed up Aldridge's development but dump an attitude that you'd rather not have around. Projection: 11 points, 5 boards, 48% FG, 27 minutes.

#9- Tyrus Thomas, SF/PF, Chicago. The only reason I don't have Thomas rated higher is due to the fact that Chicago is loaded. I think he'll turn out to be a big-time player in this league, I just don't believe it'll be this year. As much as they need his athleticism, rebounding, shot blocking and toughness, he's still very raw. He should get consistent minutes off the bench with Wallace, Nocioni and Deng having an early edge in experience. His minutes will increase as the year goes on and subsequently, so will his stats. Worthy of a late round selection. Projection: 9 points, 6 rebounds, 2 blocks

#10- JJ Redick, SG, Duke. Back problems or not, Redick will most likely start off the year on the bench depending on how the free agent situation with DeShawn Stevenson unfolds. Orlando needs a perimeter offensive threat badly and Redick should be able to deliver. While being a bit short for SG, you can't doubt his ability to be a bomber from the outside. Unfortunately, that's all you'll really get with Redick. He's slow and horrible on defense, so dont count on many defensive stats. Ditto with rebounding. Redick's only value this year (and probably most in any other year he plays) will be his value as a 3-point threat. Projection: 10 points, a schlong of 3-pointers, nothing else.

Best of the rest: Patrick O'Bryant, Cedric Simmons, Rodney Carney, Shannon Brown and Kyle Lowry.