Swing for the Fences

Stay the Course with Stars

This spring has been especially brutal to some of the league’s top superstars. The all-star roster of players who will not play on opening day is long and distinguished: Nomar Garciaparra, Jeter, Ken Griffey, Greg Maddux, Kevin Brown, Adrian Beltre, John Smoltz, Shane Reynolds, Benson, Javy Lopez, Mitch Melusky and Vaughn. This list of walking wounded has many rethinking their rosters and looking to make something happen. Get a grip, shaky; it is a long season.

Benson and Reynolds, two truly fine hurlers, will be back by mid to late April (Benson could be out longer). Jeter is only out for a week or so. Griffey will maybe even pinch-hit opening day. Nomar and Smoltz could be problems throughout the season, but you should have known that when you landed the injury-prone shortstop and rehabbing Braves’ ace. Melusky and Vaughn are out for the season and, therefore, out of the picture. But even then, if in a keeper league, it isn’t wise to dump those guys for nothing of real value.

One thing about injuries is they heal, and with today’s state of rapid rehabilitation, players are often back as good as new quickly. It is much wiser to replace your injured starter with someone already on your roster than to offer up a trade based on the injury. You are not in the position of power when making these type of trade offers and will be acting out of desperation. This is the time other owners dream about, acquiring a superstar for little in return. The fantasy owner who is willing to trade Nomar because of his wrist injury for Tony Womack and Kenny Rogers is the fantasy owner who just ended his season. Nomar’s partial season, combined with a backup like say Christian Guzman, will still give your shortstop position better numbers than Tony Womack. The throw-in of an average to below average player like Rogers adds nothing of value to your team. Guys like Rogers are available anywhere at anytime.

The same can be said when guys are cold to start the season. Last year, Jeff Bagwell was off to a below average beginning through May. He was hitting a little but nothing like he usually does. If you decided Bags was in the midst of a down year and got rid of him, you were kicking yourself come August when he was tearing the cover off the ball and putting up huge numbers carrying your opponent’s team to the playoffs or championship.

Conversely, if you have a jumpy owner in your league, the best way to capitalize is by praying on those quick to the pull the trigger on deals based on injury. You can always low-ball a guy up against an injury wall. If you think he is willing to play, keep on him and you may land yourself a real stud for almost nothing.

Preparing for injuries in baseball is tougher than other sports. Picking up Trent Green to backup Kurt Warner in fantasy football is a solid play. Picking up Craig Grebeck to backup Nomar is not helpful. It is much more important to balance your team in baseball. Having an all-around lineup can hide injury deficiencies for the short term. You’ll never be able to replace completely your lost star, but that is why injuries hurt.

The other thing about injuries is they will happen to everyone. The owner who escapes the season without an injury to a key player is the owner who will wear the crown come postseason. But with more and more stars coming down with nagging injuries, more and more fantasy owners are feeling the pain.

Superstars are superstars for a reason – they put up superstar numbers on a consistent basis. You have to let them carry out the season and not overreact in April and May. Almost always, you will be burned if you bail on the guys in midstream. There are exceptions, of course, to this rule. But if you play the percentages, really the only way to succeed in fantasy sports, you have to live with your stars and die with your stars.